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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, May 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-10-24 17:16:15

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors – Saturday, 8:30 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Toronto Raptors
clevelandnba Vegas Total 198.5 torontonba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Sprd -5.0 Vegas Sprd 5.0
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 96.8
Team Pace 95.50 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo
Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7 Opp. Season 17 7 6 2 1
Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4 Last 3 Weeks 21 5 24 9 11

Cleveland Cavaliers

Series Record: 2-0

The Raptors put up a fight in the first half of Game 2, but so far they have been severely outmatched in this series. The Cavaliers are still undefeated in the playoffs and we are finally starting to hear some buzz that they are going to be able to challenge the winner that comes out of the West. The Cavaliers will look to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series with a win tonight in Toronto. They are listed as 5-point favorites with an implied team total of 101.8 points.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,800
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 1.27 FP/Min: 1.30
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.6 37.3 1.7 33.3 -2.3
FPPG (FD) 45.0 47.3 2.3 47.4 2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 25.2 -2.2 27.7 0.4

Despite playing only 31 minutes per game in this series, James is averaging just under 50 fantasy points per contest. He has been the best player on the floor in every game that the Cavaliers have played in so far in the postseason. Now that the series shifts to Toronto, we could see James play upwards of 40 minutes. He is right there with Kevin Durant as the top small forward on the board.

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $8,200
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.04 FP/Min: 0.95
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 31.5 35.8 4.3 36.5 5.0
FPPG (FD) 30.8 37.1 6.4 37.5 6.7
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 25.5 -0.3 24.5 -1.2

Irving has outplayed Kyle Lowry in the first two games of the series. His price is also considerably cheaper, so if you are looking to fade Russell Westbrook or Stephen Curry, I would roster Irving before Lowry. He has seen a major boost in minutes, usage rate, and fantasy production in the postseason and his $7,200 price tag on FanDuel is awfully enticing.

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $8,400
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.05 FP/Min: 1.08
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 31.5 33.2 1.7 31.8 0.3
FPPG (FD) 32.4 34.8 2.5 32.9 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 21.8 1.8 21.8 1.8

Love hasn’t played bad in this series, but at his price, you expect more than 23 or 29 fantasy points. He basically needs at least 35 fantasy points to meet value. While that is certainly in his wheelhouse, power forward has been an easy position to punt with only four teams left. When you talk about players that you want to spend up on, Love just isn’t at the top of the list.

Tristan Thompson
tristan-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,700 Salary: $5,100
Position: C Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.64 FP/Min: 0.76
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.7 28.9 1.2 29.3 1.6
FPPG (FD) 21.3 18.5 -2.8 20.7 -0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 9.9 8.5 -1.4 8.1 -1.8

Thompson didn’t play well in Game 1, but that was more of a fluke than anything else. He bounced back nicely with 25 fantasy points in Game 2. Assuming tonight’s game stays close, Thompson could see upwards of 35 minutes. He is a very sneaky play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, although he is far from a must play.

J.R. Smith
j.r.-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,700 Salary: $5,400
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.60 FP/Min: 0.66
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.7 33.4 2.7 30.0 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 20.3 20.1 -0.2 13.6 -6.8
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 11.2 -4.8 8.9 -7.1

Smith has only played 27 minutes in each of the first two games in this series. That has more to do with how the games have played out than anything else. Assuming tonight’s game stays close, Smith could realistically play 35+ minutes. Iman Shumpert was a popular value play in the slate the other night, but for just a bit more, it makes sense to go up to J.R. at shooting guard.

Toronto Raptors

Series Record: 0-2

The Raptors have not had the start that they would have liked in the Eastern Conference Championship, but the series is far from over if they can pick up a win tonight in Game 3. Toronto has some of the best fans in the NBA and you know they are going to get their team pumped up for this game. While a blowout is still a possibility, the Raptors are only listed as 5-point underdogs. These next two games at home may be the only time that we can confidently target the Raptors in DFS.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,600
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.87 FP/Min: 1.07
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 37.0 38.6 1.6 35.5 -1.5
FPPG (FD) 38.5 33.5 -5.1 32.1 -6.5
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 22.2 -0.6 22.9 0.1

While I like the Raptors to keep this game close, I have a hard time paying above $8,000 for Lowry, who has yet to score more than 19 fantasy points in this series. He makes a great GPP play if you want to pivot off of the other three point guards. I do expect a better outing from him at home and don’t forget that he scored at least 35 fantasy points in five straight games before this series started.

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,300
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.79 FP/Min: 0.97
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.9 37.0 1.1 35.2 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 35.3 29.3 -6.0 29.8 -5.5
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 26.4 0.4 28.2 2.1

DeRozan has been an easy fade for most of the playoffs. Not only has he struggled shooting the ball, but Klay Thompson has been a viable alternative every single night. Thompson has more upside and you could argue that he has a higher floor as well. Like Kyle Lowry, DeRozan is a better GPP play than a cash game target.

Bismack Biyombo
bismack-biyombo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $6,200
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 0.80 FP/Min: 0.83
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 22.0 23.6 1.6 33.6 11.6
FPPG (FD) 18.4 18.9 0.5 24.4 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 9.1 8.8 -0.3 9.3 0.2

Biyombo will draw another start at center with Jonas Valanciunas out. He has yet to score more than 18 fantasy points in this series, but I expect the Raptors to try to slow the tempo down a bit at home. That should improve Biyombo’s outlook on both ends of the floor. He is a sneaky GPP play if you want to fade the chalk in Steven Adams.

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder – Sunday, 8:00 PM

Golden State Warriors Oklahoma City Thunder
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 220.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 220.0
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 111.5 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 101.60 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 16 21 13 7 4 Opp. Season 20 9 15 17 19
Last 3 Weeks 6 20 26 5 5 Last 3 Weeks 10 10 25 28 6

Golden State Warriors

Record: 73-9 — Road: 34-7 — Last 10: 8-2

The Warriors came out and did exactly what they needed to – they stomped the Thunders at home in Game 2. They now head to Oklahoma City with the series tied at a game a piece. Both teams have to feel pretty good about the spot they are in. The Warriors only need to win one of the three games in Oklahoma City to steal back homecourt advantage. Despite being on the road, the Warriors are 2.5-point favorites in Game 3. Once again, they have the highest team total on the board. Stephen Curry did bang his elbow the other night, but he is not listed on the injury report and is fully expected to play.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry
stephen-curry-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $10,700
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.32 FP/Min: 1.73
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.2 30.1 -4.1 35.3 1.1
FPPG (FD) 47.9 39.6 -8.3 43.6 -4.3
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 28.0 0.1 25.1 -2.7

Curry has yet to have a huge game in this series, but it is coming. He has played well, he just hasn’t taken over offensively for more than a few spurts here and there. He draws the best matchup of the five starters and the Warriors’ may have to lean on him a bit more now that the series shifts to Oklahoma City. There are enough value plays in the slate that we can easily fit both Curry and Westbrook in the same lineup.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,900
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 1.00 FP/Min: 0.96
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 33.3 35.9 2.6 34.7 1.4
FPPG (FD) 30.9 36.0 5.1 33.6 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 24.3 2.0 23.9 1.6

Thompson had a disappointing Game 2, but he didn’t see a full complement of minutes in the blowout. He has played very well in the postseason, averaging 36 fantasy points in just under 36 minutes per game. He is the top shooting guard left in the playoffs and he is never shy about putting shots up. He remains an elite play heading into Game 3.

Harrison Barnes
harrison-barnes-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,500 Salary: $4,300
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.58 FP/Min: 0.69
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.9 31.6 0.7 33.2 2.3
FPPG (FD) 21.0 18.2 -2.8 20.2 -0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 13.8 12.5 -1.3 10.6 -3.3

Barnes has played well in the first two games of the series, scoring 20 and 23 fantasy points. Of the three value small forwards (Barnes, Iguodala, Carroll), he has the highest floor, which makes him the best cash game target. He should see 32-35 minutes in Game 3 and hopefully he can keep his 20+ fantasy point streak alive.

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,500
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.20 FP/Min: 1.16
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.7 37.3 2.6 36.0 1.3
FPPG (FD) 39.1 44.7 5.6 37.2 -1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 18.4 2.5 17.9 1.9

Green remains an elite tournament play and an interesting contrarian target for cash games. We all know the type of upside that he provides and the Warriors are going to need him to show up in a big way on the road. So far in the playoffs, Green has averaged 44.7 fantasy points in over 37 minutes per contest.

Andre Iguodala
andre-iguodala-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,500 Salary: $4,200
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.72 FP/Min: 0.68
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 26.6 29.6 3.0 29.2 2.6
FPPG (FD) 18.5 21.2 2.7 21.7 3.2
TO-Adj. Usage 10.7 11.6 0.9 11.0 0.3

Iguodala has rewarded fantasy owners in the first two games of the series, scoring 23 and 25 fantasy points. He is playing a big role in this series, as the Warriors need his length to defend Kevin Durant. I slightly prefer Barnes in cash games, but Iguodala has more upside. There isn’t much separation between the two in terms of fantasy appeal.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 55-27 — Home: 32-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Thunder may have gotten blown out by the Warriors in Game 2, but they have to feel good about heading home with the series all tied. They can now move on to the NBA Finals if they can protect their home floor. That will be a tall task though, as they are taking on the defending champions. The Thunder are listed as 2.5-point underdogs in what should be a terrific Game 3. There should be a ton of fantasy points to go around in this one and I highly recommend getting as much exposure to this game as possible.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $11,100
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.37 FP/Min: 1.48
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.4 36.3 1.9 36.7 2.3
FPPG (FD) 48.8 49.7 0.9 49.0 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 28.3 30.2 1.8 28.3 0.0

Westbrook has not shot the ball well in this series, but he is still averaging 50 fantasy points per game. As soon as his shot starts to fall, lookout. He is my favorite play at any position heading into Game 3, as he will be fired up in front of the Thunder home crowd. Westbrook has triple-double upside every time he takes the floor and I expect him to bounce back in an important game for the Thunder.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,300
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.98 FP/Min: 1.24
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.8 39.8 4.0 41.2 5.4
FPPG (FD) 46.4 39.2 -7.3 41.8 -4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 26.3 0.0 27.0 0.7

Durant really played well against the Warriors during the regular season. He has struggled with his shot so far in this series, but eventually those shots are going to fall. It will be interesting to see how the ownership for Durant and LeBron James will be. Both players are in a great spot, but the game environment is expected to be much better for Durant.

Serge Ibaka
serge-ibaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,000 Salary: $5,600
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.70 FP/Min: 0.83
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 32.1 32.1 0.0 33.2 1.1
FPPG (FD) 25.4 22.6 -2.7 24.4 -1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 10.7 -4.1 11.1 -3.7

Ibaka was one of the many Thunder players that struggled in Game 2 against the Warriors. Don’t be discouraged though, as he is going to have a major role in this series. The Thunder are committed to playing big, even when the Warriors go small. Ibaka is cheap enough that he should be considered an elite play in all league formats.

Steven Adams
steven-adams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,200 Salary: $6,300
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 0.77 FP/Min: 0.65
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 25.2 32.7 7.5 37.6 12.4
FPPG (FD) 19.3 25.3 5.9 29.6 10.3
TO-Adj. Usage 10.4 9.8 -0.7 9.7 -0.8

Adams has seen a major boost in minutes in the playoffs. He is averaging 33 minutes per game and just over 25 fantasy points. He is playing a major role in this series and he should continue to play all of the minutes that he can handle. He is my favorite center to target in this two-game slate. I have him ranked ahead of Bismack Biyombo and Tristan Thompson (on FD).

Secondary Plays

Dion Waiters
dion-waiters-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $3,800 Salary: $3,900
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.62 FP/Min: 0.71
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.6 25.4 -2.2 25.7 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 16.7 15.7 -1.0 14.8 -1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 14.0 -1.2 14.0 -1.3

Waiters is seeing big minutes in this series. He has played at least 29 minutes in each of the first two games, scoring at least 15 fantasy points in each contest. The Thunder need his scoring on the floor and he has actually played some decent defense as well. He is the top value at shooting guard once again.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious