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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 14 - Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-14 23:34:31

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Denver at Phoenix – 09:00 PM

Denver Phoenix
denvernba Vegas Total 208 phoenixnba Vegas Total 208
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 107.8
Team Pace 99.62 Team Pace 103.65
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Will Barton Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried J.J. Hickson Proj Starter Eric Bledsoe Brandon Knight P.J. Tucker Markieff Morris Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 19 15 25 9 8 Opp. Season 25 30 4 17 18
Opp. Last 7 24 27 29 4 21 Opp. Season 9 24 1 18 13

Denver

This game checks in with a total of 209 points and should be a high-paced matchup. Joffrey Lauvergne is still out for the Nuggets so they will likely start JJ Hickson at center as the Suns are a big team, but I’d check back closer to tip-off to make sure.

The addition of Tyson Chandler has solidified the Phoenix defense, especially on the interior. Kenneth Faried has been solid this year and JJ Hickson (assuming he starts) has played well so they are solid secondary options due to the pace but it’s just an average matchup The Suns have struggled against SFs and Danilo Gallinari has been shooting the ball very well over his past two games averaging 26 real points per game, which makes him my favorite option on the Nuggets

Emmanuel Mudiay has flashed as a rookie, but he can’t shoot very well, and the Suns guard are very good defensively so this isn’t the best matchup tonight.

Elite Plays

Danilo Gallinari

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 34.3 — Usage Rate: 21.80

Secondary Plays

Kenneth Faried

FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 28.4 — Usage Rate: 20.20

JJ Hickson

FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 20.0 — Usage Rate: 21.50

Phoenix

The one spot to watch with Phoenix is the status of Markieff Morris who is listed as questionable for this game. If he sits Jon Leuer and maybe even TJ Warren should see a solid boost.

The Denver defense has been shredded by opposing guards which sets up perfectly for the Phoenix offense as their offense runs through Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. Both are coming off monster games and should continue their run of great play in this premier matchup. They are both one of the elite options at their respective positions on the day.

The Nuggets have struggled against centers in the past and Chandler can rack up the rebounds. His minutes have been somewhat limited of late so while the matchup is good, the upside hasn’t been there this year. The position to watch is Markieff Morris and if he sits then Jon Leuer should draw the start, and becomes a great value play. He produced a double-double in his last game, and should be in for a solid night against this weak interior. There’s also the option that Suns could play smaller and play TJ Warren more, but that’d be a GPP only play.

Elite Plays

Eric Bledsoe

FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 34.3 — Usage Rate: 27.70

Brandon Knight

FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage Rate: 25.10

Secondary Plays

Jon Leuer (if he starts)

FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 16.3 — Usage Rate:

Brooklyn at Golden State – 10:30 PM

Brooklyn Golden State
brooklynnba Vegas Total 208 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 208
Vegas Sprd 18.0 Vegas Sprd -18.0
Team Proj. 95.3 Team Proj. 113.3
Team Pace 97.57 Team Pace 103.29
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jarrett Jack Joe Johnson Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Festus Ezeli
Opp. Season 10 12 26 15 19 Opp. Season 20 27 19 4 23
Opp. Last 7 17 12 9 2 18 Opp. Season 21 28 12 1 29

Brooklyn

The Nets look to be fully healthy heading into this one, but the fact remains that they are a bad basketball team that are heading to the toughest place to play in the NBA.

The Warriors are a great offensive team, but they’ve also been very good defensively this season. The only positions where they have been sub-par is against PG and Centers so Jarrett Jack and Brook Lopez would be the two Nets to get some consideration. However, given the likely blowout, there’s a good chance that neither sees the floor in the 4th quarter. They have a team total of just 92 points so overall this is a team to have very limited exposure too. The spot I’d be most willing to roll out a Net would be on DK where Brook Lopez is just $6,900

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jarrett Jack

FD: $6,100 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game:31.3 — Usage Rate: 23.80%

Brook Lopez

FD: $8,000 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game:33.4 — Usage Rate: 25.70%

Golden State

The Warriors should roll in this one and are back to full health as they got Andrew Bogut back from injury last game. Festus Ezeli remained the starter at center last game, but whether that holds going forward is TBD.

The Warriors should be able to do whatever they want offensively in this one and have the highest team total on the slate. The problem is that this game has an 18 point spread so this looks like another blowout. The Warriors have blown a ton of teams out this year, and Curry is still averaging over 50 FD PPG, so he’s a guy that shouldn’t be overlooked simply due to the blowout. I slightly prefer John Wall due to the minute security, but Curry is an elite option and should put up an elite outing even if this game gets out of hand. Given Curry’s elite usage, he’s the safest option on the Warriors, and I’m reserving the rest of the Warriors to GPP only use as they are more affected by a potential blowout.

Klay Thompson oddly struggled this season, but at some point a breakout should be coming. His price has dropped to a point on FD where he is interesting for tournaments, and the Nets have not been good against SG so he could get plenty of good looks in this one. However, given the blowout and the fact that he is very scoring dependent, he’s a guy that is better suited for a tournament play. Draymond Green is coming off of a huge outing, but in games that he’s played under 30 minutes this season, he’s been average, and the Nets have actually defended PF fairly well. Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala continue to play solid basketball, but I’m leaning towards the minute security of Trevor Ariza or Otto Porter at similar price points.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD: $11,000 — DK:$10,700
Min/Game: 34.2 — Usage Rate: 32.60%

Secondary Plays

Klay Thompson

FD: $6,500 — DK:$6,700
Min/Game: 30.4 — Usage Rate: 22.60%

Draymond Green

FD: $8,000 — DK:$7,000
Min/Game: 33.1 — Usage Rate: 16.30%

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)