NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, May 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-02 01:57:30

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		215.0					Vegas Total		215.0
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		104.3					Implied Team Total		110.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.2					Pace Projection +/-		0.5
Projected Starters	LeBron James	Kyle Korver	J.R. Smith	Kevin Love	Tristan Thompson		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	3	3	7	21		DvP	22	25	27	16	13
DRPM Rat.	2	22	4	9	21		DRPM Rat.	21	5	27	15	N/A

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers narrowly escaped the clutches of the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs. Most of the statistics show that the Pacers should have won the series, but they couldn’t close the door on LeBron James. That’s a problem that all teams in the Eastern Conference have had over the years, including the Toronto Raptors. This finally feels like the year that a team steps up and beats LeBron, but I’m not going to believe it until I see it happen. Cleveland comes into Game 1 as 6.5-point underdogs with the total set at 215 points. Of the four teams on the schedule tonight, the Cavaliers have the lowest implied total (104.3 points) and the worst projected point differential (-6.7).

It will be interesting to see the Cavaliers’ starting lineup tonight. In Game 7 against the Pacers, they started Tristan Thompson at center, which moved LeBron James into the starting point guard role (he’s basically this every game, no matter who is on the floor). I expect the same starters tonight, although George Hill did play very well in the second half of that game. If Hill draws the start, he becomes an intriguing tournament play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If he comes off the bench, he’s right there with Jordan Clarkson and Rodney Hood as an easy fade in all formats. J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver logged a ton of minutes in the last series. Smith hasn’t been particularly effective in the playoffs this year, but he’s going to remain viable as long as he keeps playing 35 minutes a night. Korver offers more upside than Smith, but he arguably has a lower floor given the volatility in his playing time.

LeBron is the top overall play on the board tonight, especially since Stephen Curry is expected to return to the Warriors’ lineup. He will ultimately cut into the production of Kevin Durant. The issue with James is the price tag. He’s $13,000 on FanDuel and $11,900 on DraftKings. It certainly can be done, but he’s not an auto-play like he was in the last series. If you think the Cavaliers have any shot of being competitive tonight, then you should have interest in James. Kevin Love had one ugly series against the Pacers, but he did average 33 minutes per game. If he can play anything like the regular season Love, he’s a steal at his current price point. In three meetings against the Raptors this season, he averaged 39 fantasy points. Tristan Thompson earned himself more minutes with that monster outing in Game 7 against the Pacers. We all know that LeBron has his guys that he trusts and for some reason, Thompson is one of them. Tyronn Lue said that Thompson will earn more minutes in this series. On FanDuel ($2,000), he’s close to a must-play if he draws another start and I’m willing to pay the slight premium on DraftKings ($4,600) given the fact that he’ll be low owned.

Notable Injuries

None

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -6.7 (4 of 4)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson (if he starts)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, George Hill (if he starts)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors had one of the best benches in the NBA during the regular season. We didn’t see a lot of that until the final game of the series against the Wizards. Fred VanVleet and Delon Wright are one of the best backcourt duos off the bench and they carried the Raptors to a win in Game 6. They’ll need everyone on their roster to play well if they finally want to beat the Cavaliers. It’s clear that Toronto has more talent than Cleveland, but there seems to be a mental block that they haven’t been able to get past. Perhaps this is finally the year. They open Game 1 as 6.5-point favorite with an implied total of 110.8 points, which is the second highest of the slate.

Kyle Lowry averaged 38 fantasy points in the first round against the Wizards. He draws a much more exploitable matchup against Cleveland, especially if they decide to start Kyle Korver and J.R. Smith in the backcourt. Smith is a decent defender, but he can’t guard both Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Lowry wasn’t great in his two games against Cleveland earlier this season, but I’m not overly concerned. He should play minutes in the upper 30s in a game where the Raptors are projected to score 110.8 points. DeRozan is also an elite play tonight and you can pair him with Lowry. I’ve been wrong about a lot this postseason (Terry Rozier last night), but I get the feeling that this will be DeRozan’s coming out party. He’s always been underrated when it comes to the national media, so this is his chance to shine.

It’s always hard to predict how many minutes Fred VanVleet and Delon Wright are going to play. When their bench is firing on all cylinders, both have the potential to play minutes in the low 20s. Of the two, I slightly prefer VanVleet given the savings. During the regular season, they both averaged 19 fantasy points per game, so we might as well take the discount with VanVleet, who is only $2,500 on FanDuel. I don’t have much interest in C.J. Miles or OG Anunboy, as I see them losing playing time to VanVleet and Wright in this series. Serge Ibaka must have thought the first round series against the Pacers was only one game long. After Game 1, he basically disappeared. Luckily, they will need his defense against Kevin Love. Target Ibaka now before his price and ownership skyrocket after a solid game tonight. Jonas Valanciunas averaged 34 fantasy points in three games against the Cavaliers earlier this season. He’s an excellent tournament play, but it’s hard to make the case for playing him in cash games on FanDuel with Tristan Thompson being so underpriced.

Notable Injuries

None

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 (2 of 4)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP), Fred VanVleet (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (Cash), Fred VanVleet (DK), Delon Wright

New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Golden State Warriors
			Vegas Total		226.0					Vegas Total		226.0
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		107.5					Implied Team Total		118.5
			Pace Projection +/-		2.2					Pace Projection +/-		3.1
Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Nikola Mirotic	Anthony Davis		Projected Starters	Stephen Curry	Klay Thompson	Kevin Durant	Draymond Green	JaVale McGee
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	11	21	11	26	6		DvP	17	26	26	17	19
DRPM Rat.	17	11	24	3	25		DRPM Rat.	16	1	28	11	1

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans were no match for the Warriors in Game 1. They were down 29 points by the end of the third quarter. The bad news is that the Warriors are going to be even better now that Stephen Curry is back in the lineup. This is a tough spot for the Pelicans and they come into the game as 11-point underdogs. We can’t really afford to fade games when there are only two to choose from, but this one certainly has the potential to turn into another blowout. With that said, the Pelicans do have a high implied total of 107.5 points, so there is certainly upside if they can keep this game within striking distance.

Playoff Rajon Rondo is really good at basketball. When he’s locked in, he’s a beast on both ends of the floor. In five games so far this postseason, he has averaged 35 minutes and 40 fantasy points. With the Cavaliers potentially rolling out a lineup without a point guard, our options at the position are basically down to Rondo, Kyle Lowry, and Stephen Curry. Rondo has similar upside to the other two and he is considerably cheaper. The only concern is that his minutes get limited in a blowout, but that’s hard to factor in when there are only two games on the schedule. Jrue Holiday is viable in all formats tonight, although I do prefer DeMar DeRozan if we throw out their salaries. That doesn’t mean that we can’t play both.

E’Twaun Moore only logged 21 minutes in Game 1, but he sat the last nine minutes of the second quarter due to foul trouble and he sat the entire fourth quarter thanks to the blowout. Game log watchers are going to gravitate to Ian Clark without realizing why he played so many minutes in Game 1. I will gladly play Moore over Clark, especially if he comes at lower ownership. Nikola Mirotic has been terrific over the last six weeks of play. They’ll need a big game from him to stay competitive. While his range of outcomes is broad, he makes an excellent tournament play. Anthony Davis arguably has more upside than LeBron James, but doesn’t have as high of a floor. In a perfect world, we would be able to play both. The way roster construction is shaking out, I prefer James on FanDuel (with Thompson at center) and Davis on DraftKings (where he’s considerably cheaper).

Notable Injuries

None

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -4.2 (3 of 4)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 12.5 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis (DK), E’Twaun Moore (GPP), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (FD), E’Twaun Moore (Cash), Nikola Mirotic (Cash)

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors picked up an easy win in Game 1 and now get their superstar point guard back. Stephen Curry is not expected to be on a minute restriction of any kind, but that doesn’t mean that he’s guaranteed to play 35 minutes. It’s always hard to predict what’s going to happen in these situations, but I’ll take the conservative route and project him for around 30 minutes. This Warriors’ offense should be firing on all cylinders against one of the worst defensive teams in basketball. They come into the game with an implied total of 118.5 points, which is the highest on the board and five points above their season average.

It’s not a question of whether or not the Warriors will score points, it’s where the production is going to come from. Even with a 30 minute projection, Curry grades out as an elite play in all formats. Now, models don’t take into account rust, but we get a nice discount from what we usually have to pay for Curry. Klay Thompson production doesn’t change much with or without Curry on the floor, so if you liked him in Game 1, you should like him again in Game 2. Kevin Durant receives the biggest hit with Curry back. There is still enough fantasy production to go around in this matchup though, and who knows how aggressive Curry will be in his first game back. I’m still treating Durant as an elite play in all formats.

Nick Young and Andre Iguodala started Game 1, but at least one of them will head to bench with Curry playing. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the Warriors went with a bigger starting lineup and decided to bring Iguodala off the bench, which is a role he is very accustomed to. Iguodala isn’t a bad play by any means, but I’d rather take a shot on E’Twaun Moore at a similar price point. Draymond Green had over 50 fantasy points in the first half against the Pelicans in Game 1. It was an incredible performance. He’s viable once again, although the offense won’t run through him as often now that Curry is back. Kevon Looney should see minutes in the low 20s and grades out as one of the top value plays of the slate. David West is also worth a look on DraftKings ($3,500). While he won’t play more than 14-16 minutes, he’s an elite per-minute producer (1.24 FP/min).

Notable Injuries

Stephen Curry (Active)

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 113.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 118.5 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 5.0 (1 of 4)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, David West (DK)

Secondary Plays – David West (FD), Andre Iguodala