NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 10th - Page Two
Charlotte at Minnesota – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -1.5, 200 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Hairston-Batum-Williams-Jefferson
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Wiggins-Prince-Garnett-Towns
| Charlotte | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.0 |  | Vegas Total | 200.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.80 | Team Pace | 101.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | P.J. Hairston | Nicolas Batum | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | Proj. Starter | Ricky Rubio | Andrew Wiggins | Tayshaun Prince | Kevin Garnett | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 13 | 3 | 19 | 5 | Opp. Season | 11 | 17 | 13 | 26 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 27 | 10 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets are looking for their third win of the season tonight, as they take on the Timberwolves in Minnesota. The Hornets are 1.5-point favorites tonight with the total for the game set at 200 points.
- Minnesota Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.0 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.2 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 188.4 (6 of 30)
The Timberwolves have been stout defensively this season, ranking 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hornets have an implied team total of 100.8 points, which is right around the average of the 14 teams in play tonight.
The Hornets have been a tough team to target this season. They place at a slow pace and they have a balanced offense now that Nicolas Batum is in the mix. Even though they will be facing a tired Timberwolves’ team that is playing in the second half of a back-to-back, there aren’t any players that stand out as elite options here.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson
FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 26.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 22.4
FP/Game: 29.4 — FP/Min.: 1.11
Kemba Walker
FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 30.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 22.3
FP/Game: 30.8 — FP/Min.: 1.00
Nicolas Batum
FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 32.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 16.8
FP/Game: 27.9 — FP/Min.: 0.85
Marvin Williams
FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 31.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 13.2
FP/Game: 25.9 — FP/Min.: 0.81
Minnesota
The Timberwolves almost blew a 30-point halftime lead last night against the Hawks. Atlanta took the lead by one with a couple of minutes to play, but the Wolves finished strong and ended up walking away with the win. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, but they are such a young team, that I’m really only concerned with Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince, who aren’t viable fantasy options anyway.
- Charlotte Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.6 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.8 (15 of 30)
The Hornets present a mediocre matchup for the Timberwolves. On the season, Charlotte is ranked 17th in points allowed per game, seventh in rebounding differential, and 15th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Wolves may not have the highest implied team total, but this game is expected to stay close throughout.
Andrew Wiggins early season slump is officially over, as he has scored at least 39 fantasy points in back-to-back games. The Hornets will likely stick Nicolas Batum on him, but Wiggins still deserves consideration tonight at home. Ricky Rubio makes a nice tournament play tonight. He is still a little too up and down for cash games. I’d much rather target Isaiah Thomas at a similar price point. Karl-Anthony Towns and Nemanja Bjelica round out the fantasy options from the Timberwolves.
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins
FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 32.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 26.1
FP/Game: 22.9 — FP/Min.: 0.71
Secondary Plays
Ricky Rubio
FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 30.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.8
FP/Game: 35.8 — FP/Min.: 1.16
Karl-Anthony Towns
FD: $6,700 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 28.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.8
FP/Game: 33.3 — FP/Min.: 1.16
Nemanja Bjelica
FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 28.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 10.1
FP/Game: 22.1 — FP/Min.: 0.76
Dallas at New Orleans – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -2, 211 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Williams-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Babbitt-Davis-Ajinca
| Dallas | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.0 |  | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.20 | Team Pace | 103.20 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Deron Williams | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | Proj. Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Luke Babbitt | Anthony Davis | Alexis Ajinca | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 26 | 10 | 17 | 27 | Opp. Season | 12 | 11 | 2 | 29 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 26 | 11 | 22 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 25 | 18 | |
Dallas
The final game of the evening is between the Mavericks and Pelicans. Dallas is 3-3 to start the season, but they are just now starting to get healthy. Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews have both been cleared to play around 30 minutes per game, but Chandler Parsons is still stuck on a 15 minute per game basis.
- New Orleans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 114.7 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.9 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -7.2 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 218.7 (30 of 30)
It doesn’t even seem possible that a team with Anthony Davis on it could be ranked dead last in the NBA in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Mind blown. The Pelicans have been the worst defense in the NBA so far this season and the Mavericks have a high implied team total of 104.5 points tonight, which is the fifth highest on the board.
The biggest problem with the Mavericks this season has been their deep rotation. With so many players being limited by either injuries (Wesley Matthews, Deron Williams, and Chandler Parsons) or old age (Dirk Nowitzki), it’s hard to rely on any one player, regardless of the matchup. The Mavericks are going to score a lot of points tonight, but that production is going to be spread around. For that reason, I have a hard time recommending any of their players as elite options tonight.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki
FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.5
FP/Game: 29.9 — FP/Min.: 1.07
Dwight Powell
FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 22.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.8
FP/Game: 24.8 — FP/Min.: 1.09
Wesley Matthews (DraftKings-specific)
FD: $5,300 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 27.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 15.3
FP/Game: 15.1 — FP/Min.: 0.56
New Orleans
The Pelicans are still looking for their first win of the season. They were hoping to take that next step this season and make it into the playoffs, but they will need to right the ship quickly for that to happen. The Pelicans are listed as 2-point favorites tonight against the Mavericks at home.
- Dallas Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.2 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.2 (13 of 30)
The Mavericks haven’t been bad on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked 17th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Despite the decent numbers, Vegas doesn’t seem to be buying in on their defense. The Pelicans have an implied team total of 106.5 points, which is the third highest on the board tonight.
Anthony Davis has really only had one great fantasy outing this season, but it was a good one, as he put up 73 fantasy points against the Hawks. Many people may try to tell you that you should avoid him tonight because Dirk Nowitzki is going to pull him away from the basket, but don’t let them fool you. Power forwards have had great success against the Mavericks this season and none are near as talented as Davis. He remains the top fantasy option on the board tonight. Ish Smith will go back to a reserve role tonight, with Jrue Holiday returning to the starting lineup. Both players can be avoided, as they are splitting point guard duties. Eric Gordon is a borderline elite play, although his matchup against Wesley Matthews isn’t great.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis
FD: $10,800 — DK: $10,700
Min/Game: 38.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 23.6
FP/Game: 45.4 — FP/Min.: 1.19
Secondary Plays
Ryan Anderson
FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 31.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.9
FP/Game: 27.3 — FP/Min.: 0.87
Eric Gordon
FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 36.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.7
FP/Game: 26.4 — FP/Min.: 0.73