NBA Grind Down: Thursday, October 29th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Memphis at Indiana – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -3, 188.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-Miles-George-Mahinmi
| Memphis | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188.5 |  | Vegas Total | 188.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.8 | Team Proj. | 92.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.48 | Team Pace | 99.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | C.J. Miles | Paul George | Ian Mahinmi | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 11 | Opp. Season | 6 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 2 | |
Memphis
If you are new to daily fantasy basketball, then completely throw out last night’s Grizzlies game, as that was an outlier. The Grizzlies are typically a dominant defense that likes to slow the pace of the game down. A 30-point loss at home may not happen again this season. For fantasy purposes, we should treat tonight’s game as if it were there season opener. We shouldn’t rely on anything that happened in the Grizzlies game last night.
Indiana Pacers Defense (2015-16)
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (18 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.1 (13 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -10.0 (26 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 194.5 (12 of 32)
I’ve already made the switch to this season’s statistics, so keep in mind that the sample size is still extremely small. The Pacers gave up 106 points last night, but that was in a difficult matchup against the Raptors in Toronto. Under coach Frank Vogel, the Pacers have always had a top ten defense in the NBA and we can expect that to be the case again this season. The Grizzlies are small favorites in this matchup, but they have a low implied team total of of 95.75 points, which is the second lowest on the schedule tonight.
Even though Roy Hibbert is now in Los Angeles, the Pacers should still be a good defensive team against centers. Zach Randolph will match up against the thinner Paul George, who doesn’t have a ton of experience defending power forwards. Look for the Grizzlies to go to him early and often. Pacers’ center Ian Mahinmi is not in the NBA for the production that he provides on the offensive side of the floor. While he provides a tough matchup for most, Marc Gasol is about as matchup-proof of a player as you will find. Mike Conley also deserves consideration here, but George Hill is a very athletic point guard that makes it tough on his opponents. If you are looking for value at SG/SF, Courtney Lee, Jeff Green, Tony Allen, and Matt Barnes are all priced affordably. The problem is that they all cut into each other’s fantasy production.
Elite Plays
Zach Randolph
FD: $7,200 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 23.3
FP/Game: 21.6 — FP/Min: 0.70
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol
FD: $8,400 — DK: $8,300
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 21.5
FP/Game: 17.0 — FP/Min: 0.57
Mike Conley
FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 16.7
FP/Game: 20.8 — FP/Min: 0.72
Indiana
Pacers’ fans have to be thrilled to see Paul George back in the lineup. He is a dynamic player that can dominate on both ends of the floor. While the Pacers did fall short in last night’s game against the Raptors, they played well in a tough environment. The Pacers have their home opener tonight against the Grizzlies, who also started their season with a loss.
Memphis Grizzlies Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (18 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (21 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -14.0 (28 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 213.3 (25 of 32)
Once again, we can’t rely on anything that happened in the Grizzlies’ game last night. They were dominated by the Cavaliers from start to finish, so it’s hard to use any of their statistics in our analysis. The Grizzlies boasted a top five defense last season and with Memphis bringing back almost the exact same team, we can expect that to be the case again this year. The Pacers have the lowest implied team total on the board at only 92.75 points.
While all signs point to a complete fade of the Pacers, that’s hard to do with only three games on the schedule. While their implied team total is low, the game is expected to stay close throughout. Paul George had a nice all-around game last night, finishing with 17 points, 12 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals. He is expected to play around 36 minutes tonight and while the matchup is tough, he seems a bit underpriced to open the season. George Hill is a decent secondary play, as he does have a nice size advantage over Mike Conley. The Pacers’ wing players – Monta Ellis and C.J. Miles – will have to deal with four very good wing defenders (Lee, Green, Allen, Barnes) on the Grizzlies.
Elite Plays
Paul George
FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,200
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 27.8
FP/Game: 46.4 — FP/Min: 1.25
Secondary Plays
Monta Ellis
FD: $6,800 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 21.6
FP/Game: 20.0 — FP/Min: 0.69
George Hill
FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 15.0
FP/Game: 29.6 — FP/Min: 0.78
Atlanta at New York – 08:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -3.5, 197 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Vujacic-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
| Atlanta | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.3 | 96.8 | Team Proj. | 93.3 | ||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.75 | Team Pace | 101.53 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Sasha Vujacic | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 24 | Opp. Season | 20 | 16 | 20 | 12 | 5 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks were one of the best home teams in the NBA last season, which is why it was so surprising to see them lose to the Pistons on opening night. The Hawks return most of their starting lineup, but they may feel the void left by DeMarre Carroll for a while. The Hawks will look to right the ship tonight against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden.
New York Knicks Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.0 (12 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.4 (14 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 2.0 (14 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 182.9 (9 of 32)
The Knicks have a much different roster this season, including a healthy Carmelo Anthony. Moving forward, they probably won’t be as bad as they were on defense last season or as good as they were in last night’s win against the Bucks. This is an exploitable matchup for the Hawks, as they have the second highest implied team total – 101.5 points – on the board tonight.
For fantasy purposes, the Hawks are one of the top teams to target tonight. Not only do they find themselves in a favorable matchup, but they will want to right the ship quickly. All five starters are in play here. While the Hawks are one of the most balanced teams in the NBA, there should be enough production for everyone at the dinner table to eat.
Al Horford may have the toughest matchup of the five starters, as Robin Lopez has always been a good low post defender. Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague are both elite plays here, as they will match up against the likes of Kristaps Porzingis and Jose Calderon. Kyle Korver deserves consideration, but he relies on points scored for the majority of his fantasy production. When his shot isn’t falling, there is little else that he offers production-wise. I prefer Dennis Schroder over Korver, even though he is coming off the bench. Kent Bazemore made a lot of fantasy enemies with his performance on opening night, but if he draws another start, I’m going back to the well.
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap
FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 23.8
FP/Game: 31.1 — FP/Min: 0.86
Jeff Teague
FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 34.1
FP/Game: 21.4 — FP/Min: 0.67
Kent Bazemore
FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,300
Min/Game: 21.0 — Usage: 15.9
FP/Game: 5.9 — FP/Min: 0.28
Secondary Plays
Al Horford
FD: $7,300 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 20.6
FP/Game: 34.8 — FP/Min: 1.16
Kyle Korver
FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 15.9
FP/Game: 11.9 — FP/Min: 0.41
Dennis Schroder
FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 29.0
FP/Game: 32.6 — FP/Min: 1.30
New York
The Knicks surprised everyone last night with a 25-point victory over the Bucks in Milwaukee. If you listen very carefully, you can still hear Spike Lee celebrating. Knicks’ fans need to be realistic though, as this was just one game. They should certainly be able to improve on their record from a season ago, but they are still a fringe playoff team in the East.
Atlanta Hawks Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (18 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (20 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -19.0 (30 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 212.3 (24 of 32)
The Hawks did not look great defensively against the Pistons on opening night, but like the Grizzlies, they should still be a top ten defense over the course of the season. Their biggest weakness last year was rebounding differential, while they were ranked near the top of the league in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Knicks have an implied team total of 97.5 points tonight, which is the fourth highest of the six teams on the schedule.
Last night’s win over the Bucks caused more confusion than clarity, as the bench clearly outplayed the starters. Carmelo Anthony led the team with 29 minutes, although he was only able to score 11 points on 4-of-16 shooting. This could be another inefficient outing from Anthony, although we can expect a better fantasy outing than the one he had last night. Sasha Vujacic played well in his first game back in the NBA. He finished with 11 points, six rebounds, three assists, and four steals in a spot start. If he draws the start again tonight, he deserves consideration as an elite play. The minutes picture is muddy for the rest of the Knicks. Kristaps Porzingis may be worth a look in tournaments, but I’m taking a wait and see approach with the rookie.
Elite Plays
Sasha Vujacic
FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 9.7
FP/Game: 30.7 — FP/Min: 1.06
Secondary Plays
Carmelo Anthony
FD: $9,400 — DK: $8,700
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 25.1
FP/Game: 27.7 — FP/Min: 0.96
Kristaps Porzingis
FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 24.0 — Usage: 29.4
FP/Game: 25.5 — FP/Min: 1.06
Dallas at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -10.5, 211.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Williams-Felton-Matthews-Nowitzki-Pachulia
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Stephenson-Griffin-Jordan
| Dallas | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 111.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.19 | Team Pace | 105.02 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Raymond Felton | Wesley Matthews | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Lance Stephenson | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 18 | 29 | 18 | 14 | Opp. Season | 17 | 17 | 25 | 17 | 20 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks looked good in their opener against the Suns. They beat Phoenix by 16 points on their home floor. The Mavericks are still riddled with injuries, though. Chandler Parsons has already been ruled out for tonight’s game, Deron Williams is listed as questionable, and Wesley Matthews is on a minute restriction.
Los Angeles Clippers Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (15 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.4 (12 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -7.0 (23 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 204.8 (21 of 32)
The Mavericks draw a decent matchup tonight against the Clippers in what is expected to be the fastest-paced game of the evening. The Clippers were a middle of the pack defense last season and given their pace, they will likely be in for a similar fate this season. Dallas has an implied team total of 100.5 points, which is the third highest of the six teams playing tonight. The major concern here is whether or not the Mavericks will be able to keep this game close. They are the largest underdogs on the board.
With Deron Williams questionable and Chandler Parsons out, Raymond Felton should see extended action again tonight. He played 33 minutes against the Suns, finishing with 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists. At his price point, he is one of the better value plays on the board. I will continue to avoid players on minute restrictions, which rules out Williams and Wesley Matthews. Zaza Pachulia is an interesting value play at center. He has been a very productive player when given minutes and he saw 25 minutes of action as the Mavericks’ starting center last night. Finally, we have old man Dirk Nowitzki. His upside is somewhat limited, but he makes a decent cash game option at power forward.
Elite Plays
Raymond Felton
FD: $4,000 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 19.9
FP/Game: 31.8 — FP/Min: 0.96
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki
FD: $6,200 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 21.0 — Usage: 20.8
FP/Game: 30.3 — FP/Min: 1.44
Zaza Pachulia
FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,100
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 23.0
FP/Game: 31.5 — FP/Min: 1.26
J.J. Barea
FD: $4,500 — DK: $3,300
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 27.9
FP/Game: 13.3 — FP/Min: 0.53
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers made quick work of their in-state “rival” last night, beating the Kings 111-104. Tonight they host the Mavericks in their home opener. The Clippers are looking to take that step to the next level this season and they are hinging their bandwagon to Lance Stephenson. Scary, right? We’ve seen both the good and bad that Stephenson can provide a team over the last two seasons.
Dallas Mavericks Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.0 (9 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 89.2 (4 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (19 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 175.1 (6 of 32)
The Clippers draw a favorable matchup against the Mavericks, who were a below average defense last season. The Mavericks did play well last night against the Suns, but it’s hard to see them being a good defensive without Tyson Chandler protecting the rim. The Clippers have an implied team total of 111.0 points, which is easily the highest on the schedule tonight. The one concern here is a potential blowout, but if the Mavericks can keep it close, this game should be a fantasy goldmine.
Blake Griffin and Chris Paul both played well in the opener and both are elite fantasy options again tonight against the Mavericks. Griffin will match up with a much slower Dirk Nowitzki, while Chris Paul should have his way with the likes of Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, and J.J. Barea. DeAndre Jordan is a blocks and rebounds machine. He is the premier play at center tonight if you can afford him. Lance Stephenson offers good value at his price, but he only played 17 minutes last night. J.J. Redick had the highest percentage of his fantasy production from points scored last season (close to 75%), which makes him a low floor/high ceiling play at shooting guard.
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin
FD: $9,900 — DK: $9,500
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 28.5
FP/Game: 46.6 — FP/Min: 1.23
Chris Paul
FD: $9,800 — DK: $9,600
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 21.9
FP/Game: 42.5 — FP/Min: 1.15
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan
FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 13.2
FP/Game: 30.9 — FP/Min: 1.14
J.J. Redick
FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,100
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 20.1
FP/Game: 15.0 — FP/Min: 0.48
Paul Pierce
FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,000
Min/Game: 24.0 — Usage: 20.9
FP/Game: 19.4 — FP/Min: 0.81
Lance Stephenson
FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 19.0 — Usage: 13.0
FP/Game: 13.4 — FP/Min: 0.71