NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 29th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-04-29 15:35:30

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 1:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		199.0					Vegas Total		199.0
			Vegas Spread		5.5					Vegas Spread		-5.5
			Implied Team Total		96.8					Implied Team Total		102.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.4
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner		Projected Starters	Jose Calderon	J.R. Smith	Kyle Korver	LeBron James	Kevin Love
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	22	25	27	16	13		DvP	4	4	16	12	24
DRPM Rat.	9	27	5	21	15		DRPM Rat.	19	1	21	5	18

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

None

The Pacers dominated Game 6 to tie the series at three games apiece, and now it’s a win-or-go-home scenario. Victor Oladipo finally erupted for a 28 point, 13 rebound, 10 assist and 4 steal triple-double in a dominant performance. Oladipo led all Pacers with 34 minutes and since the Pacers were up by 25 to start the 4th quarter, the team didn’t need him to log heavy minutes. Oladipo entered Game 6 in a slump but he finally broke out of it in a big way.

The Pacers’ game plan in Game 6 was clear: run and win the rebounding battle. The Pacers had 35 fast break points compared to Cleveland’s 12, and they out-rebounded the Cavs 44 to 33. The Pacers also capitalized on the Cavs’ carelessness, turning their 15 turnovers into 29 points.

The Pacers showed their depth by having seven players in double-figures in Game 6, led by Oladipo’s 28 points. I’m expecting the Cavs to do their best to trap and force someone other than Oladipo to beat them in Game 7. And if the Pacers expect to win, one or more of Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner, Bojan Bogdanovic or Darren Collison will need to step up.

Domantas Sabonis has been huge off the bench and is my favorite player on the Pacers’ second unit (no offense, Lance). Sabonis is averaging roughly 20 points and 6 rebounds over his last three games, and is thriving in this series. A big part of his role is somewhat dependent on Myles Turner staying out of foul trouble too, so I probably wouldn’t pair Sabonis and Turner on the same lineup as they aren’t complementary pieces.

Speaking of Lance Stephenson, he continues to shine as he gets under the skin of LeBron James and provides an extra boost of defense and energy. He did see extra run in Game 6 by playing the entire 4th quarter since it was a blowout, but I still expect him to be a solid contributor in this elimination game.

Outside of Victor Oladipo, it’s difficult to determine where the production on the Pacers will come from. As such, I’m more focused on the salaries of their players to help determine my roster build. I like the price of Thaddeus Young on DraftKings more than on FanDuel. I also think the price of Darren Collison is fair considering he should see plenty of time in this Game 7. The price of Myles Turner is also very tempting but he seems like a better play on multi-center sites like DraftKings than on a one-center site like FanDuel where the opportunity cost of fading someone like Clint Capela or Rudy Gobert is a lot higher.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.8 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -8.8 (4 of 4)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young (DK)

Secondary Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Domantas Sabonis, Lance Stephenson, Myles Turner, Thaddeus Young (FD)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Update 11:34pm EST – George Hill is available to play today.

Notable Injuries

George Hill (Questionable)

George Hill has missed the last three games but is a game-time decision for Sunday’s Game 7. With him being out, Jose Calderon has been starting in his place but hasn’t exceeded 13 DraftKings points in those games. Jordan Clarkson has seen a slight bump in usage with Hill out but he also hasn’t exceeded 16.5 DraftKings points in any of his last three games.

Honestly, it’s difficult to trust anyone on this Cavs team outside of LeBron James. It wouldn’t shock me to see James play close to the entire game here, assuming it stays close. James has to be a lock in cash games if you’re still playing cash. Kyle Kover is probably the closest thing to a secondary play on my radar given his ability to catch fire at any point, but he’s also rotated having good games with duds. He’s not someone I would go all-in on but if you’re building multiple teams, I think you need some exposure.

Oh Kevin Love, how the mighty have fallen. Love’s price continues to plummet, but it’s because he hasn’t done much lately to warrant his price tag. Love hasn’t reached 27 FanDuel points in his last five games and he did fall on his arm in Game 6, but stayed in and played through the pain. It’s hard to trust Love at this point, especially when he’s hurting the Cavs defensively, but maybe the old Kevin Love will show up here when the whole world has given up on him. He’s not someone I want to prioritize on this slate. I’m going to list him as a secondary play because the recency bias alone makes him interesting for tournaments, but his recent form is very concerning.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -8.7 (3 of 4)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James

Secondary Plays – Kyle Korver, Kevin Love (GPP)

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets – 3:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		207.0					Vegas Total		207.0
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		98.0					Implied Team Total		109.0
			Pace Projection +/-		0.1					Pace Projection +/-		-1.8
Projected Starters	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Jae Crowder	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert		Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	11	10	6	17		DvP	13	1	4	2	7
DRPM Rat.	3	16	10	8	4		DRPM Rat.	6	6	25	10	1

Utah Jazz

Notable Injuries

Ricky Rubio (Out)

The Utah Jazz will be without starting point guard Ricky Rubio for the near future. Royce O’Neale started the second half of Friday’s game and would seem like the most logical replacement in the starting lineup. For what it’s worth, Jazz beat writer Tony Jones tweeted here he expects O’Neale to draw the start. O’Neale is cheap enough across the industry where he should draw lots of ownership as a punt play to fit in the other studs. Jae Crowder should also see an increase in playing time off the bench and is a fine punt play.

The trickle down effect from this Rubio injury is that Donovan Mitchell should see more usage, while Dante Exum should see minutes as the backup point guard and Alec Burks should get more playing time. Per CourtIQ here, when Rubio has been off the court this season, Mitchell has led the team with a 33.9% usage rate and has averaged 1.13 fantasy points per minute. I personally would rather play Burks than Exum as I’m not a huge fan of Exum, but I suppose both warrant some consideration as punts in large field tournaments.

If there’s one concern with Mitchell, it’s that the Rockets could try putting Chris Paul on him to try and slow him down. It’s also worth noting that in their four games against each other this season, the Rockets held Mitchell to 16.3 points per game. I’m still viewing Mitchell as an elite play, but I do think it’s worth monitoring how the Rockets defend him in this series.

If you decide to go underweight on Mitchell because of these factors, it makes some sense to target one of Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors or Rudy Gobert. The price on Favors across the industry is very tempting. I’ll admit I’m not a huge Derrick Favors guy and I tend to target Joe Ingles more when Rubio is out, but I’m viewing both as fantastic plays here.

I’m torn on Rudy Gobert. My one concern is that in his three games this season against the Rockets, the Rockets were able to keep him in check for all the matches. Here are his game logs this season against them:

11/5/2017 – 20.8 DraftKings points (13 points, 5 rebounds)
12/7/2017 – 22.3 DraftKings points (6 points, 9 rebounds)
2/26/2018 – 31.5 DraftKings points (17 points, 6 rebounds)

Granted this is a small sample so it’s tough to draw conclusions, but it’s a bit alarming he’s struggled this season against them. Most of the ownership at center will likely be split among Gobert and Clint Capela, who is actually $700 more on FanDuel. Because we lack quality options at center on this slate I’m going to list him as an Elite option, but I personally prefer Capela over Gobert for Game 1.

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.0 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -6.1 (2 of 4)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Royce O’Neale

Secondary Plays – Alec Burks (GPP) Jae Crowder, Dante Exum (YOLO GPP play)

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Luc Mbah a Moute (Questionable)

Luc Mbah a Moute has been upgraded to questionable and looks to be a game-time decision. If he does return, he’ll likely cut into the playing time of guys like Ryan Anderson and Gerald Green. He’s incredibly cheap across the industry and if we get word he’s a go and may see his normal 20+ minutes, I don’t hate the idea of using him in a large field GPP. Earlier in the playoffs we saw Ryan Anderson return from his injury and play 18 minutes right off the bat despite the team saying they would ease him in.

It’s going to be hard to jam both LeBron James and James Harden into a lineup. Given the matchup against an elite Jazz defense and the fact James could play close to 40+ minutes in an elimination game, I give LeBron the slight edge. But that’s not to say Harden is a bad play here. If you recall, Harden dropped 83.5 DraftKings points on this Jazz team in just 35 minutes back in November, so he can light them up. Chris Paul wasn’t active for that game so that allowed Harden to soak up all the usage, but it’s scary to think that’s within his range of outcomes if given the opportunity.

I honestly don’t have too much interest in P.J. Tucker. Trevor Ariza is somewhat interesting given his cheap price tag but I’m still viewing him as a secondary option on this slate. If you aren’t paying up for James Harden, I like the idea of pivoting down to Chris Paul and getting exposure to this Rockets team that way.

I’m a bit scared of Eric Gordon in this matchup. He’s so scoring dependent and if the Jazz can utilize their elite defense to shut him down or contest his shots, he’s going to have trouble in this series. Maybe it’s just recency bias after watching the Jazz force Paul George and Russell Westbrook into awful shooting games, but I’ll likely take a wait-and-see approach with Gordon.

I had mentioned above I prefer Clint Capela over Rudy Gobert. While I consider Gobert an elite talent, we’ve also see him surrender big games to opposing centers from time to time this season. The Andre Drummond 80 fantasy point explosion comes to mind. This is just a guess due to their salaries and the reputation the Jazz have on defense, but I expect Capela to have lower ownership than Gobert, and that may be an aspect I chase in tournaments.

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -3.4 (1 of 4)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 7.0 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Clint Capela, James Harden, Chris Paul

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza