NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 8th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 216.5 | | Vegas Total | 216.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.0 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | D’Angelo Russell | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Jarrett Allen | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 8 | 24 | 15 | 17 | DvP | 25 | 14 | 13 | 28 | 30 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 28 | 24 | 7 | 28 | |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets are one of the few teams near the bottom of the standings that does not own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft. Technically, they have no reason to tank and we have recently seen this team compete even in difficult matchups on the road. Tonight’s matchup against the Hornets is mediocre, as Charlotte is ranked 16th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Nets have an implied total of 105 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
We’ve seen Brooklyn ride the hot hand when it comes to their guards. Spencer Dinwiddie, D’Angelo Russell, and Caris LeVert have all logged big minutes in recent games, but they all cut into each other’s consistency. Dinwiddie offers the highest floor, Russell offers the highest ceiling, and LeVert is by far the cheapest. All three are viable tonight against the Hornets, but they aren’t necessarily players that I will be forcing into my lineups. They are best suited as the final piece into a lineup rather than the starting point.
Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, and Joe Harris should all play between 24 and 30 minutes at reasonable price points. Much like the three guards, I’m not looking to force any of these forwards into my lineups, especially now that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is back in the mix. Over his last two games, Hollis-Jefferson has played 31 and 24 minutes. His salary is very playable on both FanDuel ($5,300) and DraftKings ($5,500). Jarrell Allen is worth a look in tournaments. While his playing time is inconsistent, he has averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute this season.
Notable Injuries
None
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (8 of 10)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.8 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,500 | $6,000 | $12,500 | 29.6 | -0.8 | 29.3 | 3.0 | 1.01 | 22.7% | 18 | 14 | 18 |
| D’Angelo Russell | $7,400 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 27.1 | 3.8 | 25.3 | 5.5 | 1.07 | 29.2% | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 21.6 | 0.3 | 29.5 | 0.3 | 0.73 | 17.4% | 26 | 24 | 10 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $6,300 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 26.9 | 6.5 | 29.9 | 0.0 | 0.90 | 18.3% | 23 | 15 | 13 |
| Jarrett Allen | $4,900 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 18.1 | 4.7 | 18.9 | 5.7 | 0.96 | 14.1% | 10 | 17 | 9 |
| Caris LeVert | $5,100 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 24.1 | 0.5 | 25.8 | -3.0 | 0.94 | 21.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Harris | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 18.0 | 0.3 | 25.2 | -0.2 | 0.71 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $5,300 | $5,500 | $10,900 | 28.1 | -5.0 | 27.9 | -3.9 | 1.01 | 20.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Cash), Spencer Dinwiddie, D’Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert, Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Joe Harris
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have lost four games in a row and consequently have taken themselves out of playoff contention. They currently trail the eighth-seeded Bucks by six games with 17 to play. They draw a tremendous matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Charlotte has an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the third highest of the slate and five points above their season average.
Kemba Walker has an elite true usage rate and an elite matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 27th in efficiency against point guards. The problem is that he is priced at a premium. He basically needs 45+ fantasy points to reach value and he has only averaged 38 on the season. If you have read the Grind Down often, then you know that I rarely play Nicolas Batum. He always seems overpriced and shooting guard is a position that I typically pay up for or take the value approach. This is a rare slate where I will be actively targeting Batum. In addition to the matchup against the Nets, Batum has averaged 38 fantasy points over his last five games.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is cheap, but he has averaged less than 20 minutes per game over his last five. I would much rather play Jeremy Lamb off the bench, who has averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute this season. Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky are both viable punts at power forward. I slightly prefer Kaminsky, as he is significantly more productive on a per-minute basis. Dwight Howard is one of those players that could make or break the slate. He has 50 fantasy point upside against the Nets, who are ranked 30th in DvP against centers and 22nd in rebounding differential this season. Howard is incredibly volatile, but an elite tournament play with only five games on the schedule.
Notable Injuries
None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 5.0 (4 of 10)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $9,000 | $8,700 | $15,200 | 37.8 | -2.1 | 34.8 | -0.8 | 1.09 | 27.3% | 27 | 25 | 5 |
| Nicolas Batum | $7,300 | $7,100 | $13,200 | 27.6 | 10.0 | 31.6 | 1.2 | 0.87 | 18.5% | 11 | 14 | 28 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $3,700 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 19.2 | -10.3 | 25.4 | -8.0 | 0.76 | 14.9% | 6 | 13 | 24 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,100 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 19.1 | -2.4 | 25.8 | -1.2 | 0.74 | 12.8% | 29 | 28 | 7 |
| Dwight Howard | $8,400 | $8,300 | $15,200 | 36.5 | -4.1 | 30.4 | -3.6 | 1.20 | 19.5% | 29 | 30 | 28 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 24.1 | -4.8 | 24.6 | -1.4 | 0.98 | 21.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,300 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 19.4 | 1.5 | 23.2 | 1.1 | 0.84 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cody Zeller | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 17.0 | -4.4 | 19.0 | -2.5 | 0.90 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lamb (GPP), Dwight Howard (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Jeremy Lamb (Cash), Dwight Howard (Cash), Frank Kaminsky, Kemba Walker
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 209.0 | | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 0.0 | Vegas Spread | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 6 | DvP | 11 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 26 | 1 | 24 | 2 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have won seven of their last ten games. While they are currently in sixth in the Eastern Conference standings, they are only a game behind the Wizards for the fourth seed. They draw a difficult matchup for fantasy production, as they take on a Heat team that is ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Sixers have an implied total of only 104.5 points, which is the second lowest of the slate and three points below their season average.
Ben Simmons is not your typical point guard, but the Heat have been tough on the position this season. Simmons is not priced at any sort of discount and I prefer to target him in matchups where he can attack the paint at will. J.J. Redick has seen a decline in his minutes with Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova playing big minutes off the bench. In a difficult matchup, all three of these players are fringe tournament plays at best. Robert Covington has played well over his last five games, averaging 33 minutes and 30 fantasy points. His price has come up enough that I will only be looking at him in tournaments.
Dario Saric is finally priced correctly, but this isn’t what I would call an exploitable matchup. The Heat have a number of defenders that they can throw at him. As a whole, Miami is ranked seventh in DvP against power forwards. Joel Embiid is an intriguing play in all formats. He can dominate in any matchup and he has one of the highest true usage rates of any center in basketball. A matchup against Hassan Whiteside is difficult for most, but Embiid can beat you inside and out. With center being such a thin position, he’s firmly on my radar.
Notable Injuries
Marco Belinelli (Questionable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.9 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -3.4 (10 of 10)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $8,800 | $8,000 | $14,700 | 41.3 | -2.6 | 34.7 | -1.2 | 1.19 | 23.1% | 3 | 4 | 22 |
| J.J. Redick | $4,800 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 25.1 | -3.1 | 31.4 | -2.3 | 0.80 | 19.4% | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| Robert Covington | $5,600 | $5,500 | $11,500 | 27.2 | 2.3 | 32.3 | 1.0 | 0.84 | 15.0% | 13 | 3 | 9 |
| Dario Saric | $6,300 | $6,100 | $12,900 | 28.1 | 1.0 | 30.7 | 0.0 | 0.91 | 18.3% | 13 | 7 | 14 |
| Joel Embiid | $9,800 | $9,500 | $17,400 | 45.3 | -6.1 | 31.3 | -0.2 | 1.45 | 28.1% | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| T.J. McConnell | $3,800 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 20.4 | -5.9 | 24.3 | -2.3 | 0.84 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $4,300 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 22.0 | -4.6 | 25.2 | -4.4 | 0.87 | 15.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,000 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 17.9 | -3.6 | 23.6 | 0.4 | 0.76 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Joel Embiid (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, J.J. Redick (FD)
Miami Heat
The Heat have lost five of their last ten games and have dropped down to seventh in the Eastern Conference standings. Ideally, they would like to avoid a first-round matchup against the Raptors, Celtics, and Cavaliers, but they have some serious work to do. Their matchup against the Sixers is not ideal, but it helps that they are playing at home. The Heat come into the game with an implied total of 104.5 points, which is nearly three points above their season average.
Wayne Ellington is expected to play, which adds yet another body to this rotation. The Heat now have ten players that should see significant playing time every single game, which makes predicting rotations and fantasy production difficult. The Sixers are ranked first in efficiency against point guards, which takes Goran Dragic out of consideration. It’s hard to imagine Tyler Johnson playing more than minutes in the mid to upper 20s with Ellington back. Dwyane Wade should keep his 20-24 minute role off the bench and is worth a look on FanDuel ($5,100), but I don’t feel great about the play at this price point.
Josh Richardson is one of the safest bets to see 30 minutes in this lineup. I don’t love the matchup against Robert Covington, but Richardson is only $5,300 on DraftKings. James Johnson has been outplayed by Justise Winslow over the last couple of weeks. For now, Winslow is the preferred target. Kelly Olynyk offers upside in tournaments, but he’s shown time and time again that he shouldn’t be trusted in a cash game setting. Speaking of players that we shouldn’t trust, Hassan Whiteside is priced at a discount on FanDuel ($7,000). If he plays well tonight, he has 30-minute upside in a matchup against Joel Embiid.
Notable Injuries
Wayne Ellington (Probable)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 101.9 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6 (6 of 10)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.9 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,700 | $6,800 | $13,400 | 30.5 | 0.4 | 31.8 | -0.2 | 0.96 | 25.5% | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Tyler Johnson | $5,200 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 22.6 | 4.6 | 29.1 | -2.9 | 0.77 | 17.7% | 23 | 20 | 26 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,000 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 26.9 | 0.7 | 33.9 | -1.4 | 0.79 | 16.8% | 11 | 19 | 1 |
| James Johnson | $4,300 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 23.8 | -6.4 | 26.1 | -5.4 | 0.91 | 18.2% | 10 | 16 | 24 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,000 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 35.0 | -0.9 | 25.8 | -1.2 | 1.36 | 20.4% | 5 | 12 | 2 |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,100 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 24.2 | 5.3 | 23.3 | 1.4 | 1.04 | 23.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kelly Olynyk | $4,600 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 22.8 | -0.4 | 23.2 | -1.9 | 0.98 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Justise Winslow | $5,000 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 19.1 | 8.8 | 23.8 | 5.5 | 0.80 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Josh Richardson (DK), Hassan Whiteside (FD GPP)
Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson (FD), Hassan Whiteside (DK GPP), Goran Dragic (FD), Justise Winslow, Kelly Olynyk (GPP)
Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 217.0 | | Vegas Total | 217.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.5 | Implied Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Andrew Wiggins | Nemanja Bjelica | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 5 | DvP | 1 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 9 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 28 | 10 | 14 | 22 | DRPM Rat. | 24 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and seem destined for the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They still have a chance to catch the Raptors, but Toronto would have to lose a few games for that to happen. Tonight’s matchup against the Wolves is favorable, as Minnesota is ranked 15th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Celtics have an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate and five points above their season average.
Kyrie Irving missed the last game with a knee injury, but is expected to play tonight. His minutes have been all over the map recently, but we should expect a full complement in a game that features a two-point spread. Jeff Teague is not a defender that we should be worried about and Irving is priced at a discount on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have both seen a decline in their playing time.
For now, they can both be avoided. I had some interest in Terry Rozier in tournaments until I saw his price tag. The sites obviously didn’t know if Irving was going to play, so they priced Rozier up. When it comes to the Celtics’ bigs, I have more interest in the two off the bench than I do in the two in the starting lineup. Marcus Morris has averaged 28 minutes over his last five games and Greg Monroe has played at least 19 minutes in three straight. Morris is viable in all formats, while Monroe is strictly a GPP play.
Notable Injuries
Kyrie Irving (Probable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.4 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1 (2 of 10)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,500 | $8,000 | $14,700 | 38.8 | 4.8 | 32.5 | -2.6 | 1.19 | 29.6% | 15 | 19 | 21 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,200 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 25.4 | -0.3 | 31.0 | -5.0 | 0.82 | 18.1% | 30 | 17 | 28 |
| Jayson Tatum | $4,700 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 25.1 | -3.3 | 30.4 | -6.3 | 0.83 | 16.1% | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| Al Horford | $6,600 | $6,400 | $12,500 | 32.3 | -10.4 | 31.6 | -5.4 | 1.02 | 17.4% | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,700 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 15.4 | 4.4 | 17.8 | -0.9 | 0.87 | 14.3% | 26 | 5 | 22 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,900 | $5,400 | $10,500 | 22.1 | 1.6 | 25.2 | 3.2 | 0.88 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Smart | $5,000 | $5,300 | $11,900 | 24.0 | -0.9 | 29.7 | -4.5 | 0.81 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $6,000 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 22.2 | -0.3 | 24.3 | 0.6 | 0.91 | 19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving
Secondary Plays – Marcus Morris, Greg Monroe (GPP)
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves are doing their best to keep their head above water, or more accurately, above the cut-off line for the playoffs in the West. They have lost six of their last ten games and are only two and a half games in front of the Clippers and Jazz. Tonight’s matchup against the Celtics looks awful on paper, but it helps that the Wolves are playing at home. Minnesota has an implied total of 107.5 points, which is two points below their season average.
Jeff Teague has an exploitable matchup against Kyrie Irving when you look at the DRPM column in the table below, but the Celtics have a number of defenders that they can throw at him. As a whole, Boston is ranked first in DvP against point guards. The Celtics are a black hole when it comes to wing production against them. A player like Andrew Wiggins is an easy fade, as he relies heavily on scoring for his fantasy production. Nemanja Bjelica is more appealing, as he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He offers a high floor even in a difficult matchup and is one of my favorite plays at small forward.
Taj Gibson has been quiet over his last five games, averaging only 23 fantasy points per contest. For whatever reason, his salary takes longer than most to adjust to his form. I’d rather take a shot on Gorgui Dieng off the bench. Jamal Crawford is a viable punt on DraftKings ($3,900) even though the matchup isn’t in his favor. Karl-Anthony Towns is slightly overpriced on FanDuel, but on my short list of potential targets at center on DraftKings ($9,300). He has become the go-to option offensively with Jimmy Butler out of the lineup.
Notable Injuries
Jimmy Butler (Out)
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 109.7 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (9 of 10)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.3 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $7,400 | $7,000 | $13,400 | 30.8 | 7.9 | 33.1 | -0.4 | 0.93 | 20.2% | 6 | 1 | 24 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,400 | $6,300 | $12,800 | 28.9 | 1.9 | 36.1 | -0.1 | 0.80 | 21.0% | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Nemanja Bjelica | $5,300 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 13.5 | 11.6 | 17.4 | 15.9 | 0.78 | 12.9% | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,600 | $5,500 | $11,800 | 26.3 | -3.3 | 33.5 | -0.2 | 0.78 | 13.2% | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $10,400 | $9,300 | $17,400 | 43.5 | 2.3 | 35.0 | -1.2 | 1.24 | 19.7% | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| Jamal Crawford | $4,300 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 15.6 | 0.2 | 19.5 | 6.3 | 0.80 | 22.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gorgui Dieng | $3,800 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 15.7 | -3.3 | 17.7 | 2.3 | 0.89 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nemanja Bjelica, Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)
Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (FD), Jamal Crawford (DK), Gorgui Dieng
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 229.5 | | Vegas Total | 229.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.8 | Implied Team Total | 119.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Dragan Bender | Tyson Chandler | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Josh Huestis | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 21 | 8 | 14 | 2 | DvP | 30 | 30 | 20 | 30 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 6 | |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns have been one of our favorite teams to see on the schedule. They play at a fast pace, they hate defense, and their starters play a ton of minutes. While a matchup against the Thunder typically isn’t ideal, this game has all the makings of a shootout. The total is set at 229.5 points and the spread is a little lower than I was originally expecting. The Suns have an implied total of 109.8 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate and five points above their season average.
Elfrid Payton has been an auto-play for me over the last couple of weeks. He is regularly playing 35+ minutes a night and has averaged 37 fantasy points over his last five games. You know what they say, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Devin Booker is locked and loaded into my main lineup on FanDuel ($8,200) and is on my short list of potential tournament targets on DraftKings. He has averaged 46 fantasy points over his last five games and could push for 40 minutes tonight.
T.J. Warren is also an elite play in all formats. He feels a thousand dollars too cheap on almost every site. He’s been in great form and there’s a good chance that he will avoid the defense of Paul George, who will likely be on Booker. Josh Jackson provides plenty of upside off the bench, especially at a price of only $5,300 on FanDuel. The Suns’ frontcourt has been tough to predict all season and tonight will be no different. I don’t have an issue with Dragan Bender, Tyson Chandler, or Marquese Chriss in tournaments, but there are better cash game options available.
Notable Injuries
Troy Daniels (Probable)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1 (3 of 10)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,300 | $7,500 | $13,500 | 31.5 | 5.3 | 29.5 | 4.0 | 1.07 | 21.8% | 11 | 6 | 8 |
| Devin Booker | $8,200 | $8,900 | $16,200 | 37.8 | 8.2 | 34.5 | 2.5 | 1.10 | 28.7% | 18 | 21 | 3 |
| T.J. Warren | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,700 | 31.4 | 2.7 | 32.9 | 6.8 | 0.96 | 22.6% | 16 | 8 | 5 |
| Dragan Bender | $3,900 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 14.7 | 6.1 | 24.1 | 8.1 | 0.61 | 11.0% | 15 | 14 | 27 |
| Tyson Chandler | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 21.1 | -3.8 | 25.2 | -3.2 | 0.84 | 9.1% | 1 | 2 | 21 |
| Josh Jackson | $5,300 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 21.0 | 9.5 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 0.88 | 21.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alex Len | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 22.0 | -5.7 | 20.3 | -3.8 | 1.09 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marquese Chriss | $4,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 18.4 | 0.9 | 20.4 | -3.7 | 0.90 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren
Secondary Plays – Dragan Bender (GPP), Marquese Chriss (GPP)
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have won six of their last ten games, but have lost ground to the Utah Jazz, who are right on their heels for one of the last playoffs spots in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City should be able to take care of business tonight at home against the Suns, who are ranked dead last in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Thunder have a massive implied total of 119.8 points, which is the highest on the board and 13 points above their season average.
Russell Westbrook is the top overall play on the board. It’s easier to fit him into lineups on FanDuel, but I will be trying to work him into my DraftKings’ lineups as well. The Suns are the worst team in basketball at defending shooting guards. People may look to Josh Huestis for value, but he has yet to score 20 fantasy points in a game this season. Paul George could fly under the radar a bit tonight, despite the terrific matchup. I like using George as a complement to Westbrook or as a pivot play away from him.
Carmelo Anthony continues to grade out as a nice play in my model, but I always have a hard time clicking that plus button next to his name. He’s viable on FanDuel given his price point and matchup, but I don’t feel great about the play. Jerami Grant is a terrific tournament play, as he should see 20+ minutes off the bench in a matchup where he can rack up blocks and steals. If you don’t want to pay all the way up at center, Steven Adams is a great mid-range target. He is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and should have no problem putting up a solid outing against the Suns.
Notable Injuries
None
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 119.8 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 13.2 (1 of 10)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.3 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.6 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $12,000 | $11,800 | $22,300 | 54.0 | -2.0 | 36.3 | 1.9 | 1.49 | 34.4% | 30 | 30 | 23 |
| Josh Huestis | $3,500 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 0.53 | 7.9% | 28 | 30 | 28 |
| Paul George | $8,900 | $8,600 | $15,800 | 39.0 | 0.7 | 36.6 | 1.5 | 1.06 | 23.5% | 20 | 20 | 29 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,000 | $6,100 | $11,900 | 28.3 | -4.8 | 32.3 | 0.8 | 0.88 | 22.0% | 30 | 30 | 27 |
| Steven Adams | $7,100 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 31.5 | -1.1 | 32.8 | 3.2 | 0.96 | 14.3% | 22 | 25 | 6 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 17.2 | 1.1 | 20.8 | 0.2 | 0.83 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams
Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony (FD), Jerami Grant (GPP)
San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 221.0 | | Vegas Total | 221.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.0 | Implied Team Total | 116.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dejounte Murray | Patty Mills | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Davis Bertans | Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | JaVale McGee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 23 | 7 | 19 | 16 | DvP | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 11 | 20 | 1 | 23 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 28 | 1 | 15 | 23 | |
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs will be without two of their best players tonight, as they take on the defending champions. San Antonio comes into the game as 11-point underdogs, which puts this into the high risk/high reward category. We’ve seen Greg Popovich waive the white flag early in games like this, but we’ve also seen short-handed Spurs’ teams compete in similar situations. With an implied total of 105 points, there is upside with the Spurs, but also plenty of risk.
Dejounte Murray is a young player that makes mental mistakes at times. Popovich is quick to send him to the bench when this happens, which leads to inconsistent playing time. With that said, I expect Murray to play 28-30 minutes tonight, as he is an excellent defender and will be tasked with slowing Stephen Curry down. If you think the Spurs keep this game competitive, Murray should be on your radar. Patty Mills is basically playing 30+ minutes every game, which makes him an intriguing value play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Kyle Anderson has averaged 28 fantasy points over his last five games and will typically see 30+ minutes when he is playing well. Like Murray, he should be on your radar if you think the Spurs can keep this game close. Rudy Gay is only $4,300 on FanDuel and is one of the top point-per-dollar options at small forward. With Pau Gasol out, we can expect LaMarcus Aldridge and Davis Bertans to be heavily involved tonight. Aldridge offers great value at a price point of $7,700 on DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
Pau Gasol (Out)
Rudy Gay (Probable)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 102.3 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (5 of 10)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | $6,500 | $5,800 | $11,300 | 20.7 | 10.8 | 19.9 | 6.2 | 1.04 | 19.8% | 13 | 15 | 22 |
| Patty Mills | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 17.0 | 4.7 | 24.4 | 7.1 | 0.70 | 17.6% | 3 | 23 | 11 |
| Kyle Anderson | $6,200 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 24.3 | 3.2 | 27.3 | -0.6 | 0.89 | 13.2% | 11 | 7 | 20 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,200 | $7,700 | $14,100 | 38.6 | -7.3 | 33.6 | -4.2 | 1.15 | 25.6% | 11 | 19 | 1 |
| Davis Bertans | $4,400 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 12.6 | 1.8 | 15.4 | -0.7 | 0.82 | 15.8% | 13 | 16 | 23 |
| Rudy Gay | $4,300 | $5,600 | $11,900 | 22.7 | -0.8 | 22.3 | -2.4 | 1.02 | 20.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Manu Ginobili | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 16.6 | -0.5 | 20.6 | 0.4 | 0.80 | 20.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Danny Green | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 21.5 | 1.0 | 26.2 | -1.3 | 0.82 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dejounte Murray (GPP), Kyle Anderson (GPP), Rudy Gay (FD), LaMarcus Aldridge (DK)
Secondary Plays – Dejounte Murray (Cash), Kyle Anderson (Cash), Rudy Gay (DK), LaMarcus Aldridge (FD), Patty Mills, Davis Bertans, Danny Green (GPP), Manu Ginobili (GPP)
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are a tough team to figure out when they are healthy. They are a tough team to predict in potential blowouts. And finally, they are facing the Spurs, who are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. I know that most of my readers come here for advice, but even I’m scratching my head on what to do with the Warriors tonight. On a positive note, their implied total of 116 points is the second highest of the slate.
I’ll basically simplify the process — if you like the Warriors’ players tonight, target them with confidence. If you are worried about the matchup or a potential blowout, fade them with confidence. This is one of those spots where you have to have conviction one way or the other. Personally, I will be avoiding the big four from Golden State in cash games and am planning to make a game stack for one of my tournament lineups. My favorite plays in order are as follows: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and then Kevon Looney.
Notable Injuries
Jordan Bell (Out)
Patrick McCaw (Out)
David West (Doubtful)
Andre Iguodala (Doubtful)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 116.0 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.0 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (7 of 10)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,900 | $9,400 | $17,600 | 44.5 | -2.3 | 32.7 | -2.2 | 1.36 | 27.8% | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,500 | $6,100 | $11,900 | 30.2 | -1.1 | 34.2 | 0.7 | 0.88 | 19.9% | 1 | 3 | 28 |
| Kevin Durant | $9,800 | $9,200 | $17,900 | 47.0 | -6.9 | 34.4 | -1.1 | 1.37 | 25.9% | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Draymond Green | $7,700 | $7,300 | $13,700 | 36.6 | -4.3 | 33.0 | 2.2 | 1.11 | 16.7% | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| JaVale McGee | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.25 | 15.5% | 5 | 8 | 23 |
| Kevon Looney | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 9.3 | -2.9 | 11.0 | -0.4 | 0.85 | 10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nick Young | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 10.0 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 0.9 | 0.70 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
