NBA Grind Down: Sunday, November 29 - Page Two
Phoenix at Toronto – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -4.5, 204.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Knight-Tucker-Morris-Chandler
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Scola-Biyombo
| Phoenix | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 102.92 | Team Pace | 96.91 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Brandon Knight | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Luis Scola | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 20 | Opp. Season | 24 | 20 | 26 | 9 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 21 | Opp. Season | 29 | 23 | 21 | 28 | 10 | |
Phoenix (Record: 7-9, Away 2-4)
Toronto Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +4.5 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.25 (8 of 30)
The Raptors have been a top ten defense in the early part of this season. The are allowing only 96.6 points per game and now have a matchup against the fastest Pace team on the slate today in the Suns (102.6 Pace). This game features the highest total of the night slate at 205 and the Suns have a team total of 100, which is 5.5 points lower than their points per game on the year.
Brandon Knight is the top target for the Suns, especially with Lowry most likely to be on Bledsoe for this game. He has been playing very well recently and has put up 55+ fantasy points in three of his last seven games. Tyson Chandler is considered doubtful for this game, which should open up some value, but the value of the big men on the other side are much better plays than the likes of Alex Len and Jon Leuer. Lastly, Eric Bledsoe is a decent secondary play. His ceiling in very high in any matchup, but is a bit expensive.
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight
FD: $7,900 DK: 7,900
Usage: 26.7
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe
FD: $8,500 DK: 8,300
Usage: 27.8
Toronto (Record: 11-6, Home 4-1)
Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.5 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.5 (14 of 30)
The Suns are a great team to target in terms of fantasy purposes as they play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA. This is a big pace up game for the Raptors as they feature the highest team total of the day at 105, which is four points higher than their points per game average this year.
Kyle Lowry has been fantastic this year and is clearly in play at the point guard position today. The Raptors do feature some solid value in Luis Scola and Bismack Biyombo. The latter looks to be an elite play for his price and his production. He didn’t score a basket yesterday but had 16 rebounds and 30 fantasy points. DeMar DeRozan is also in play today as the high-scoring nature of this game should lead to a lot of fast breaks and open looks for the shooting guard.
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry
FD: $8,600 DK: 8,500
Usage: 26.5
Bismack Biyombo
FD: $3,600 DK: 4,600
Usage: 11.0
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan
FD: $7,500 DK: 7,100
Usage: 26.9
Luis Scola
FD: $4,600 DK: 5,300
Usage: 18.6
Houston at New York – 07:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Houston -1.5, 200 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
| Houston | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.13 | Team Pace | 96.64 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 13 | Opp. Season | 23 | 25 | 28 | 29 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 29 | Opp. Season | 13 | 28 | 28 | 9 | 2 | |
Houston (Record: 6-10, Home 2-3)
New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.8 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.5 (9 of 30)
While the Knicks get a great paced up matchup here in this game, the opposite is true for the Rockets. The Knicks have been a top ten team this year in points and fantasy points allowed and they play at the second lowest Pace on the slate. The Rockets have a 100.5 team total today, which is slightly higher than their average this year.
James Harden always requires a mention regardless of the matchup. He is the most expensive player on the board, yet has been on fire recently, scoring over 54 fantasy points in each of his last three games. Dwight Howard also deserves a mention as he appears to be getting healthier and is projected to play in a back to back set here, but is a secondary play due to the matchup.
Elite Plays
James Harden
FD: $10,700 DK: 10,200
Usage: 33.5
Secondary Plays
Dwight Howard
FD: $8,100 DK: 7,400
Usage: 17.4
New York (Record: 8-9, Home 3-5)
Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.9 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 215.7 (30 of 30)
The Rockets have not been good at all on the defensive end this year. They are allowing 106.8 points per game for 28th in the league and are in the bottom third of the league in the other defensive categories above. This game does feature just a 199.5 total as the Knicks have just a 96.8 Pace on the year.
Kristaps Porzingis is in play today in what should be a pace up matchup for this Knicks squad. His price is getting a bit high across the industry, but he does have a very high ceiling and is a great tournament play at around 7k with 45 point potential. Carmelo Anthony is another Knick that should benefit immensely from this matchup. He is usually the under-owned star, and deservedly so with some of his performances this year. Yet, he should put up a ton of shots today and could break out in this game, as the Rockets are 28th in the league at defending the small forward position.
Elite Plays
Kristaps Porzingis
FD: $7,000 DK: 7,500
Usage: 22.9
Carmelo Anthony
FD: $8,700 DK: 8,000
Usage: 28.8
Secondary Plays
None
Indiana at L.A. Lakers – 09:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -10, 202 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-Miles-George-Mahinmi
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Russell-Clarkson-Bryant-Randle-Hibbert
| Indiana | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.0 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.53 | Team Pace | 99.1 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | C.J. Miles | Paul George | Ian Mahinmi | Proj Starter | D’Angelo Russell | Jordan Clarkson | Kobe Bryant | Julius Randle | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 18 | 22 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Season | 1 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 24 | Opp. Season | 3 | 24 | 17 | 15 | 17 | |
Indiana (Record: 10-5, Away 4-3)
L.A. Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 227.62 (29 of 30)
Any time the Lakers step on the court, we immediately have a great matchup to target. They are ranked 26th or lower in all the defensive categories above and are just an all around terrible defensive squad. The Pacers are in a great spot today as long as the game stays close.
Paul George is an elite play in an elite matchup tonight. He is arguably the safest stud on the board, and although he has gotten expensive, he makes for a great play at the small forward position today. The Pacers do not feature a whole lot more other than George, but C.J. Miles definitely deserves a mention due to his recent play, cheap price, and matchup. If he can continue to play 30+ minutes, he will launch enough shots to make value for his cheap price today. Monte Ellis and George Hill are both secondary plays today as neither has put up the numbers we want to see for fantasy purposes, but both should put up solid games against this terrible defensive Lakers squad.
Elite Plays
Paul George
FD: $9,900 DK: 10,100
Usage: 30.3
C.J. Miles
FD: $5,200 DK: 5,400
Usage: 20.9
Secondary Plays
George Hill
FD: $6,300 DK: 5,900
Usage: 16.8
L.A. Lakers (Record: 2-13, Home 1-5)
Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.1 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 185.4 (4 of 30)
Just like with the Knicks and Rockets, one of these teams will benefit greatly from the matchup, while the other team becomes a very tough play. The Pacers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this year as they are in the top five in points allowed and defensive efficiency. The Lakers have a very low 96.3 team total for this game and the team should likely be avoided on a pretty large Sunday slate.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None