NBA Grind Down: Sunday, May 6th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans – 3:30 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 231.0 |  | Vegas Total | 231.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.5 | Vegas Spread | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 118.3 | Implied Team Total | 112.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Andre Iguodala | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Nikola Mirotic | Anthony Davis | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 25 | 27 | 21 | 19 | DvP | 12 | 20 | 11 | 28 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 17 | 11 | 2 | 24 | 3 | |
Golden State Warriors
Notable Injuries
None
The Warriors took a 119-100 loss to the Pelicans on Friday but still have a 2-1 series lead. On Friday, the Warriors started JaVale McGee and moved Andre Iguodala back to the bench, but that move wasn’t a success as McGee finished with just two points and two rebounds over nine minutes. I would be surprised if Coach Kerr doesn’t make another change for Game 4. One option would be to move Iguodala back to the starting unit, which would make the most sense as the Warriors struggled out of the gate in Game 3 and he would provide another stable veteran presence early on. The other option is to move Kevon Looney into the starting lineup. Looney continues to see steady minutes regardless of his role in this series and is a fine punt play.
Klay Thompson came out on fire scoring 20 points in the 2nd quarter, but he finished with just 26 points for the game. That’s just not going to cut it. The good news is Stephen Curry played 29 minutes and could’ve topped 30 minutes had this game stayed competitive down the stretch. The Pelicans were solid defensively on Curry as he shot just 6-for-19 from the field.
Draymond Green continues to fill the box score and was an assist shy of a triple-double. Given his role and heavy minutes, he continues to be my favorite option on the Warriors. The box score had Kevin Durant scoring 22 points off 8-for-18 shooting, which is great, but what the box score doesn’t show was how disengaged he was at times on the defensive end. If you check out a series of clips here by beat writer Anthony Slater, it shows Kevin Durant not switching over to adjust for the screens. I’m not sure why Durant didn’t try harder during these plays as this was in the 2nd quarter when the game was close – maybe he was fatigued or frustrated about something on the court – but the Warriors can’t allow these simple screens to lead to easy buckets.
Hopefully this was a wakeup call for the Warriors, and knowing Coach Kerr, he’ll find a way to at least re-engage his team in wake of this loss.
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 113.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 118.3 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,800 | $8,500 | $15,400 | 44.1 | -1.7 | 32.0 | -4.8 | 1.38 | 28.1% | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,800 | $6,200 | $12,900 | 30.4 | 0.1 | 34.3 | 4.2 | 0.89 | 20.7% | 25 | 25 | 1 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 18.7 | 4.9 | 25.4 | 2.1 | 0.74 | 11.5% | 18 | 27 | 28 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,400 | $9,000 | $18,500 | 47.2 | 1.6 | 34.2 | 2.9 | 1.38 | 26.9% | 25 | 21 | 11 |
| Draymond Green | $8,700 | $8,100 | $14,700 | 36.0 | 10.8 | 32.7 | 4.3 | 1.10 | 16.7% | 14 | 19 | 1 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 18.7 | 4.9 | 25.4 | 2.1 | 0.74 | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kevon Looney | $3,600 | $3,200 | $6,700 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 13.8 | 7.2 | 0.89 | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David West | $4,000 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 17.3 | 1.4 | 13.7 | 1.1 | 1.26 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green
Secondary Plays – Andre Iguodala, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson
New Orleans Pelicans
Notable Injuries
None
The Pelicans deserve a ton of credit showing up in Game 3 and taking control of the game very early on. To nobody’s surprise, Anthony Davis delivered a huge 33 point, 18 rebound performance. The Warriors did a decent job defensively on Davis to start the game, as he was just 5-for-14 in the first half. But once the second half started, Davis got on a roll and shot 10-for-13 the rest of the game.
Meanwhile, Rajon Rondo continues to lead this team and set a team playoff record with 21 assists. He shot just 2-for-11 from the field but it didn’t impact the Pelicans too much. Jrue Holiday was a defensive force with two steals and two blocks, and the clean-shaven Nikola Mirotic posted a 16 point, 13 rebound double-double.
The most surprising performance in Game 3 may have been the play of Ian Clark in a #revengegame against his former team. Clark played 22 minutes and finished 7-for-11 from the field for 18 points. Solomon Hill also had a surprisingly nice game with nine points off the bench in just 14 minutes while relieving Nikola Mirotic. In Game 3, the Pelicans’ bench outscored the Warriors’ bench 32 to 20. Clark is definitely in-play as a punt option in Game 4 if you need salary relief. E’Twaun Moore did play 36 minutes but they were a quiet 36 minutes, as he finished with just 13 points. Maybe we’ll start to see Clark’s role increase as Moore’s decreases if Clark continues to produce at this level.
The Pelicans stated that the main difference in Game 3 was their defensive urgency. It definitely worked and it’ll be fun to see if they bring it again in Game 4.
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 9.6 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $7,900 | $8,000 | $14,600 | 27.0 | 15.4 | 26.2 | 9.2 | 1.03 | 18.3% | 11 | 12 | 17 |
| Jrue Holiday | $9,200 | $7,900 | $14,900 | 37.7 | 3.5 | 36.1 | 1.8 | 1.04 | 21.8% | 11 | 20 | 11 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,500 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 21.5 | -3.3 | 31.5 | -2.9 | 0.68 | 14.6% | 7 | 11 | 2 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $7,100 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 30.1 | 9.3 | 27.2 | 9.0 | 1.11 | 20.5% | 5 | 28 | 24 |
| Anthony Davis | $12,800 | $11,100 | $21,900 | 55.0 | 3.6 | 36.4 | 2.3 | 1.51 | 25.9% | 16 | 7 | 3 |
| Ian Clark | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 12.4 | -4.1 | 19.7 | -0.7 | 0.63 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Darius Miller | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 13.1 | -0.5 | 23.7 | -4.3 | 0.55 | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo
Secondary Plays – Ian Clark, Nikola Mirotic
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz – 8:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Utah Jazz | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.0 | Vegas Spread | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | P.J. Tucker | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Donovan Mitchell | Royce O’Neale | Joe Ingles | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | DvP | 6 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 4 | |
Houston Rockets
Notable Injuries
None
The Rockets lead the series 2-1 and won Game 3 by a commanding 21 points in Utah. If you told the Jazz that James Harden would finish with just 25 points and 12 assists, they’d probably be content with that stat line. Unfortunately for the Jazz, everyone else stepped up and the Rockets led 70-40 at halftime. According to Coach D’Antoni, the main change was just their energy:
“We just adjusted our attitude and spirit and energy and did it.”
The Rockets played incredible defense, and the Jazz really showed how much they missed point guard Ricky Rubio in this game. Donovan Mitchell was shut down and shot just 4-for-16 in the game, while Joe Ingles finished just 2-for-10 with five turnovers. Trevor Ariza was given heaps of praise after the game by his teammates for clamping down on Mitchell. In Game 3, Ariza had a +40 in the +/- column, which is impressive.
Perhaps the star of Game 3 on the Rockets was Eric Gordon. Gordon came in shooting 5-for-22 through the first two games in this series but nailed 8-of-13 in Game 3 to finish with 25 points. The good news is he’s seen at least 31 minutes in every game this series so the opportunity is there – this is just the first time all series he’s been able to capitalize on the minutes. Gordon is fairly affordable and if you’re building multiple teams, you’ll need exposure to him in case he can repeat this performance in Game 4. Just know he doesn’t add much else besides scoring, so he’s very shooting dependent.
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -5.4 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,500 | $7,300 | $13,700 | 40.4 | -2.3 | 31.8 | 1.0 | 1.27 | 25.8% | 9 | 17 | 6 |
| James Harden | $12,500 | $10,900 | $21,500 | 53.2 | 2.6 | 35.4 | 0.6 | 1.50 | 33.8% | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Trevor Ariza | $4,600 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 23.7 | -4.9 | 33.9 | 0.2 | 0.70 | 13.4% | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,400 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 17.2 | 0.1 | 27.8 | 1.1 | 0.62 | 9.3% | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Clint Capela | $8,800 | $7,000 | $13,500 | 34.9 | 6.4 | 27.5 | 4.2 | 1.27 | 16.6% | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,200 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 25.4 | -4.3 | 31.2 | 0.1 | 0.81 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $3,000 | $2,700 | $6,000 | 16.2 | -3.7 | 25.6 | -7.3 | 0.63 | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Clint Capela, James Harden, Chris Paul
Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker
Utah Jazz
Notable Injuries
Derrick Favors (Questionable), Ricky Rubio (Questionable)
Ricky Rubio is listed as questionable for Game 4 but didn’t go through a full practice on Friday. Still, he’s missed the first three games of this series and the Jazz know if they fall behind 3-1 to the Rockets, they have no more margin for error. Meanwhile, Derrick Favors is dealing with an ankle injury but intends to play through it on Sunday. To be honest, Favors has been playing so poorly lately that I don’t have much interest in him anyway.
The Jazz are struggling right now without a true point guard in Ricky Rubio. While Joe Ingles and Donovan Mitchell have been acting as the team’s point guards, these two combined for a 4:8 assist to turnover ratio in Game 3.
In terms of the DFS impact, if Favors were to miss the game or be limited in any way, that’s a boost for Jae Crowder. Crowder saw 25 minutes in Game 3 while Favors missed the entire second half of the game. If Rubio is out once again, Ingles and Mitchell will continue splitting point guard duties while guys like Dante Exum, Raul Neto and Alec Burks will see some extra minutes. The main player to benefit would be Royce O’Neale, who continues to start and led the team in scoring during Game 3 with 17 points.
It’s noteworthy that in Game 3, the Jazz starters shot zero free throws. That’s right, none of the starters even attempted a free throw. The Jazz just weren’t drawing fouls and forcing the Rockets to make difficult plays on defense. If you watch some of the clips of Donovan Mitchell in this game, rather than draw the contact or find the right teammate, he takes a difficult shot. This is why he shot 4-for-16 from the field, and why it would not shock me if Ricky Rubio played through the pain and suited up for Game 4. It’s clearer now than ever the Jazz need him to help set up better shots.
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -2.1 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | $8,500 | $7,800 | $14,100 | 33.2 | 9.4 | 33.4 | 5.1 | 0.99 | 25.8% | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| Royce O’Neale | $4,900 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 16.7 | 3.8 | 0.75 | 13.4% | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| Joe Ingles | $6,600 | $5,400 | $11,500 | 25.7 | 0.3 | 31.4 | 3.5 | 0.82 | 15.7% | 18 | 8 | 10 |
| Derrick Favors | $5,700 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 27.2 | -1.0 | 28.0 | 2.4 | 0.97 | 16.2% | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Rudy Gobert | $7,600 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 35.8 | -0.2 | 32.4 | 3.2 | 1.11 | 14.0% | 13 | 14 | 4 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,800 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 18.0 | 5.4 | 26.1 | 2.8 | 0.69 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Dante Exum | $3,000 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 16.0 | -9.7 | 16.8 | -5.7 | 0.95 | 21.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alec Burks | $3,900 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 14.0 | 0.3 | 16.5 | -6.2 | 0.85 | 19.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |