NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 2nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Orlando at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Davis
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miles-Clark-Thompson-Varejao
Orlando
The Magic and Cavs have actually been two fast-paced teams, especially over the last couple of weeks. When I first saw that the total for this game was set at 197 points, my first thought was that it was too low. With a high scoring game ob tap and the Cavs only favored by two, there are quite a few fantasy options in this one. One injury to keep your eye on in this one is Nikola Vucevic. He is listed as questionable and if he can’t go, give a nice boost to both Glen Davis and Tobias Harris.
The Cavs have not been good defensively. They have defended the Center position well and rank 7th against the position this season. However, they are average or below average at defending the other 4 positions. Jameer Nelson could be in for a nice game here, PG’s have had major fantasy performances against the Cavs all season long and he should be able to outperform his salary.
- Tobias Harris – With the exception of the last game against the Warriors where the Magic got blown out, Harris has really been playing well. He had topped 25 FP’s in each of his previous 5 games and should be able to hit that mark tonight against the Cavs who are ranked dead last against SF’s this season.
Cleveland
The Cavs have really started to click offensively. They are averaging well above 100 points per game over the last couple of weeks. They are starting to push the tempo which really helps each player’s fantasy value. Kyrie Irving is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game and if he can’t give it a go, Jarrett Jack would become the top value play on the board. Keep your eye on the injury news as we get closer to tipoff.
The Magic have also defended the Center position well, but I don’t think that plays a big factor here because Vucey may not play and Varejao is basically matchup proof because of his style of play. I think Varejao makes a nice play for his price. If Vucey sits out, I also like Tristan Thompson because Glen Davis would likely slide over and defend Varejao.
Golden State at Miami
- Vegas Line – Miami -4, 204.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
Golden State
I can’t wait for this game. The young Warriors travel to Miami to take on the battle-tested Heat. If you based your picks off of the DvP rankings alone, the only real option here would be Andrew Bogut. That said, there are a couple of other factors that come in to play here. One is the pace of play, Miami is not scared to push the tempo when it’s advantageous and I think we see a high scoring game in this one. In addition to Bogut, I also like the plays of Stephen Curry and David Lee.
- Stephen Curry – On paper, this is a tough matchup for Curry. But he is playing in the spotlight against the defending champs and he is one of those players that loves to prove himself. He has really improved all areas of his game this season and makes a solid play tonight.
- David Lee – The Heat have not defended the paint that well this season and Lee is one of the better low-post players in the league. Not only that, but the Heat often play small ball and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Warriors stick Lee at the Center position. He should post a nice double-double tonight.
Miami
The Heat have a nice matchup tonight, but as always, the value of the Heat players really depends on who is going to be available. As of right now, Dwyane Wade is listed as a game-time decision. If he can’t go, give a nice bump to LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen. If you look at the DvP rankings, the Warriors have defended all positions well this season except for PG’s, but I wouldn’t take Chalmers unless Wade sits out.
- LeBron James – LeBron is the one player that you can take here regardless of Wade’s health. I like the matchup for him and think that he will get plenty of easy buckets in the open floor. He hasn’t posted a triple-double in quite a while and the uptempo nature of this game makes me think that tonight could be the night that he posts one.
Boston at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -4, 182.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Crawford-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Bass
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Deng-Boozer-Noah
Boston
The Celtics and Bulls are two of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Celtics only average 95 possessions per 48 minutes and the Bulls are even worse averaging 93. This game will be a defensive battle. With Sullinger going out of their last game with his hand injury, that could have opened up some minutes for Olynyk, but it sounds like Sully is fine and that he will play tonight. There aren’t any favorable matchups to exploit here so only use the Celtics players if they are extremely under-priced.
Chicago
The Bulls are also in a bad position tonight. This game is expected to be very low scoring with each team playing at a slow pace. With Luol Deng back in the lineup, that really hurts the minutes and production for Butler and Hinrich who had played well in his absence. For the most part, I will be fading players from both teams, but I did notice that Luol Deng was extremely cheap on a couple of sites.
Brooklyn at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -12, 205.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Pierce-Teletovic-Garnett
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
Brooklyn
The Nets awful season continues and will likely get even worse tonight. They are facing a Thunder team that has been blowing teams out lately. The Nets will have Andrei Kirilenko back tonight, but he will only be playing up to 12 minutes. That’s not nearly enough for him to make a fantasy impact on the game. Deron Williams is really cheap on SS tonight and is in play over there, but his price on the other sites is a bit too high considering the good chance of a blowout.
- Mirza Teletovic – Teletovic is the one player that I’m not worried about as far as minutes are concerned. The Nets got blown out the other night and he still played 30 minutes. He should see big minutes regardless of the outcome of this game. He makes a solid value play tonight.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder are in a tough spot tonight. While they have a great matchup, this game has blowout written all over it. It’s hard to predict blowouts in the NBA, but when there is a great chance of one happening, I like to play it safe and avoid it altogether. In my opinion, it would be smart to fade Kevin Durant tonight, he is too expensive for the matchup. Both Reggie Jackson and Serge Ibaka carry some value, but I think the best decision is to avoid the Thunder altogether.
New York at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- New York Proj. Starters – Udrih-Shumpert-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Belinelli-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
New York
The Knicks have a tough one in front of them tonight. These two teams are going in opposite directions and have close to inverse records. The Knicks are 11 point underdogs and I’m just not sure what we can expect out of them tonight. If they get down early, I could see them throwing in the towel. For that reason, I will be fading the expensive Carmelo Anthony. Tyson Chandler is in play on a couple of sites thanks to his cheap price tag, but he’s an average option at best.
- Beno Udrih – With Felton doubtful for tonight’s game, Udrih will likely get another start. While he is a bit too risky for me to trust in cash games, I do like him as a GPP play. He has nice upside for the price and the Spurs are ranked 22nd against the PG position this season.
San Antonio
I am so tired of seeing the Spurs as double-digit favorites. At this point, I typically just avoid them when they are playing. Not only is there a great chance of a blowout, but Coach Pop has a lot of his starters on minutes limit. He has said that he is not going to play Tony Parker more than 30 minutes which really hurts his fantasy value. The Knicks are ranked in the top 3 at defending both the PF and Center positions so Duncan and Splitter make less than appealing plays.
- Kawhi Leonard – The one player that I will be targeting a little bit is Kawhi Leonard. He can do a little bit of everything on the floor and he can rack up fantasy points in a hurry. His price has come down across the board and now is a good time to buy low on him.