NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 22nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Portland at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – EVEN SPREAD, 203 OVER/UNDER
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Wright-Batum-Lopez
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Portland
We are getting to an interesting point in the NBA season. We have teams that are tanking, teams that are gearing up for the playoffs, and teams that are still fighting for their playoff lives. There have been enough late scratches this week to cover an entire month. The fact that so many teams have different motivations makes it even more difficult to predict rotations and fantasy production.
The first game of the night features two teams that are still fighting for playoff positioning. LaMarcus Aldridge has been ruled out for tonight’s game which means Nicolas Batum, Dorell Wright, Damian Lillard, and Robin Lopez should all see a nice uptick in production. Batum has recorded at least 12 points and 14 rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games. Dorell Wright makes a nice punt play once again, he has scored at least 18 FP’s in 4 of his last 5 games.
- Damian Lillard – I love taking Lillard when Aldridge is out. Aldridge is responsible for so much production that when he is out of the lineup, other players really have to step up. Lillard has scored 37+ in 3 of his last 4 games and has a nice matchup against the Bobcats who are ranked 22nd against PG’s this season.
- Robin Lopez – With Aldridge out, Lopez is averaging 34 minutes over his last 5 games. He sees an uptick in rebounds and shot attempts when Aldridge is out of the lineup and he has a favorable matchup against Jefferson who is not the most physical defender.
Charlotte
The Bobcats like to slow the pace of the game down, but this will be a pace-up type of game for the Bobcats as the Blazers are one of the faster paced teams in the league. With Aldridge out of the lineup, the Blazers are trying to make up for their lack of size by pushing the pace. This is a favorable matchup for the Bobcats, but there are really only two viable fantasy options here. Gerald Henderson and Josh McRoberts are deep sleepers, but neither make great cash game plays tonight.
- Al Jefferson – Tonight is a great time to buy low on Jefferson. He has scored under 40 FP’s in 3 straight games and has had under 20 shot attempts in each. His price has come down a bit and he should bounce back nicely tonight against the Blazers who are below average defensively against Centers.
- Kemba Walker – Walker is averaging 35 FP’s per game at home this season and draws a terrific matchup against the Blazers who continuously give up big games to opposing PG’s. The Blazers have surrendered the 4th most FP’s to PG’s this season.
Houston at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Houston -8, 204 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Asik
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Jack-Waiters-Gee-Thompson-Hawes
Houston
The Rockets are 8 point favorites tonight against the extremely short-handed Cavs. Dwight Howard is considered a game-time decision to play tonight and if there is any lingering soreness in his ankle, the Rockets will likely err on the side of caution and keep him out. Luckily, this is one of the earlier games so we will know his status before tip-off.
If Dwight has to sit out, both Terrence Jones and Omer Asik see a huge uptick in minutes and production. Both have reached and exceeded value with Dwight out the last two games. Patrick Beverley makes a nice punt play at PG, he has at least 24 FP’s in 3 straight games and the Cavs have not defended the PG position well this season.
- James Harden – Waiters has been a nice spark plug offensively for the Cavs, but he is not a great defender on the other end of the floor. Harden would see a small fantasy boost if Dwight has to sit, but I like him in this matchup either way. This game should be high scoring and Harden should have no problem getting to the rim.
- Chandler Parsons – Parsons makes a nice play tonight at SF. His price is always in that mid-range and he has a high floor which makes him a solid cash game play. Plus Parsons isn’t going to have to deal with Luol Deng who has already been ruled out.
Cleveland
The Cavs are plagued with injuries right now. Kyrie Irving will miss tonight’s game and will be joined by both Luol Deng and C.J. Miles. Their absence gives a nice fantasy boost to Dion Waiters, Jarrett Jack, Matthew Dellavedova and Alonzo Gee. Dellavedova must be in March Madness mode as he had a huge game off the bench the other night. I like him as a punt play against the Rockets.
- Dion Waiters – Waiters has scored 34 and 43 FP’s in the two games since Kyrie Irving went down with his injury. Waiters has also played over 40 minutes in each game. He is basically their entire offense at this point and may have to play close to 40 minutes again tonight. Love the matchup and the upside and I don’t mind overpaying for him.
- Jarrett Jack – Jack doesn’t have the upside that Waiters has, but with all of the injuries, he is going to see all the minutes he can handle once again. His price may be a bit much on DS, but he’s very much in play on the other major sites.
Philadelphia at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -16.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Wroten-Thompson-Young-Sims
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Philadelphia
The Sixers and Bulls are both playing in back to back games tonight and MCW and Thaddeus Young may be playing on tired legs after both playing at least 39 minutes last night. These two teams played a few nights ago in Philly and the Sixers managed to keep the game within striking distance. I’m not sure that they will have the same success tonight though. The Bulls are 16.5 point favorites and have to be hungry after getting beaten badly by the Pacers last night. Michael Carter-Williams and Tony Wroten both make decent tournament plays, but should be avoided for cash games as the Bulls are ranked 8th or better in fantasy points allowed against all positions this season.
Chicago
When a team is facing the Sixers or the Lakers, all players from that team see a nice fantasy boost. It’s pretty simple, the Sixers are the league’s fastest paced team and own the league’s worst defense. A mini-Bulls stack is certainly in play tonight. The Sixers are ranked last or dead last against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed. This game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, but with the Bulls playing at a slow pace and Coach Thibs willingness to leave starters in when the game is already out of hand, we don’t have to factor that in. Joakim Noah is a solid play at Center, but he needs at least 50-55 FP’s to reach value at his current price.
- Taj Gibson – Gibson makes a terrific play tonight because he not only has a great matchup, but his minutes are basically guaranteed regardless of the outcome of the game. Even if the Bulls are up big, Gibson should see some garbage time. He put up 19 points and 13 rebounds against this same team the other night.
- Jimmy Butler – Butler makes a great cash game play. He’s played at least 45 minutes in 3 straight games and I will take 40 minutes against the Sixers any day of the week. Butler had 32 FP’s against the Sixers the other night and should be able to repeat that performance.
- Mike Dunleavy – Dunleavy is cheap tonight and is one of my favorite plays at SF. Dunleavy doesn’t create his own shots well, but the Sixers are so bad defensively that Dunleavy should get plenty of open looks.
Indiana at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -1, 177 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Indiana
The Pacers and Bulls combined for 180 points last night and the Pacers and Grizzlies should have a very similar game tonight. Even though there are instances where players have big fantasy performances in these types of games (Paul George last night), all we can do is make the best decision based on the information that we have. With the Grizzlies #3 ranked defense and the total set at 177 points, that’s enough information for me to avoid the Pacers’ players tonight.
Memphis
The Grizzlies may have to face the Pacers without the reigning defensive player of the year. Marc Gasol tweaked his left ankle in last night’s game against the Heat and was seen in a walking boot after the game. That does not bode well for his chances to suit up tonight. If he is forced to sit out, Kosta Koufos and Zach Randolph would both see an uptick in production. I’m not sure if that would be enough to warrant fantasy consideration though. The Pacers are ranked 2nd against PF’s and Centers this season. This slow paced game between two of the best defenses in the league should be avoided altogether tonight.
Miami at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – Miami -5.5, 199.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Bosh-Oden
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Stiemsma
Miami
The Heat put together a nice second half to beat the Grizzlies at home last night. Tonight, they travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans who also picked up a win last night. The Heat are only favored by 5.5 points which seems a bit low, but the Pelicans are close to .500 at home this season and when in doubt, trust the Vegas line.
The Pelicans have defended wing players well this season (ranked 11th against SG’s and 7th against SF’s), but we could see Dwyane Wade sit out tonight’s game as he has sat out in back to backs for most of the season. If Wade does happen to sit, this gives a nice fantasy boost to LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen. Make sure to check the status of Dwyane GTD Wade and plug either LeBron or Wade in if Wade ends up sitting out.
New Orleans
The Pelicans face a Heat defense that owns a top 10 defense, however the Heat have given up at least 100 points in 3 of their last 5 games. The Heat are the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league as they are only grabbing 47.2% of all rebounds. The Heat gave up a big game to Zach Randolph last night and the BROW has a terrific matchup tonight. Eric Gordon hurt his knee last night and is considered questionable for tonight’s game. If he has to sit out, give a nice boost to both Austin Rivers and Brian Roberts. Tyreke Evans continues to make a nice tournament play, he has scored 38+ FP’s in 6 of his last 9 games.
- Anthony Davis – The Heat can’t defend the paint and they can’t rebound. That’s a nice combination for Davis whose floor has been around 50 FP’s lately. Davis should be considered the top overall option on the board tonight. Target him on any site that doesn’t have him listed as the most expensive player.