NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 26th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
New York Knicks | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 209.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 101.3 | Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.6 | Pace +/- | -0.4 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Derrick Rose | Courtney Lee | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Joakim Noah | Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Roy Hibbert | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 2016-17 | 8 | 29 | 22 | 11 | 18 |
New York Knicks
- Injury Watch:
Lance Thomas
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.3 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (7 of 10)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (18 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.6 (3 of 10)
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.2 (18 of 30)
Welcome to a short Saturday edition of the Grind Down. Hopefully, everyone is having a great weekend so far and we can add some big winnings to the list of things we’re thankful for. The Knicks take on the Hornets again in a home-and-home back-to-back. The Knicks won on Carmelo Anthony jumper in overtime while Kristaps Porzingis dealt with foul trouble for most of the game. KP6 picked up three fouls in the second quarter and then a fourth in the third quarter, limiting his playing time. Luckily, the game went into overtime and he was able to salvage his day. Carmelo Anthony’s 35 real points were a season high, and we should expect some more shots to flow through the rest of the team. Still, Anthony and Porzingis are two players who have much better splits at home, and traveling to Charlotte should be a cause for concern.
Anthony’s usage rate has dipped 1.1 percent over the last two weeks and Porzingis’ has gone up 2.2 percent and we should likely focus our energy on Porzingis for tournaments while the masses chase Anthony’s big game. Anthony is still a solid cash game play that has averaged 40.1 DraftKings fantasy points over his last five games. Anthony did struggle in his last home-and-away back-to-back, so there is a slight cause for concern. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a legit defender but only played 29 minutes last night. The Hornets are still a stout defending team (ranked fourth in defensive efficiency) and will likely get back to their tough ways at home. Joakim Noah only played 17 minutes as he works his way back from an illness, while Derrick Rose and Courtney Lee played 38 and 37 minute respectively. All three players are viable tournament options for tonight, but since we must focus our energy on a shorter slate, look better off as avoided. Willy Hernangomez looks to be getting consistent minutes off the bench and is a viable punt option, if needed. Brandon Jennings only played 15 minutes last night, so hopefully he was being saved for tonight and see more action tonight.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Rose | $5,800 | $5,600 | $8,900 | 0.85 | 31.7 | 0.5 | 26.8 | 4.8 | 27.6% | 1.0% | 19 |
Courtney Lee | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 0.55 | 30.1 | -0.8 | 16.6 | 1.5 | 15.1% | 1.7% | 10 |
Carmelo Anthony | $7,600 | $7,300 | $12,400 | 1.01 | 33.3 | 2.9 | 33.6 | -0.4 | 28.3% | -1.3% | 10 |
Kristaps Porzingis | $7,200 | $7,700 | $11,100 | 1.02 | 32.9 | 2.9 | 33.7 | 2.4 | 23.6% | -0.2% | 14 |
Joakim Noah | $4,600 | $4,400 | $8,000 | 0.94 | 23.4 | -4.3 | 22.0 | -9.6 | 14.2% | -1.6% | 22 |
Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony (cash), Kristaps Porzingis
Secondary Plays – Willy Hernangomez (GPP), Brandon Jennings (GPP)
Charlotte Hornets
- Injury Watch:
Update: Marvin Williams (out)
Nicolas Batum (questionable)
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.8 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.1 (1 of 10)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (12 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.4 (5 of 10)
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.7 (18 of 30)
Marvin Williams injured his knee last night and is doubtful to play tonight. We can expect Frank Kaminsky to start in his place but nothing official has been posted at this time. Kaminsky had a slow start to the season but has very solid over the last six games, averaging 30 DK fantasy points / 27.73 FD fantasy points. He also played a season-high 40 minutes, so we can expect to see Frank the Tank for 30+ minutes tonight. Kaminsky is a solid cash game play that might not have the same upside in the starting unit as he does off the bench. Kemba Walker averages five more fantasy points at home and is a slightly overpriced option for this game. While he still has a possibility of hitting a 50 burger, you’re basically paying for it at these salary levels. It’s just better to spend your salary for Westbrook or Curry.
Nicolas Batum almost had a triple-double last night but has also seen his salary pop a bit. He’s still a viable cash game play but his upside is priced in and it would be difficult for him to greatly exceed value. The only other consistent guy for the Hornets has been Marco Belinelli, who is heavily dependent on scoring but is cheap enough to the point where even if he has an off night it won’t ruin your lineup entirely. He’s a better play on DraftKings where he is under $4k, but is also viable for FanDuel since he plays SF over there.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $8,500 | $7,900 | $12,000 | 1.21 | 33.0 | 0.3 | 39.9 | -2.0 | 31.3% | -1.1% | 8 |
Nicolas Batum | $6,700 | $6,800 | $10,700 | 0.88 | 34.4 | 1.7 | 30.3 | -5.7 | 20.9% | -2.8% | 29 |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,500 | $4,900 | $8,200 | 0.76 | 31.6 | 0.4 | 24.0 | 2.5 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 22 |
Marvin Williams | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 0.73 | 28.3 | -0.4 | 20.6 | -7.8 | 17.8% | -1.2% | 11 |
Roy Hibbert | $3,500 | $3,000 | $7,600 | 0.79 | 15.1 | -0.2 | 11.9 | -3.6 | 16.4% | -1.6% | 18 |
Frank Kaminsky | $4,600 | $4,800 | $7,600 | 0.91 | 24.3 | 4.7 | 22.0 | 5.9 | 22.4% | -0.7% | 11 |
Elite Plays – Frank Kaminsky,
Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum, Marco Belinelli, Kemba Walker (GPP)
San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 202.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 202.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | -6.0 | Vegas Spread | 6.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 104.3 | Team Total | 98.3 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -0.1 | Pace +/- | -3.9 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Proj. Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 6 | 22 | 23 | 18 | 9 | 2016-17 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
San Antonio Spurs
- Injury Watch:
Update: Dewayne Dedmon (doubtful)
Manu Ginobili (out)
- San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 102.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.3 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (4 of 10)
Pace of Play: 95.2 (27 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.1 (4 of 10)
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.1 (15 of 30)
The Spurs travel to Washington to play on the second night of a back-to-back. While we have been concerned in the past that Popovich might rest some guys on the back-to-back, we hopefully get the whole team since they got to rest on Thanksgiving. Still, I would proceed with caution with the Spurs. Kawhi Leonard is the one player we don’t have to worry about and should consider him a lock for all formats. He gets the best matchup on the team and is the unquestioned leader. He’s cheaper on DraftKings but remains an elite option under $9k on both sites. Leonard is averaging 46.66 DraftKings fantasy points over his last six games while averaging over 35 MPG. Sit back and enjoy the Claw tonight. We can expect that if the Spurs decide to sit some players, we’ll hear about it before lineups lock.
Pau Gasol was pretty much benched yesterday for David Lee and Davis Bertans. Bertans has played 20 minutes in two out of the last three contests, and had his best game of the season. David Lee also had his best game of the season at the expense of Gasol. Lee and Bertans are still too risky to use in cash games but could be viable punt options on a short slate. I would only look to use them if all other choices have been exhausted. Gasol is in a nice bounce back spot against the Wizards and will likely need to play extended minutes with the Wizards throwing out their seven-footer in Marcin Gortat. Gasol was playing really well before last night, and if we can get confirmation that he is starting, he is a solid cheap center option. LaMarcus Aldridge also struggled last night, giving him some possible tournament appeal. Since both players did recently struggle in a good spot, we’ll only be able to use them in GPPs, with Gasol having the better price but Aldridge having the higher upside.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tony Parker | $4,500 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 0.71 | 26.0 | 0.2 | 18.5 | -1.9 | 22.0% | 2.4% | 6 |
Danny Green | $4,200 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 0.73 | 26.8 | 3.8 | 19.5 | 3.6 | 13.1% | 1.0% | 22 |
Kawhi Leonard | $8,600 | $8,300 | $14,100 | 1.21 | 34.1 | 1.0 | 41.3 | 3.0 | 29.9% | -0.8% | 23 |
LaMarcus Aldridge | $7,000 | $6,300 | $10,900 | 0.94 | 32.8 | 1.6 | 30.7 | 0.4 | 24.2% | -1.5% | 18 |
Pau Gasol | $6,200 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 1.02 | 25.6 | -0.7 | 26.1 | -3.1 | 21.7% | -1.3% | 9 |
Patty Mills | $4,000 | $4,200 | $7,500 | 0.77 | 23.6 | 1.0 | 18.3 | 2.2 | 21.1% | 2.6% | 6 |
Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard
Secondary Plays – Pau Gasol (GPP), LaMarcus Aldridge, Patty Mills (GPP, elite if Parker sits)
Washington Wizards
- Injury Watch:
Ian Mahinmi (out)
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (19 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.3 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -4.6 (10 of 10)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -3.9 (9 of 10)
- San Antonio Spurs Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.7 (7 of 30)
The Wizards said they were going to monitor John Wall’s minutes on the first night of a back-to-back but ended up playing him 38 minutes when they realized they would likely lose to the Magic if Wall was on the bench. Wall is a possible candidate to sit out, but the team has not mentioned anything yet. Still, proceed with caution with the Spurs in town and Wall having sat out the second leg of a back-to-back before this season. Since the game is at home, I’m more apt to believe he’ll play but he’s still some what overpriced for this game. All the Wizards starters seem overpriced for this game even though they all played 30 minutes last night. Bradley Beal has the “best” DvP matchup, but that is not saying much. He has proven time and again that if he does not score over 20 real points, he’s likely going to be a bust. He’s averaging 17 PPG against the Spurs in six career contests, making him a risky option for tonight. Marcin Gortat is the only player that has cash game viability for this contest. He’s pretty much a lock for 30 minutes since the Wizards bench has not been playing well and has a double-double in four out of his last six starts. Maybe some value opens up in this game, but even if it does, it won’t have a ton of upside.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Wall | $9,300 | $8,100 | $13,100 | 1.27 | 33.5 | 2.0 | 42.6 | 6.0 | 37.1% | -1.8% | 5 |
Bradley Beal | $6,000 | $6,500 | $10,600 | 0.87 | 32.9 | 3.4 | 28.7 | 10.4 | 26.1% | 3.4% | 24 |
Otto Porter | $5,900 | $5,800 | $9,600 | 0.89 | 34.4 | -1.3 | 30.5 | -2.0 | 17.0% | -1.5% | 1 |
Markieff Morris | $4,800 | $5,000 | $9,100 | 0.79 | 30.7 | -7.2 | 24.2 | -10.9 | 20.9% | -3.2% | 5 |
Marcin Gortat | $6,200 | $5,500 | $9,700 | 0.87 | 35.0 | 0.3 | 30.4 | 2.6 | 13.9% | 0.3% | 8 |
Elite Plays – Marcin Gortat
Secondary Plays – N/A
Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 190.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 190.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 94.0 | Team Total | 96.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -2.2 | Pace +/- | -4.1 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Mike Conley | Troy Daniels | Tony Allen | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Josh Richardson | Dion Waiters | Derrick Williams | Hassan Whiteside | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 2016-17 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Memphis Grizzlies
- Injury Watch:
Chandler Parsons (out)
James Ennis (out)
Update: Zach Randolph (out)
- Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 97.4 (25 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 94.0 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -3.4 (9 of 10)
Pace of Play: 95.0 (28 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -2.2 (7 of 10)
- Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.5 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.8 (6 of 30)
The Grizzlies have got to be one of the most frustrating teams in the league for DFS. What was the point of bringing Mike Conley off the bench, playing him 22 minutes and losing at home? Is he hurt? If so, don’t even use him. Are you saving him because, you’re playing again tonight? I can’t figure out the Grizzlies for the life of me, and I don’t understand benching Marc Gasol even though he was not in foul trouble. This team literally boggles my mind, and I just wish to avoid them every time they play. Since they do actually have good players, it’s just super frustrating. Hopefully since Gasol and Conley were “rested” in last night’s game they will be able to play more minutes tonight. If Andrew Harrison is going to play 30+ minutes, I’m not sure I want exposure to much of the Grizzlies anyways. Jamychal Green is the only viable option since Zach Randolph is expected to be out again tonight. Still, Green lacks consistent upside and is a risky option.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Conley | $7,600 | $6,700 | $11,300 | 1.03 | 33.5 | 4.9 | 34.6 | 5.7 | 29.0% | -2.4% | 3 |
Troy Daniels | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 0.37 | 11.0 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 17.8% | -4.6% | 5 |
Tony Allen | $3,900 | $4,100 | $6,800 | 0.72 | 22.5 | 2.2 | 16.1 | 0.0 | 17.7% | 0.5% | 9 |
JaMychal Green | $4,500 | $5,000 | $7,200 | 0.66 | 28.6 | 2.4 | 18.9 | 7.6 | 14.5% | 0.0% | 9 |
Marc Gasol | $7,100 | $6,900 | $10,700 | 0.99 | 33.5 | 4.9 | 33.3 | 2.4 | 28.1% | -2.5% | 20 |
Vince Carter | $4,200 | $4,100 | $7,200 | 0.68 | 28.3 | 4.1 | 19.2 | -3.9 | 16.0% | -0.7% | 9 |
Elite Plays – N/A
Secondary Plays – N/A
Miami Heat
- Injury Watch:
Update: Goran Dragic (doubtful)
Justise Winslow (out)
Willie Reed (out)
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 96.0 (27 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.0 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (5 of 10)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (23 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -4.1 (10 of 10)
- Memphis Grizzlies Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 185.8 (2 of 30)
The Miami Heat are dealing with a bunch of injuries right now and will likely be without Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow tonight. Dragic was ruled out late last night but is considered day-to-day. We have not received an update about his status and Coach Spo is usually terrible about telling the media what’s going on. Rodney McGruder, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, and Dion Waiters all took advantage of Dragic’s absence and were able to exceed value. Since they play the Grizzlies again in a home-and-home back-to-back, we’ll have to look for possible fade candidates. If Mike Conley starts, we’ll likely have to fade McGruder. Tyler Johnson will likely have the biggest chase on DraftKings since he is the cheapest of the remaining guards. Richardson is cheaper on FanDuel than Johnson and Waiters but is also more scoring dependent. This game will hinge on the availability of Dragic, but Tyler Johnson and Dion Waiters look like the safest plays.
Hassan Whiteside fouled out last night in Memphis and should be able to play a full compliment of minutes tonight in Miami. From a game theory perspective, most users won’t play Whiteside after his poor showing, giving us a low-owned player with tournament winning upside. I’d still rather have Kawhi Leonard if I was forced to use $8k+ and try to figure out another center. Since the pool is pretty weak today, Whiteside should still be considered.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goran Dragic | $6,400 | $6,200 | $10,900 | 0.88 | 31.8 | -0.5 | 27.8 | -3.1 | 27.2% | -0.5% | 7 |
Josh Richardson | $4,000 | $4,900 | $7,600 | 0.63 | 28.0 | -0.3 | 17.7 | -1.3 | 20.1% | -3.8% | 6 |
Dion Waiters | $5,100 | $5,300 | $7,800 | 0.75 | 31.2 | -3.4 | 23.5 | 3.3 | 26.1% | 2.9% | 2 |
Derrick Williams | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,800 | 0.64 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 19.4% | 1.9% | 6 |
Hassan Whiteside | $8,900 | $8,600 | $13,700 | 1.28 | 32.7 | -0.1 | 41.9 | -4.4 | 23.5% | -1.6% | 1 |
Tyler Johnson | $4,700 | $4,800 | $7,900 | 0.81 | 29.5 | -0.6 | 24.0 | -2.5 | 20.1% | 0.1% | 7 |
Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside (GPP), Tyler Johnson, Dion Waiters
Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson
Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 203.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 99.0 | Team Total | 104.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 3.2 | Pace +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Ish Smith | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Victor Oladipo | Andre Roberson | Domantas Sabonis | Steven Adams | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 29 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 2016-17 | 24 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 23 |
Detroit Pistons
- Injury Watch:
Reggie Jackson (out)
Reggie Bullock (out)
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 96.8 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.0 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (2 of 10)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (24 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 3.2 (2 of 10)
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.4 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.4 (16 of 30)
The Pistons put up a solid effort last night, defeating the Clippers at home. Tonight, they get to travel to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder. Ish Smith stands out right away as a player we should be using for tournaments and cash games. Smith has played 30+ minutes in three out of his last four games and has exceeded value in each of those contests. In an uptempo game tonight, Smith should be used and expected to be on the floor for 30+ minutes. Tobias Harris looks like he is back on track after a couple of underwhelming performances over the last week. He plays more time at PF than Marcus Morris and should be able to exploit his matchup against Domantas Sabonis. Marcus Morris is also a viable punt option tonight who was dealing with foul trouble last night. Since Jon Leuer and Morris are priced in the same range, I’ll likely give the preference to Morris since he is the starter and should see the 30 minutes tonight that Leuer saw last night. Leuer is still a viable option that has proven that even in limited minutes he can make value. This does not seem like a game where Andre Drummond will make a huge impact, and since he is going up against an elite defensive player in Steven Adams, it’s best to avoid him.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ish Smith | $5,200 | $4,900 | $8,100 | 0.82 | 29.2 | -1.8 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 24.0% | -3.2% | 29 |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,100 | $5,100 | $7,900 | 0.70 | 33.0 | -1.5 | 23.2 | 3.9 | 20.1% | 2.6% | 4 |
Marcus Morris | $4,900 | $4,700 | $8,100 | 0.74 | 31.9 | -0.6 | 23.5 | -0.1 | 20.0% | 0.4% | 14 |
Tobias Harris | $5,200 | $5,700 | $9,300 | 0.77 | 32.6 | -0.7 | 25.2 | -4.4 | 22.1% | -1.1% | 16 |
Andre Drummond | $8,400 | $7,500 | $12,400 | 1.23 | 30.0 | 0.4 | 36.8 | 7.2 | 23.3% | 2.3% | 1 |
Jon Leuer | $4,400 | $4,500 | $7,100 | 0.81 | 26.5 | -0.1 | 21.5 | -4.5 | 17.2% | -1.5% | 16 |
Elite Plays – Ish Smith, Tobias Harris
Secondary Plays – Marucs Morris, Jon Leuer
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Injury Watch:
Cameron Payne (out)
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 105.5 (11 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.0 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (8 of 10)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (4 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -2.4 (8 of 10)
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.9 (10 of 30)
Russell Westbrook is a monster! Sure, you already knew this, but let me tell you again: Russell Westbrook is a monster! He dropped a season-high 18 assists against the Nuggets in an overtime victory in Denver and gets to face the Pistons tonight at home. There’s no point jumping off the bandwagon tonight, especially for cash games. As always, fade Westbrook at your own risk and the leverage play remains Victor Oladipo. There’s plenty of viable mid-range to cheap options that making a team headed by Westbrook/Kawhi or Westbrook/Durant seems like the best starting point for tonight.
Victor Oladipo has certainly picked up his play, averaging 40.41 DK fantasy points over his last six contests. Oladipo’s true usage is less than Enes Kanter’s, making him a risky chase today against the stout defense of KCP. It’s not a total avoid spot, but does not seem like the best option for cash with so many cheaper shooting guards with solid floors available today. He’s proven that he has solid tournament upside left at this salary level and should still be considered if you’re making multiple lineups. My focus would just be on Westbrook and Adams. Steven Adams had 11 rebounds in their previous meeting earlier this season and should be able to approach a double-double if he does not get into foul trouble. Adams has only exceeded value once in his last four starts and is too risky for cash games due to his slump. He’s still getting the minutes, so he’s a solid GPP play that should have low ownership tonight. If you’re looking for a salary saver, Jerami Grant looks to fit the bill tonight. Grant has played 29+ minutes in consecutive games but does not have a ton of upside. He just seems like one of the more solid, safe punt options if one if needed for this slate.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Russell Westbrook | $11,900 | $11,900 | $15,900 | 1.64 | 34.9 | 2.1 | 57.3 | 3.8 | 45.2% | 2.9% | 24 |
Victor Oladipo | $6,000 | $6,400 | $10,400 | 0.76 | 34.5 | 3.2 | 26.2 | 3.4 | 21.2% | -0.7% | 9 |
Andre Roberson | $4,100 | $4,200 | $7,000 | 0.64 | 29.6 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 1.1 | 11.1% | -2.7% | 7 |
Domantas Sabonis | $3,500 | $3,300 | $7,800 | 0.64 | 21.6 | -2.7 | 13.8 | -0.8 | 15.1% | 0.3% | 7 |
Steven Adams | $4,800 | $5,000 | $8,700 | 0.75 | 31.7 | -0.6 | 23.9 | -1.0 | 14.4% | 1.4% | 23 |
Enes Kanter | $4,800 | $4,400 | $9,300 | 1.13 | 18.8 | 3.1 | 21.3 | 1.4 | 24.1% | -1.9% | 7 |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook
Secondary Plays – Steven Adams (GPP), Victor Oladipo (GPP), Jerami Grant
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 223.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 223.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 15.0 | Vegas Spread | -15.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 104.0 | Team Total | 119.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 3.9 | Pace +/- | -1.9 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Ricky Rubio | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | Gorgui Dieng | Karl-Anthony Towns | Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 25 | 24 | 11 | 25 | 11 | 2016-17 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 21 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Injury Watch:
N/A
- Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (16 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.0 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.1 (6 of 10)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (22 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 3.9 (1 of 10)
- Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.5 (13 of 30)
The Timberwolves travel to Oakland to face the Warriors tonight and are large underdogs in Vegas’s eyes. Andrew Wiggins continues to be scoring-reliant and saved his night since he played 41 minutes. He should be a lock for 32-38 minutes again tonight but is in an ideal spot to fade. Zach LaVine has also been extremely volatile and carries too much risk for our cash games tonight. Ricky Rubio has also come back down to earth after his recent strong performances and will need to have a special game to keep the T-Wolves in this game. Since Golden State played heavy minutes last night, I’m apt to believe that the Timberwolves have a chance at keeping this game competitive. The only way they’ll do it is if their big men play great.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng are in nice spots and if Draymond Green misses this game or is limited, he will be really able to exceed value against a somewhat undersized Warriors team. KAT has been solid all season and obviously has a much higher true usage rate than Dieng. Towns’s ownership should also be low to the users that are scared off by the large blowout possibility. Since Dieng is priced with some viable tournament upside, he should be considered. Dieng has picked up his play as of late and has 10 or more rebounds in four of last six games. I would likely use these player on the late slate since their coach has been known to run them into the ground, even in blowout situations.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ricky Rubio | $6,000 | $5,900 | $9,600 | 0.71 | 30.5 | 1.1 | 21.7 | -2.1 | 17.7% | -2.7% | 25 |
Zach LaVine | $5,800 | $6,000 | $9,700 | 0.76 | 35.5 | 1.8 | 27.0 | 0.8 | 22.5% | 2.1% | 24 |
Andrew Wiggins | $6,200 | $7,000 | $11,200 | 0.87 | 35.9 | -1.8 | 31.2 | -17.4 | 30.0% | -1.8% | 11 |
Gorgui Dieng | $5,900 | $6,100 | $10,100 | 0.85 | 31.1 | 2.0 | 26.5 | 3.4 | 16.8% | 3.3% | 25 |
Karl-Anthony Towns | $8,800 | $8,400 | $14,200 | 1.09 | 34.7 | -3.7 | 38.0 | -2.4 | 25.8% | -2.4% | 11 |
Elite Plays – Gorgui Dieng
Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns
Golden State Warriors
- Injury Watch:
Draymond Green (questionable)
Ian Clark (questionable)
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 117.1 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 119.0 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.9 (3 of 10)
Pace of Play: 103.0 (3 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.9 (6 of 10)
- Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.3 (4 of 30)
Ian Clark and Draymond Green were involved in a collision last night, and both players are listed as questionable for tonight. Green said he is playing tonight, but there is a chance that the Warriors play it safe and keep him from hurting himself further. If Green is out of the lineup, Durant becomes somewhat of a mandatory play. Even with Draymond in the lineup, Durant was looking like a solid play in all formats. Durant is second on the team in true usage to Curry and gets a tough matchup tonight in Andrew Wiggins. His upside hinges on the availability of Green. Stephen Curry continues to be a solid cash game point guard, but it seems impossible to fit in three studs on a slate with Westbrook.
Remember, players have to play well for there to be a blowout, and Curry profiles as the guy should step up if Durant is dealing with Wiggins and Green is out. Klay Thompson is the cheapest Warrior with upside and would also see a significant boost if Green were to be out of the lineup. Patrick McCaw is likely the bench player that you want to use if you feel that he’ll be able to play max minutes in the fourth quarter, since Ian Clark is out. This game really hinges on the availability of Green, and even he does play, the Warriors should still be used because his true usage rate is only 18.7 percent. We should also expect that if Green is limited or the Warriors decide they need size against Karl-Anthony Towns that Zaza Pachulia will see over 20 minutes. His season-high is 21, and he provides a relatively safe floor at his near min-salary. If Green is out, Andre Iguodala should also see a bump in value.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stephen Curry | $9,300 | $9,000 | $14,300 | 1.24 | 32.9 | -1.9 | 40.7 | 0.3 | 31.1% | -0.2% | 22 |
Klay Thompson | $6,000 | $6,200 | $10,700 | 0.83 | 33.0 | -3.7 | 27.4 | 3.0 | 24.3% | 3.3% | 2 |
Kevin Durant | $9,900 | $9,600 | $15,100 | 1.39 | 34.2 | -3.0 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 27.5% | -2.0% | 4 |
Draymond Green | $8,000 | $7,800 | $12,700 | 1.15 | 33.0 | -2.0 | 37.9 | -3.5 | 18.7% | -2.1% | 8 |
Zaza Pachulia | $3,800 | $3,200 | $8,000 | 0.95 | 17.1 | -0.9 | 16.3 | 2.4 | 13.7% | 3.9% | 21 |
Andre Iguodala | $3,800 | $3,500 | $7,500 | 0.69 | 23.9 | -2.6 | 16.6 | 0.3 | 12.9% | 4.2% | 4 |