NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 16th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ


Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Indiana Pacers
Article Image Vegas Total 217.0 Article Image Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 109.5 Team Total 107.5
Pace +/- 0.5 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Jeff Teague C.J. Miles Paul George Kevin Seraphin Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 17 12 14 23 11 Adj. DvP 5 2 16 28 3
DRPM -0.18 -0.87 0.00 -0.37 2.27 DRPM -0.47 -0.69 0.81 1.82 1.86

Washington Wizards

The All-Star break is always bittersweet for me. I can’t wait to have a few days off of work and the daily grind of DFS, but at the same time, the break is a little too long. To make matters worse, the NBA send us out with a small two-game slate. The Wizards have won three games in a row and nine of their last ten. They draw a favorable matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Washington comes into the game as a 2-point favorite with an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the highest in the slate and slightly above their season average.

John Wall is the top overall play in the slate even though his matchup is mediocre at best. Jeff Teague is a competent defender and the Pacers are ranked 16th against point guards as a whole. In his last two meetings against the Indiana, Wall has scored 62 and 48 fantasy points. Bradley Beal has a slightly better individual matchup, as he’ll draw the defense of Glenn Robinson, C.J. Miles, and Monta Ellis. Beal is a strong play in all formats. Otto Porter has scored at least 36 fantasy points in three of his last four games. There is a chance Paul George could defend Beal, which would give Porter the favorable matchups against the Pacers’ shooting guards. Markieff Morris should be able to take advantage of a Pacers’ frontcourt that could be missing both Thaddeus Young and Lavoy Allen. Morris has scored at least 32 fantasy points in five of his last seven outings. Myles Turner is a strong low post defender, but Marcin Gortat is about a thousand dollars too cheap on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,400 $10,700 1.23 36.6 1.0 45.1 2.0 34.6% 0.2% 17 -0.18
Bradley Beal $7,600 $7,100 0.92 34.4 -1.4 31.7 -0.3 26.4% 1.7% 12 -0.87
Otto Porter $6,600 $6,200 0.84 33.8 -1.2 28.3 1.2 15.1% 1.6% 14 0.00
Markieff Morris $7,400 $6,900 0.85 32.1 -0.4 27.4 10.7 20.8% 5.1% 23 -0.37
Marcin Gortat $7,300 $6,000 0.86 34.5 -1.2 29.8 2.8 14.3% 0.5% 11 2.27
Kelly Oubre $3,500 $3,200 0.61 20.8 0.8 12.7 -7.4 13.5% -4.3% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat (DK)

Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat (FD)


Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have lost five games in a row after going on an impressive winning streak a few weeks back. They will try to end their slide tonight against the Wizards, who have been tremendous defensively over the last month of play. The Wizards used to be ranked in the bottom ten in every defensive category listed above and are now ranked above the league average in all four statistics. While the matchup doesn’t look great on paper, the Pacers are playing at home, which helps. They come into the game with an implied total of 107.5 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 1.8 points above their season average.

Jeff Teague has already faced John Wall and the Wizards three times this season, averaging 39 fantasy points per contest. The Wizards have been tough on opposing point guards this season, but we’ve seen a big enough sample to trust Teague in this spot. With Isaiah Thomas being so expensive and the point guard situation in Chicago murky, most of my lineups will be starting with Teague and John Wall. C.J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey, and Monta Ellis should all see between 20-30 minutes tonight, especially if Lavoy Allen is ruled out again. Ellis has been the most productive of the three recently, scoring at least 20 fantasy points in five straight games. Stuckey is an intriguing GPP play after only logging five minutes off the bench last night. Paul George has struggled with consistency this season and is priced up across the industry. He is going to be popular due to the limited number of options at small forward, but I prefer Jimmy Butler at a similar price point. Kevin Seraphin’s fantasy value hinges on the availability of Allen. He has let us down in his last two starts, but there isn’t a lot of value in this slate. Myles Turner may be my favorite center to target tonight. He has been more productive at home and may be asked to play 35 minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,200 $7,400 1.04 32.6 -1.6 33.9 -8.0 26.3% -7.5% 5 -0.47
C.J. Miles $3,900 $3,600 0.72 23.1 2.1 16.7 -1.9 17.6% 0.8% 2 -0.69
Paul George $8,600 $8,200 1.00 35.7 1.2 35.8 -2.9 27.5% -1.8% 16 0.81
Kevin Seraphin $4,300 $3,500 0.84 11.4 8.6 9.6 8.8 17.3% 2.1% 28 1.82
Myles Turner $6,500 $5,500 0.98 30.8 1.7 30.3 -1.5 19.5% 1.7% 3 1.86
Monta Ellis $4,200 $3,700 0.64 27.0 3.1 17.2 4.6 17.4% 2.3% 2 N/A
Al Jefferson $3,500 $3,000 1.07 14.7 1.5 15.7 -1.6 24.6% -7.7% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Myles Turner, Monta Ellis

Secondary Plays – Paul George, Kevin Seraphin (if Allen is out), Rodney Stuckey (GPP), C.J. Miles (GPP)


Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Chicago Bulls
Article Image Vegas Total 212.0 Article Image Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 105.5 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- -0.2
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Marcus Smart Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Jerian Grant Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 16 12 10 16 Adj. DvP 23 14 3 18 22
DRPM 0.03 0.08 1.56 1.89 0.22 DRPM -4.38 0.85 1.25 2.58 0.88

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have won four games in a row and nine of their last ten. They have moved up the standings into second place in the Eastern Conference. They draw a slightly pace-down matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked seventh in points allowed per game and 14th in defensive efficiency. The Celtics come into the game as 1-point underdogs with an implied total of 105.5 points. While their team total is 2.9 points below their season average, we can’t afford to fade a team completely in this two game slate.

Isaiah Thomas continues to score at an impressive rate, but his fantasy production has been down a bit as a whole. I’m a fan of his matchup against the Bulls’ rotating trio of point guards, but like John Wall and Jeff Teague better when you factor in salaries. Thomas is more of a tournament play in this slate. Marcus Smart has been terrific in his last three starts, averaging 34 fantasy points per contest. Smart is an elite play in all formats. Jae Crowder hasn’t topped 30 fantasy points in any of his last six games and his price hasn’t come down enough to warrant consideration. Al Horford has been awfully quiet as well, scoring more than 25 fantasy points only once in his last five games. At this point, Kelly Olynyk is the better play, especially given the huge price discount. Olynyk has scored at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last five games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $10,000 $9,300 1.21 34.5 1.4 41.7 -2.3 35.2% -1.1% 22 0.03
Marcus Smart $5,800 $5,700 0.77 31.0 5.5 23.9 9.1 20.1% -0.4% 16 0.08
Jae Crowder $6,100 $5,600 0.79 32.4 -3.4 25.6 -4.8 16.5% 0.9% 12 1.56
Amir Johnson $3,700 $3,300 0.80 19.9 -3.5 15.9 0.1 14.3% 1.8% 10 1.89
Al Horford $7,000 $6,800 1.00 33.1 -0.2 33.2 -7.4 22.4% -1.7% 16 0.22
Kelly Olynyk $4,600 $4,500 0.88 21.2 5.3 18.6 10.0 19.1% 0.9% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Al Horford


Chicago Bulls

The Bulls can’t get to the break soon enough. They would still be in the playoffs if the regular season ended today, but they are certainly trending in the wrong direction, losing six of their last ten games. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked 14th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bulls have an implied total of 106.5 points, which is 4.4 points above their season average. Dwyane Wade is not expected to play tonight, which Nikola Mirotic is expected to be back in the lineup.

With Dwyane Wade out, Jimmy Butler becomes close to a must play in all formats. Without Wade on the floor this season, Butler has a 35% usage rate and averages 51 fantasy points per 36 minutes. Michael Carter-Williams also sees a nice boost in Wade’s absence, as he should draw another start at shooting guard. Taj Gibson has really let us down in the last two games, but I don’t mind going back to the well against a Celtics’ team that is ranked 18th against power forwards and 26th in rebounding differential. Robin Lopez is also a viable punt at his price point. Even though Nikola Mirotic is inconsistent, he does have nice upside tonight against the Celtics and is cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Doug McDermott has played well in his last few games and is also an intriguing tournament play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Michael Carter-Williams $4,900 $5,100 0.84 22.0 0.4 18.5 -0.5 23.3% -2.9% 23 -4.38
Jerian Grant $3,500 $3,100 0.67 16.2 2.2 10.8 -0.7 17.7% -3.6% 14 0.85
Jimmy Butler $9,700 $9,100 1.14 36.5 -2.4 41.5 -2.5 29.3% 1.3% 3 1.25
Taj Gibson $4,600 $4,700 0.84 27.3 -3.9 23.1 -9.2 19.0% -1.6% 18 2.58
Robin Lopez $4,700 $4,400 0.78 28.1 -5.3 21.8 -3.6 16.3% 7.8% 22 0.88
Rajon Rondo $4,700 $4,200 0.87 26.4 -2.9 23.1 -7.8 22.1% 4.1% 23 N/A
Doug McDermott $4,400 $4,000 0.61 24.2 3.2 14.7 4.6 17.5% 2.1% 3 N/A
Bobby Portis $3,500 $3,400 0.75 11.8 3.4 8.9 5.1 16.9% 5.3% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Michael Carter-Williams, Taj Gibson

Secondary Plays – Robin Lopez, Rajon Rondo (GPP), Doug McDermott (GPP), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)


About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious