NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-28 19:56:26

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Milwaukee at Indiana

Vegas Line – Indiana -15.5, 197 Over/Under
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

Milwaukee

This is going to be a tough one to analyze. There has been some great work done by Ethan and another blogger on RG about the impact that potential blowouts have on fantasy value. The conclusion was that in the long run, it doesn’t typically hurt the fantasy value of the team that is favored. It does however, hurt the fantasy value of the underdog. Even though the Bucks played well against the Pacers the other night, they still lost by 10 and that game was played in Milwaukee.

This game will be played in Indiana where the Pacers have been rock solid all season long. The Pacers are only giving up 91 points per game this season which leads the league. The Pacers are also ranked 7th or better in terms of fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. Brandon Knight played well against the Pacers the other night, but I think they will adjust some things and give him some different looks. The bad matchup and potential blowout is more than enough reason to avoid all Bucks tonight.

Indiana

The Pacers have a great matchup against the Bucks, but once again we have to decide how much we want to factor in this potential blowout. The line is set at 15 points which is extremely high. Not only that, but the Pacers are trying to give minutes to Evan Turner to get him acclimated. That said, there are only 4 games on the schedule tonight and I think I am just going to analyze this game absent of any blowout factor.

The Bucks are ranked 19th or worse against all five positions on the floor over the last 15 days the Pacers put up 110 points against them the other night in Milwaukee. All five starters are in play here. David West has a terrific matchup against the weak interior defense of the Bucks. As does Roy Hibbert whose price is depressed across the industry. George Hill is also pretty cheap across the industry and makes a nice punt option at PG as he has topped 22 FP’s in 7 of his last 8 games.

Paul George – George has been on fire since the All-Star break. He’s scored at least 38 FP’s in each of his last 4 games, including a 45 FP performance against the Bucks the other night. George should be able to dominate both ends of the floor tonight. Even if he doesn’t get any run in the 4th quarter, I think he will still have a monster game tonight.

Lance Stephenson – Stephenson also played well the other night against the Bucks. He posted a huge stat line of 24 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists. He should be in for another nice outing. With Nate Wolters defending him, he should be able to get his own shot whenever he wants in and he should get close to double-digit rebounds as well.

Washington at Toronto

Vegas Line – Toronto -5.5, 195 Over/Under
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas

Washington

The Wizards and Raptors meet up for what is expected to be a pretty competitive game. We have two potential blowouts on the schedule and two games that are expected to stay close. The total is set at 195 points which is the lowest of the night. That said, this is actually a solid game to target tonight. The Raptors have recently picked up their pace of play which should help the Wizards fantasy value tonight.

The Wizards will be without Nene Hilario for the next 6 weeks and Kevin Seraphin is also out. That means that Trevor Booker will get the start at PF and Marcin Gortat will get all of the minutes he can handle at Center. Both are great options tonight even in a tough matchup against the frontcourt of the Raptors. I will be avoiding John Wall tonight, he has a very tough matchup against Lowry who has been shutting down PG’s all season long. Wall is only averaging 23 points, 5 assists, and 3 rebounds against the Raptors this season.

Bradley Beal – SG is a tough position to fill tonight. It’s typically the toughest position to fill on a full slate of games and a four game slate is no different. Beal offers a nice upside play. He’s really flourished over the last month in this offense and he has the best matchup of any Wizards’ player tonight.

Trevor Ariza – Ariza has scored at least 34 FP’s in 3 of his last 4 games and has a decent matchup tonight against Ross and the Wizards. One stat that stands out to me is that Ariza has posted at least 9 rebounds in 5 of his last 6 games. He should have a nice all-around game tonight.

Toronto

The Raptors are in a favorable position tonight. The Wizards are a weaker team defensively with Nene out of the lineup. On the season, the Wizards are giving up an average of 99.2 points per game which is right around what the Raptors are projected to score tonight. I don’t mind the matchup for the Raptors’ big men, but I’m not sure that any of them stand out as viable fantasy options. Amir Johnson has scored 22 or more FP’s in 5 straight games though, he may be worth a look if the price is right.

Kyle Lowry – Lowry rarely has bad games because he racks up fantasy points in so many different ways. Lowry has a nice matchup against Wall and he’s outplayed him in their first 3 meetings this season. In those contests, Lowry is averaging 18 points, 10 assists, 4 rebounds, and 3 steals. Dollar for dollar, Lowry is the top fantasy option at PG tonight.

DeMar DeRozan – DeRozan’s price is down across the industry and he’s the top SG option on the board. DeRozan has been very consistent this year and is averaging around 33 FP’s per game at home. I will be using both of the guards from the Raptors back-court tonight in cash games.

New York at Miami

Vegas Line – Miami -10, 201 Over/Under
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh

New York

The Knicks are 10 point underdogs tonight to the Heat. This game is expected to be fairly high scoring, but neither of these teams play at an extremely fast pace. The Knicks will roll out a starting lineup of Felton, Prigioni, Smith, Anthony, and Chandler. Amar’e Stoudemire will move back to the bench. Amar’e makes a decent punt option at PF, he is very cheap on DS tonight and should still see around 25 minutes of playing time.

The Heat have been very solid defensively this season. They are only giving up 98.4 points per game and are ranked 5th or better against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s in terms of fantasy points allowed. They have been average at defending big men this season though. Tyson Chandler is a nice punt option on both DK and FD, he should be able to dominate the glass and hopefully pick up a few blocks along the way.

Carmelo Anthony – In two games against the Heat this season, Melo is averaging 27 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals. Considering his price tonight on most sites, this isn’t going to be enough for him to cover value. However, with only 4 games on the schedule tonight, Melo is very much in play. If you are going to spend on a star tonight, I think Melo is the best option.

Miami

The Heat face a Knicks defense that is giving up 99.8 points per game this season. LeBron James is expected to be in the lineup tonight and he is expected to wear a mask after breaking his nose in their matchup against the Thunder. Looking at the DvP rankings of the Knicks, the two positions that we want to target tonight are the SG and SF positions. The Knicks are ranked 6th or better against PG’s, PF’s, and Centers in terms of fantasy points allowed.

LeBron James – How great would it be if LeBron wore a mask like Bane from Batman? He could be LeBane James. James has a nice matchup against the Knicks tonight and I don’t think a mask is going to be able to slow him down. Before the broken nose, he was playing his best basketball of the season. LeBron is in play on every site with the exception of DS where is is almost $25k.

Dwayne Wade – Wade has a few things in his favor tonight. He’s coming into this game with back to back 49+ fantasy point games, he has a great track record against the Heat, and he has very good splits at home this season. Oh, and did I mention that he will be defended by a combination of Prigioni and Smith?

Brooklyn at Denver

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -1, 201 Over/Under
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
Denver Proj. Starters – Brooks-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov

Brooklyn

The Nets should be primed for a nice bounce back game after getting torched by the Blazers in Portland last night. The good news is that the starter’s played very limited minutes and should be fresh for tonight’s game against the Nuggets. The Nuggets are giving up 104.6 points per game this season which is the 3rd most in the NBA. The Nuggets are also one of the faster paced teams in the league and the Nets are projected to score over 100 points which is much higher than their season average of only 97 points.

Deron Williams – Williams had been playing well until last night’s debacle. He should have a nice bounce back game against Brooks and the uptempo Nuggets. Even though his price has gone up on most sites, he’s one of my favorite PG plays tonight.

Paul Pierce – Pierce has scored less than 20 FP’s in 4 of his last 5 games, but should be able to get it going tonight against the Nuggets who will be missing Chandler on the wing. Pierce will be defended by a combination of Faried and Miller and I like both of those matchups.

Denver

The Nuggets are going to be without Ty Lawson and Wilson Chandler tonight which really opens up big minutes for Aaron Brooks, Randy Foye, Evan Fournier, and Quicy Miller. While the matchup against the Nets isn’t a great one, those two injuries put all 4 of these players in play tonight. Timofey Mozgov will likely get another start at Center. In his start the other night, he posted 25 FP’s in 25 minutes of play. He makes a solid punt option at Center again tonight. Kenneth Faried is also in play, he has very good home splits this season.

Aaron Brooks – Brooks will get another start at PG tonight and he has looked more and more comfortable each game since coming over from the Rockets. With Chandler out as well, I think Brooks is going to be asked to play 35+ minutes. He should be owned in all leagues tonight.

Randy Foye – Foye has topped 25 FP’s in each of his last 4 games and should be in for another big night tonight. With Lawson and Chandler out, Foye is going to be asked to play big minutes and take a bigger role in the offense.