NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 6th - Page Two
Philadelphia at Miami – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Stauskas-Covington-Noel-Okafor
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Winslow—Stoudemire
| Philadelphia | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.22 | Team Pace | 95.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Nik Stauskas | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Justise Winslow | Amar’e Stoudemire | ||
| Opp. Season | 2 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 6 | Opp. Season | 25 | 18 | 28 | 28 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 5 | Opp. Season | 26 | 20 | 9 | 30 | 28 | |
Philadelphia
Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.3 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.6 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.1 (5 of 30)
The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this year and are ranked sixth or better in all the above defensive categories. With that said, the 76ers will be without Keith Marshall, Nik Stauskas, Nerlens Noel, and Jahlil Okafor for this game, which opens a ton of minute opportunities up. Guys like Richard Holmes and Hollis Thompson are deep punt plays that played well in this matchup on Friday and at near minimum price are options in this game.
Elite Plays
One guy that benefits a ton from all the injuries is Covington. Not only are his minutes a bit more guaranteed (played 41 in his last game), but also his usage goes up along with his shot total (18 in the last game). He played well against Miami in these same circumstances on Friday and we should expect him to hit/exceed value here today.
FD — $5,400 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SF
Usage – 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 27.4
Secondary Plays
The other guy that is getting a nice bump with all the injuries is Ish Smith. He played 38 minutes and put up 42.1 fantasy points in this matchup on Friday and will be expected to carry the load again today for the Sixers. These guys are not fully safe plays as this game is being played in Miami, but the lack of depth today forces them to play big minutes and should both hit value.
FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $6,400 — PG
Usage – 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 27.2
Another guy that played huge minutes on Friday was Grant who will be looked at to play similar minutes today with all the big men hurt for the Sixers. He has much less upside than the other two mentioned, but does make a decent punt play who should put up about 25 fantasy points today.
FD — $5,000 — PF
DK — $5,100 — SF
Usage – 15.9
Min/Game — Season: 26.3
Miami
Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 212.3 (28 of 30)
The Sixers are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as shown by their bottom third of the league standings in all the above defensive categories. The blowout potential is clearly here for the Heat today as they are 14.5 point favorites, which does bump their plays down a bit, but could make solid tournament plays if the game stays close.
Elite Plays
Whiteside played great after letting a lot of people down on Thursday against the Suns. He came back to play 34 minutes and put up a 47.8 fantasy effort against this same Sixers squad. He has tremendous upside as seen by some of his monster block games and makes a solid play against a Sixer team that just can’t matchup up with him inside.
FD — $8,600 — C
DK — $8,400 — C
Usage – 17.9
Min/Game — Season: 28.7
Secondary Plays
The rest of the Heat guys are in play, but more tournament plays only due to the possible blowout. This includes Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and Luol Deng who are all playable in this matchup, but do come with some risk.
Houston at Toronto – 06:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -7, 213.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Smith-Howard
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Houston | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213 |  | Vegas Total | 213 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.3 | Team Proj. | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.96 | Team Pace | 95.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Josh Smith | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | James Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 16 | Opp. Season | 15 | 21 | 30 | 30 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 11 | Opp. Season | 17 | 23 | 23 | 11 | 20 | |
Houston
Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.3 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.1 (4 of 30)
The Raptors are one of the better defensive squads this year and are ranked fifth and fourth in points allowed and fantasy points allowed respectively. Houston is coming off a back to back today with a fight to Toronto, which could mean some tired legs and are seven point underdogs because of it. Houston has a 104 projected team total, which is 1.6 points lower than their season average. The Rockets look fully healthy other than Terrence Jones not playing the last few games due to a coaches’ decision.
Elite Plays
One of the highest floor players any time he plays, Harden makes a solid play regardless of the matchup. While taking some of the lower priced stars like Middleton is an option, Harden is the shooting guard on this slate with 60 point upside in what should be a high scoring game.
FD — $10,900 — SG
DK — $10,500 — SG
Usage – 32.3
Min/Game — Season: 37.7
Secondary Plays
None – I would rather pay up for Whiteside and Drummond or pay down for Len at the center position.
Toronto
Houston Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.58 (27 of 30)
Elite Plays
While the matchup with Beverley is not ideal, Kyle Lowry has been stuffing the stat sheet way too much recently to ignore him in this matchup where they have a huge team total. He has been over 40 fantasy points in six of his last nine starts including his 68.5 fantasy point outing against the Cavs just two weeks ago. Lowry is a top option at the point guard position and I have him just behind Westbrook and right there with Lillard for second best point guard on the slate.
FD — $9,100 — PG
DK — $8,800 — PG
Usage – 25.9
Min/Game — Season: 37.0
DD continues to be a consistent option at the shooting guard position and his price continues to hover in the sub 8k range. He has the ideal matchup today against the Rockets and Harden who have the 21st ranked defense against the shooting guard position this year.
FD — $7,800 — SG
DK — $7,600 — SG
Usage – 28.5
Min/Game — Season: 36.1
Secondary Plays
None