NBA Grind Down: Thursday, November 7th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
L.A.Clippers at Miami
| L.A.Clippers | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 210.5 |  | Vegas | 210.5 | |||||||
| Spread | 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Pace | 100.67 | Pace | 97.51 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 10 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 24 | Season | 18 | 4 | 21 | 26 | 20 | |
| Last10 | 10 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 24 | Last10 | 18 | 4 | 21 | 26 | 20 | |
| Paul-Redick-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan | Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh | |||||||||||
L.A.Clippers
The Clippers lead the league in scoring at 113 PPG, but they also lead the league in points allowed. Every time the Clippers have played this season, there have been great fantasy options and I don’t expect tonight to be any different. On a night with only 3 games, you have to choose a game to take a few players from and this looks like the one to do it.
The Heat haven’t been nearly as effective on defense as they were last season. They have really only been good at defending PF’s and have struggled against the other positions. Vegas has the Heat slightly favored and the over/under set at 208 points.
Players to Target
- Chris Paul – CP3 is making an early case for MVP, he is averaging over 50 FP’s per game and leads the league in touches per game at 104. This means that when the Clippers score on offense, Paul is likely involved. He has the ball in his hands more than anyone in the league and is making good things happen in Doc’s offense. The Clippers feel like they have to prove themselves tonight against the Heat and they should play well.
- DeAndre Jordan – Griffin is also in play tonight, but Haslem has been the one solid defender on the Heat this season and he should body up Griffin. I still think Griffin will get his, but you can take DeAndre at a much cheaper price. DeAndre is playing great on both ends of the floor and is finally getting a full compliment of minutes. When you take DeAndre, you aren’t worried about his offensive game, as long as he is engaged on defense, his offense will follow.
Miami
The Heat are playing at a quick pace this season and are currently the 6th highest scoring team in the league. Lebron James and Dwyane Wade are both coming off of their best games of the season, but the Heat were without Chris Bosh in that game and he is expected to be back for tonight’s game. The role players for the Heat will in play tonight with this game at home.
The Clippers are playing at such a quick pace that their DvP rankings are really hurting. The Clippers are giving up more points than any team and rank in the bottom 12 against every position except for SG. I will likely be fading Dwyane Wade, but the rest of the team is in play.
Players to Target
- Lebron James – This game should be very high scoring and there should be enough shots to go around for Lebron to cover his value tonight. Lebron will be matched up with Jared Dudley to start the game and that is one of the biggest mismatches that I have seen in a long time. Play LeBron as the top option tonight, even slightly ahead of Chris Paul.
- Chris Bosh – Bosh should be back tonight after missing the last game to be there for the birth of his child. While DeAndre Jordan is known for his defense, Bosh doesn’t really play inside, he likes to take jumpers and attack the basket off of the dribble. I expect DeAndre to get caught in the paint on a few occasions and Bosh to get some open looks.
Atlanta at Denver
| Atlanta | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 203.0 |  | Vegas | 203.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Pace | 99.19 | Pace | 97.79 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 27 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 28 | Season | 6 | 30 | 23 | 12 | 9 | |
| Last10 | 27 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 28 | Last10 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 12 | 9 | |
| Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford | Lawson-Foye-Hamilton-Faried-McGee | |||||||||||
Atlanta
The Hawks have really picked up their pace this season and are averaging 99 possessions per 48 minutes. This has led to an increase in points per game as well as an increase in points allowed. The Hawks no longer have Josh Smith which has really opened up some production for a few players. Kyle Korver, Al Horford, and DeMarre Carroll have all benefited from the absence of Josh Smith.
You have to love their matchup tonight against the Nuggets. The Nuggets have been one of the worst defenses in basketball for years now and they haven’t gotten any better this season. This should be an extremely high scoring game with plenty of options. If you look at the DvP rankings, there are two positions that really stand out.
Players to Target
- Jeff Teague – Teague has been pretty consistent this season which is nice to see. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points in 3 of his 4 games this season and should be able top that number tonight against Lawson and the Nuggets who are ranked 27th against opposing PG’s. Look for Teague to push the tempo and get close to double-digit assists.
- Al Horford – Horford is often the forgotten center in daily fantasy. His price is usually almost as much as Cousins or Dwight and people usually end up taking one of them instead. But Horford has been very good this season averaging over 40 FP’s per game. He should have another good night as the Nuggets are ranked 28th against opposing Centers.
Denver
The Nuggets are playing at a slower pace this season, but it’s still a faster pace than the average team. Vegas has this game as the highest projected game of the night and the injuries to the Nuggets have really opened up some big minutes for a few players that are normally role players.
The matchup is a good one, the Hawks are giving up 104 points per game and rank in the bottom 7 against boht SG’s and SF’s. The problem is that the Nuggets are missing both of those positions with Chandler and Gallinari hurt.
Players to Target
- Ty Lawson – Even though the Hawks have been good against PG’s this season, Lawson is their main weapon on offense. With the injuries, he is their best player on the court and he should push the tempo tonight against this Hawks team. Lawson’s offense hasn’t been there this season, but he can catch fire and put up monster fantasy performances. On a short game schedule, he’s a risk I’m willing to take.
- Randy Foye – Foye is my sleeper pick tonight. He is dirt cheap across the board and has averaged over 30 minutes per game this season. Foye is also averaging close to 20 FP’s per game and should have another good night with this game at home.
L.A.Lakers at Houston
| L.A.Lakers | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 219.0 |  | Vegas | 219.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 13.5 | Spread | -13.5 | |||||||||
| Pace | 102.09 | Pace | 97.51 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 7 | 9 | 22 | 21 | 11 | Season | 30 | 27 | 19 | 17 | 14 | |
| Last10 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 21 | 11 | Last10 | 30 | 27 | 19 | 17 | 14 | |
| Nash-Henry-Young-Williams-Gasol | Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Asik-Howard | |||||||||||
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers haven’t looked great this season. Even though they are 2-3, their losses have been awful. I wish there were more games on the schedule tonight because this game could get ugly fast and I would love to fade both teams with the potential blowout. But with only 3 games on the schedule, it’s going to be hard to fade this game completely.
The Rockets are giving up 104 points per game this season so if the Lakers can keep it close, there should be some viable fantasy options. That said, I think I will be targeting some of the cheaper players in this game and spending on the big players in the other games.
Players to Target
- Steve Blake – Blake is averaging about 30 minutes per game as the starting SG. He will likely be guarding either Harden or Parsons which isn’t good news for him on defense, but we don’t need to worry about his defense. Blake can hit open 3’s and plays enough minutes that he should cover his value.
- Jordan Hill – Hill could get the start at PF tonight, but even if he doesn’t he should see an increase in minutes with the big lineup that the Rockets put out there. Hill has put up nice numbers in limited minutes so if he can get a few extra minutes, he would make a nice sleeper play.
Houston
The Rockets are scoring in bunches once again this season, but the line in this game scares me. Vegas has the Rockets favored by 13 and we’ve seen the Lakers get blown out on more than one occasion this season. I would love to take Dwight Howard against his former team, but I’m just not sure that he is going to get a full compliment of minutes with the potential blowout. I think Horford is the safer play at Center.
Players to Target
- Chandler Parsons – Parsons is a mid-range salary player that is playable in blowout situations because even if they get up big, he may have already done enough to be worth taking. I don’t think that I will be spending on Dwight or Harden, so Parsons is a good hedge.
- Omri Casspi – There is a lot to like about Casspi tonight. He’s averaged over 30 FP’s over his last two games and a blowout would likely help his cause because he would get some garbage time minutes in addition to his regular rotation minutes.