NBA Grind Down: Sunday, November 20th - Page Two
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Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers – 9:30 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.5 |  | Vegas Total | 222.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.5 | Vegas Spread | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 113.5 | Implied Team Total | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Wilson Chandler | Paul Millsap | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Kyle Kuzma | Brook Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 25 | 22 | 4 | 23 | 18 | DvP | 29 | 5 | 30 | 22 | 1 | |
| DRPM | 0.54 | 0.08 | -0.49 | -1.18 | 1.93 | DRPM | -1.23 | 0.60 | -0.49 | 1.84 | 2.86 | |
Denver Nuggets
Notable Injuries
None
It’s the Lakers as the opponent, so naturally we can give the Nuggets a healthy fantasy upgrade. Their implied team total of 114 points is behind only the Warriors for the highest mark on today’s slate. The Nuggets are also coming off a 146 point outburst against the Pelicans, so they should be full of confidence on offense heading into this favorable matchup. Jamal Murray is finally starting to showcase his fantasy upside, and he has had a fantastic month of November to date. While it is always difficult to trust coach Malone with regard to minutes, Murray almost has to enter elite play status given tonight’s matchup. A dud is absolutely possible, but Murray can’t be ignored here. Gary Harris returned and had a solid game, and he’s the safest play from the backcourt, though he doesn’t bring the upside of Murray.
Malone understandably rode the hot hand in the last game, so I wouldn’t read too much into slightly lower minutes for the likes of Will Barton and Nikola Jokic. The game was also a blowout in the closing minutes, so the key players weren’t required to be on the floor. With a matchup against the Lakers, both Barton and Jokic are strong options. If this game stays close, we should see both of them exceed 30 minutes in this game. I will likely put at least two Denver players on every roster I make on a short four game slate. Paul Millsap and Wilson Chandler also check in as solid secondary options, though Chandler’s playing time has been very hit or miss this year.
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 7.7 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.7 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $5,600 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 20.5 | 4.8 | 25.9 | 4.4 | 0.79 | 22.3% | 52.1% | 25 | 0.54 |
| Gary Harris | $5,700 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 24.6 | -6.1 | 31.6 | 4.6 | 0.78 | 15.3% | 59.1% | 22 | 0.08 |
| Wilson Chandler | $4,900 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 18.7 | 0.4 | 30.9 | 2.8 | 0.60 | 12.6% | 51.2% | 4 | -0.49 |
| Paul Millsap | $7,500 | $7,200 | $13,800 | 32.8 | 9.3 | 31.0 | 5.7 | 1.06 | 21.3% | 52.3% | 23 | -1.18 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,100 | $9,200 | $16,700 | 41.6 | -1.2 | 31.5 | 2.0 | 1.32 | 20.6% | 60.0% | 18 | 1.93 |
| Emmanuel Mudiay | $4,300 | $4,400 | $9,900 | 20.0 | -1.5 | 23.3 | 1.4 | 0.86 | 22.8% | 53.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Will Barton | $5,800 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 29.2 | 3.9 | 29.6 | 4.7 | 0.99 | 20.4% | 56.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jamal Murray, Gary Harris (Cash), Nikola Jokic, Will Barton
Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap, Wilson Chandler
Los Angeles Lakers
Notable Injuries
None
Lonzo Ball got a new haircut, but a new haircut doesn’t help somebody learn to shoot. He had six points, six rebounds, and six assists against the Suns the other night, and he’s simply over-priced in DFS right now. You’re better off passing. Even though he played 38 minutes the other night, Luke Walton has had no qualms about putting Ball on the pine in favor of Jordan Clarkson down the stretch of some games. Speaking of Clarkson, he is reasonably priced, but the inconsistent playing time renders him better utilized in GPP formats. The Nuggets have struggled against point guards this year, and hopefully Clarkson can find his way to 25+ minutes tonight.
Luke Walton loves Kyle Kuzma, and Kuzma is going to continue to get heavy minutes, especially after his 30 and 10 performance on Friday night. Don’t sleep on him as one of the better mid-range plays on this slate. His emergence has rendered Julius Randle almost unplayable for DFS formats. Even though Randle is a strong point per minute option, he is rarely eclipsing 20 minutes on a nightly basis. Brandon Ingram is a solid, safe option at small forward, as his minutes are secure, but the ceiling leaves a little bit to be desired. If you want to look for risk/reward upside, Brook Lopez is in play. However, I don’t love the matchup against Jokic, and his minutes are a moving target. I will likely stick to Kuzma up front.
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 103.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 5.3 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.8 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $7,600 | $7,000 | $13,400 | 31.2 | 2.6 | 32.3 | -2.9 | 0.97 | 19.6% | 36.4% | 29 | -1.23 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,300 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 25.5 | 2.0 | 33.7 | 2.9 | 0.76 | 14.9% | 50.8% | 5 | 0.60 |
| Brandon Ingram | $6,300 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 27.4 | -0.8 | 33.8 | 2.1 | 0.81 | 18.3% | 51.3% | 30 | -0.49 |
| Kyle Kuzma | $6,600 | $6,900 | $12,900 | 25.4 | 4.9 | 31.1 | 4.2 | 0.82 | 17.7% | 58.3% | 22 | 1.84 |
| Brook Lopez | $6,200 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 27.4 | -5.9 | 24.0 | -2.3 | 1.14 | 22.7% | 55.0% | 1 | 2.86 |
| Julius Randle | $5,200 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 23.6 | -1.0 | 20.4 | 4.7 | 1.16 | 19.6% | 58.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Clarkson | $4,800 | $5,500 | $12,100 | 24.2 | 4.9 | 22.0 | 4.1 | 1.10 | 27.4% | 57.5% | N/A | N/A |