NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 95.5 | Implied Team Total | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Malcolm Brogdon | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Thon Maker | Projected Starters | Terry Rozier | Jaylen Brown | Semi Ojeleye | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | DvP | 3 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 27 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 6 | 2 | 27 | 3 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 8 | 18 | 23 | 5 | N/A | |
Milwaukee Bucks
Nothing is better than a game seven! This is going to be a fun game, it’s win or go home for the Bucks and Celtics. Milwaukee is a 4.5 point road underdog and this game has a 196.5 total. This game will be a lot of fun to watch because it is a game seven, but in DFS it is the least appealing game tonight.
This is a game that is not all that appealing when you look at the total, but when you look at the salaries on some Buck players, you start to gain more interest. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the first underpriced player on the Bucks at $10,100 on DraftKings. On FanDuel at $11,500, I think he is overpriced and you can spend your salary elsewhere. The price on DraftKings is very interesting and the real debate becomes would you rather play Giannis at that price or Kevin Durant for $400 less?? I would prefer Durant at that price and in the matchup against the Pelicans which probably leads me to fading Giannis. I don’t love the idea of fading a star like Giannis in this must win game, but I just prefer Durant for cheaper. If we get word that Curry is playing, then I would pivot off Durant to Giannis. It’s only a two-game slate and we must take stands somewhere, so I will likely be off Giannis on tonight’s slate. Khris Middelton’s price has taken a huge hit recently. It’s weird seeing his price tag at only $6900 on DraftKings and that makes him an elite play at that price. I doubt I will have a ton of exposure to the Bucks but at that price it is tough to not get shares of Middleton in your lineup. Middleton has the best matchup on the Bucks and has been the player I have been most interested in on the Bucks side of the ball during this series. That won’t change tonight, he will be my favorite Bucks player to roster again in a big must win game. I should mention on FanDuel I like Middleton as well, but prefer him more on DraftKings.
Eric Bledsoe is insanely cheap on DraftKings at $5800. I hate this matchup for him but at this price there is still a lot of upside in tournaments. He could easily pay off that price if he gets going, but I will likely not force him on my rosters. I think he is a fine secondary play that you should get exposure to if you are playing multiple teams. FanDuel he is an easy fade at $7500, which is way too much for this matchup. With Henson out, Jabari Parker has really stepped up and been a bright spot for the Bucks. I like his price and think he is a nice safe option that has a solid floor with some upside as well. Parker is a secondary play that I like in both cash games and tournaments. Thon Maker is the last player that I want to discuss on the Bucks. We knew that he had to regress a little bit and he surely did the last two games. Thon is only $3800 and is in play as a value play. I can’t do it in cash games, but I think in tournaments you can still take a shot on him. I won’t list him as an elite or secondary play, but I still think he is viable to roster. You just must decide if you can stomach the risk that comes with him. He is out of play for me on FanDuel because I will likely just plug in Horford or Davis over there.
Notable Injuries John Henson (out)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.5 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -11.0 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.5 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,500 | $5,800 | $13,200 | 34.7 | -6.8 | 31.4 | 0.4 | 1.10 | 23.6% | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $4,300 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 24.0 | -10.1 | 29.9 | -4.2 | 0.80 | 18.1% | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,800 | $6,900 | $13,400 | 35.4 | 5.3 | 36.4 | 2.6 | 0.97 | 22.2% | 6 | 20 | 27 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,500 | $10,100 | $19,200 | 51.8 | -0.1 | 36.8 | 2.6 | 1.41 | 28.0% | 8 | 1 | 3 |
| Thon Maker | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 16.7 | 3.2 | 0.74 | 12.5% | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Jabari Parker | $5,400 | $5,600 | $11,100 | 23.1 | -0.9 | 24.0 | -1.6 | 0.96 | 21.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Matthew Dellavedova | $2,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 11.9 | -4.1 | 18.7 | -5.3 | 0.64 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Khris Middleton
Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker
Boston Celtics
I am hoping that my Boston Celtics can come through tonight with a nice victory! As a fan I will enjoy watching this one, but will also look to play some of these players in DFS. The addition of Marcus Smart has hurt some of the Celtics plays, but I still think there are enough players to have interest in. The Celtics are 4.5 point home favorites in a 196.5 total.
Terry Rozier is a guy that I don’t love on DraftKings, but prefer more on FanDuel. He isn’t a play that I love, but I think on a site like FanDuel where you have to play two point guards he is in play at $6900. His price on DraftKings looks good at $6600, but most players have appealing prices and I prefer other options in that range and at that position. “(player-popup #jaylen-brown)Jaylen Brown”:/players/jaylen-brown-35181’s production has certainly taken a hit since the return of Marcus Smart, but at $6500 and $6600, he is tough for me to avoid. He is one of my favorite plays on the Celtics at his price and I expect him to play close to 40 minutes, step up and have a big game. Jayson Tatum is a solid play at only $6000 on DraftKings, but like Rozier I prefer Tatum on FanDuel. Since I must play two players at small forward I feel more inclined to give Tatum a stronger look. I also will be looking to pay up at Center on FanDuel for Anthony Davis and if that is the case it might be tough to get Davis with Durant. This is way Tatum is in play for me more on FanDuel because he seems like a great play where you must play two small forwards. He is fine on DraftKings at that price, but I just prefer to get my exposure on FanDuel. Marcus Smart brings a lot to the floor defensively for the Celtics, but that doesn’t generate a ton of fantasy points. He has an appealing price around the industry and if you plugged him in as a value I wouldn’t hate it. I just think there is more value in the mid-tier and think I would prefer to pay down further for other value options. The last Celtics play that I want to discuss is Al Horford. He is one of my other Center’s on FanDuel that I want to roster because the position is so thin. The problem on FanDuel is that the price is so much at $7700 that I likely just find my way to Davis instead or pay all the way down. I prefer my exposure to Horford on DraftKings at $6900 against a Bucks team that we have targeted all year long against opposing bigs. I like his price a lot there and think that he has a great floor and ceiling. Semi Ojelye might start and yes, he may be $2800, but we can’t expect much from him. The minutes have been there, but I can’t stomach his production even at that price.
Notable Injuries None
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | $6,900 | $6,600 | $12,000 | 23.9 | 10.1 | 25.9 | 9.8 | 0.92 | 20.0% | 10 | 3 | 8 |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,600 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 25.2 | 9.6 | 30.7 | 6.8 | 0.82 | 18.5% | 14 | 12 | 18 |
| Semi Ojeleye | $3,000 | $2,800 | $6,000 | 6.7 | -2.0 | 15.8 | -0.6 | 0.42 | 8.0% | 16 | 5 | 23 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,200 | $6,000 | $12,500 | 26.0 | 3.9 | 30.5 | 1.9 | 0.85 | 17.0% | 2 | 10 | 5 |
| Al Horford | $7,700 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 32.1 | 5.6 | 31.6 | 4.1 | 1.02 | 17.8% | 30 | 27 | N/A |
| Marcus Smart | $5,100 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 24.3 | 3.7 | 29.9 | -5.0 | 0.81 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Morris | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.2 | -1.9 | 26.7 | 1.8 | 0.87 | 20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jaylen Brown
Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum (prefer on FanDuel) and Al Horford (prefer on DraftKings)
New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
| New Orleans Pelicans | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 224.0 |  | Vegas Total | 224.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.0 | Vegas Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.5 | Implied Team Total | 116.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Nikola Mirotic | Anthony Davis | Projected Starters | Andre Iguodala | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | JaVale McGee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 21 | 11 | 26 | 6 | DvP | 17 | 26 | 26 | 17 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 11 | 24 | 3 | 25 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 1 | |
New Orleans Pelicans
This might be the series that I am most looking forward to in round 2, especially if Curry remains out. I think a lot us slept on the Pelicans and forgot about playoff Rondo, Jrue and The Brow. The Pelicans come into this game as seven-point road underdogs in a 223 total. This game has almost a 30-point difference from the first game and is going to be the game to target on this slate.
Anthony Davis is expensive, but for good reason, he is Anthony freaking Davis. The guy is awesome and should dominate the Warriors down low throughout this series. If I could build a player in a video game to beat the Warriors, he would probably look a lot like Anthony Davis. In three games against the Warriors this year Davis is averaging 64.2 DraftKings points per game! Davis is an elite play and a great spend up option the question isn’t if Davis is going to play well, the question is will the value around you get there and does this make him the most optimal play?? I love Davis and I think he is a great play today, but if you don’t love the value around him I understand fading him. I will not and will have a ton of exposure to him in my tournament teams. I think on FanDuel he is an absolute lock with so much opportunity cost at the position. It’s such a weak position on FanDuel that I am just going to plug him in and let everyone else make a mistake and get cute fading him.
Next player I want to talk about is Playoff Rondo! Rajon Rondo is still way too cheap on FanDuel at $7100 and is a lock over there. I will lock in Rondo and Davis in most of my FanDuel lineups and think he is going to crush that price and be a big threat in this series. The fast paced environment fits him well and gives him more opportunities for triple doubles. Don’t fade Rondo in this spot. On DraftKings, it’s a little bit of a different story. I like him a lot and think he is a strong play, but I think a case can be made to go Jrue over Rondo for only $300 more. Either way Rondo is an elite play for me and someone that I want to be overweight on in tournaments. Jrue Holiday is another guy that I want to be overweight on because I think his price is about $500 too cheap on both sites. Jrue is another elite option that I am going to make sure to be overweight on in tournaments. E’Twaun Moore is a nice solid fill in play at his price around the industry. With a slate lacking value, I think he will fall into a bunch of my lineups because he is a safe option and will be listed a secondary play. My last play that I want to get exposure to would be Nikola MIrotic. At $7400 and $7900 he just seems a tad underpriced and has a massive ceiling in tournaments. Mirotic has been impressive this postseason and is an elite play that I want to be overweight on in tournaments. The Pelicans main four players in Rondo, Jrue, Davis and Mirotic are all options that I want to get more exposure then the field
Notable Injuries None
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -4.2 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 12.5 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $7,100 | $7,500 | $14,300 | 27.0 | 13.1 | 26.2 | 9.2 | 1.03 | 18.3% | 11 | 11 | 2 |
| Jrue Holiday | $8,300 | $7,800 | $14,200 | 37.7 | 6.8 | 36.1 | 1.3 | 1.04 | 21.8% | 10 | 21 | 11 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,400 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 21.5 | -5.0 | 31.5 | -3.0 | 0.68 | 14.6% | 8 | 11 | 24 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $7,900 | $7,400 | $13,800 | 30.1 | 14.2 | 27.2 | 10.1 | 1.11 | 20.5% | 6 | 26 | 3 |
| Anthony Davis | $12,500 | $11,100 | $21,200 | 55.0 | 5.4 | 36.4 | 2.4 | 1.51 | 25.9% | 16 | 6 | 25 |
| Ian Clark | $2,500 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 12.4 | -1.4 | 19.7 | 0.3 | 0.63 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic
Secondary Plays – E’Twaun Moore
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are expected to be without Steph Curry, which means we still have some usage to go around on the Warriors. A lot of that will be sucked up by Kevin Durant and he is going to be one of the better spend up options on the slate. His price on DraftKings at $9700 is cray and he also makes for a tough matchup for the Pelicans. No one can really guard him and will be a matchup nightmare all series long. Kevin Durant is an elite play and one that I want a lot of exposure to. I also like him on FanDuel where you are forced to play two small forwards. I just would prefer to prioritize Davis over Durant on FanDuel though. Draymond Green is an easy fade for me at his current price of $8400 and $7700. He can certainly have that massive Draymond Green game and if that happens I will simply lose. I just think that price is too much and that he is more than likely to not reach value than other plays on the slate. Klay Thompson gets lost in the shuffle because he hasn’t flashed a ton of upside and I prefer other shooting guards like Brown, Jrue and Middleton. Klay is another Warriors option that I will have no exposure to on this slate.
The only other Warriors players that I have interest in are value plays. I really like David West at $3300 on DraftKings. You can’t play him on FanDuel because he is a center but on DraftKings he is one of my favorite value plays on a slate lacking a ton of value. They will likely need his size to help defensively on Davis and I don’t think McGee will get the extra minutes. I think I will go more to the crafty veteran in David West who is tough in the paint and can cover Davis well defensively without getting into foul trouble. I can’t believe I am saying this, but David West looks like one of the elite value plays on a slate that has not a ton of value. Andre Iguodala is another good value on this slate at only $4200 and $4000. They should need him defensively and fits this up and down game style well. I will list Iguodala as another elite value and someone that I will be targeting heavily on a slate that again, has no value plays that I am in love with. The last guy I want to discuss is a FanDuel specific price play in Kevon Looney. I won’t touch him on DraftKings but for only $3000 on FanDuel it is interesting. I don’t love the Power Forward position and that cheap price of $3000 could help jam in Davis and Durant to make the most optimal team. They should also need his size and if he plays 20 minutes for only $3000, I don’t see how he can’t be a decent value play.
Notable Injuries Steph Curry (expected out)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 113.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.5 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Iguodala | $4,200 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 18.7 | 2.5 | 25.4 | 1.7 | 0.74 | 11.5% | 15 | 17 | 16 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,400 | $6,200 | $13,100 | 30.4 | 0.2 | 34.3 | 5.0 | 0.89 | 20.7% | 25 | 26 | 1 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,200 | $9,700 | $19,900 | 47.2 | -0.2 | 34.2 | 3.0 | 1.38 | 26.9% | 16 | 26 | 28 |
| Draymond Green | $8,400 | $7,700 | $15,500 | 36.0 | 5.5 | 32.7 | 4.9 | 1.10 | 16.7% | 23 | 17 | 11 |
| JaVale McGee | $4,000 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 1.25 | 16.5% | 14 | 19 | 1 |
| Quinn Cook | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 16.8 | -5.2 | 22.4 | -5.0 | 0.75 | 16.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kevon Looney | $3,000 | $3,200 | $6,700 | 12.3 | 2.5 | 13.8 | 6.2 | 0.89 | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David West | $4,200 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 17.3 | -0.1 | 13.7 | 2.3 | 1.26 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |