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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-12 03:34:50

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Oklahoma City at Washington – 7:00 PM

Oklahoma City Washington
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 219.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 219.0
Vegas Sprd -5.0 Vegas Sprd 5.0
Team Proj. 112.0 Team Proj. 107.0
Team Pace 102.00 Team Pace 104.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Kris Humphries Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 10 25 30 21 16 Opp. Season 7 28 18 18 7
Opp. Last 7 13 22 30 18 28 Opp. Last 7 5 30 3 10 3

Oklahoma City

The Thunder are 4-3 to start the season, but it hasn’t been from a lack of offense. They are averaging over 113 points per game, which is second only to the Warriors. Tonight’s game against the Wizards may be the fastest-paced game on the schedule tonight. Both teams have averaged at least 102 possessions per game this season.

The Wizards were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last season, but so far, that hasn’t been the case this year. Through their first six games, they are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Thunder are 5-point favorites with an implied team total of 112 points, which is easily the highest team total on the board tonight.

Russell Westbrook has been dominant this season, averaging over 50 fantasy points in only 36 minutes per game. He has an adjusted usage rate of 29.8 and assuming tonight’s game stays close, he should see around 38 minutes of playing time. If Anthony Davis wasn’t playing tonight, Westbrook would be the top fantasy option at any position. Kevin Durant also deserves consideration as an elite play. He is still too cheap across the industry, especially on DraftKings – $9,700. Durant seems to be getting more comfortable with each and every game and he gets to play in front of his hometown tonight. There has been buzz that Durant may sign with the Wizards in the offseason and my guess is that he’ll receive a very warm welcoming from Wizards’ fans tonight.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $10,900 — DK: $10,800
Min/Game: 35.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 29.8
FP/Game: 50.7 — FP/Min.: 1.42

Kevin Durant

FD: $10,400 — DK: $9,700
Min/Game: 37.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 26.2
FP/Game: 44.9 — FP/Min.: 1.20

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 34.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 14.4
FP/Game: 28.8 — FP/Min.: 0.84

Washington

The Wizards are only 3-3 to start the season, but there is no reason for alarm bells to start going off. If you remember, they play in the Eastern Conference where a .500 record will get you in the playoffs on a yearly basis. The Wizards are 5-point underdogs tonight against the Thunder in a game that features a high total of 219 points.

The Thunder are the best rebounding team in the NBA, but that’s about the only thing that they do well on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, Oklahoma City is ranked 18th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Wizards have an implied team total of 107 points, which is the second highest on the schedule tonight.

The Thunder have been efficient at defending two positions this season – point guard and center. While Steven Adams has always been a good defender, opposing point guards have had a lot of success against the Thunder in years past. I’m going to trust the larger sample size of the last few seasons. That means that John Wall is in play tonight at home. Wall is a multi-dimensional player with a high usage rate. He also has great home splits throughout his career. Bradley Beal (GTD) is one of the top shooting guard options in tonight’s slate. Andre Roberson has been far from a shutdown defender this season, as the Thunder have allowed the third-most fantasy points to shooting guards.

Elite Plays

John Wall

FD: $9,500 — DK: $9,000
Min/Game: 34.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 23.5
FP/Game: 40.8 — FP/Min.: 1.17

Brad Beal

FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 34.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 22.1
FP/Game: 31.4 — FP/Min.: 0.90

Otto Porter

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,100
Min/Game: 33.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 12.7
FP/Game: 24.2 — FP/Min.: 0.71

Secondary Plays

Utah at Cleveland – 7:00 PM

Utah Cleveland
utahnba Vegas Total 184.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 184.0
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 89.0 Team Proj. 95.0
Team Pace 94.10 Team Pace 97.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Mo Williams Richard Jefferson LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 3 12 20 5 4 Opp. Season 1 4 6 1 2
Opp. Last 7 1 13 27 15 2 Opp. Last 7 7 5 18 3 5

Utah

The Jazz have looked great at times and very beatable at other times this season. Tonight they get their toughest test to date, as they head to Cleveland to take on the defending Eastern Conference champions. Utah is getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers, as they are only 6-point underdogs in one of the toughest places to play in the NBA.

This game should be a battle between two very good defenses. The Cavaliers are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Jazz have an implied team total of 89 points tonight, which is by far the lowest on the board.

If you look at the Defense vs. Position charts above, you will see a lot of red. We’ve color coded for you to make it easy on the eyes. Red means stop. Stop, I say! Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood, and Alec Burks have all been productive here in the early part of the season, but with such a low team total, they are secondary plays at best tonight against the Cavaliers.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gobert

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 33.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 10.7
FP/Game: 32.0 — FP/Min.: 0.96

Derrick Favors

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 29.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.1
FP/Game: 32.2 — FP/Min.: 1.11

Alec Burks

FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 22.3
FP/Game: 22.6 — FP/Min.: 0.84

Rodney Hood

FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 26.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.7
FP/Game: 21.0 — FP/Min.: 0.80

Cleveland

The Cavaliers are 6-1 to open the season, including a perfect 4-0 record at home. They will look to stay unbeaten at the Quicken Loans Arena, as they host the visiting Jazz. While I expect this game to stay relatively close, fantasy production will be hard to come by with the game’s total set at only 184 points.

The Cavaliers draw the worst fantasy matchup on the board tonight. The Jazz are ranked first in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Utah is also the slowest-paced team in the NBA. So, not only do they play great defense, but they also limit their opponent’s possessions. The Cavaliers have an implied team total of 95 points tonight, which is seven points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

Whenever I see the Jazz on the schedule, my mind immediately tells me to fade their opponent completely. This is especially true when we have a decent sized slate, as their are always better matchups than the worst matchup in the NBA. Feel free to take a chance on LeBron James, Kevin Love, or Mo Williams, but I’m trusting the numbers here. The Jazz are ranked sixth or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

L.A. Lakers at Miami – 7:30 PM

L.A. Lakers Miami
lalakersnba Vegas Total 200.0 miaminba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 94.5 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 103.70 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 5 1 19 9 15 Opp. Season 26 10 25 28 23
Opp. Last 7 14 1 22 4 14 Opp. Last 7 19 20 24 29 11

L.A. Lakers

The Lakers have not played well this season, but at least they have one more win than the Pelicans, Nets, and Sixers combined. Unfortunately, that only means that they have one win. The Lakers head to Miami to take on the Heat tonight in what will be a pace-down game for Los Angeles. The Heat have averaged eight less possessions per game than the Lakers have this season.

There are quite a few difficult matchups on the schedule tonight and this is one of them. On the season, the Heat are ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Lakers are an inefficient offense to begin with and they will have a tough time scoring tonight against Miami.

The backcourt situation for the Lakers is tough to predict right now. We have two young volatile guards in D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson. With matchups against Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade, they are easy fades tonight at the loaded point guard position. Kobe Bryant is shooting a career-low 32% from the field and can also be avoided. The only player that really stands out here is Julius Randle. The matchup isn’t ideal, but we’ve seen the type of upside that he has.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Julius Randle

FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.1
FP/Game: 27.5 — FP/Min.: 0.95

Miami

The Heat are 4-3 to start the season. They have struggled to score offensively, but they are holding their opponents 90.4 points per game, which allows them to keep games close. Their offensive woes should end tonight against the Lakers, who have arguably the worst defense in the entire NBA.

The Lakers have exactly what we are looking for in a matchup. They play at a fast pace and they are one of the most inefficient defenses in the league. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked 28th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Heat are projected to score 105.5 points tonight, which is nine points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

The Heat are typically a tough team to predict on a nightly basis, thanks to how talented their starting lineup is. However, against the Lakers, there is room for all five starters to play well. Goran Dragic isn’t the safest cash game option, but he is worth a look in tournaments at his discounted price. Dwyane Wade may not play more than 30 minutes, but he should be incredibly efficient while on the floor against this defense. Luol Deng has a free pass to the basket anytime he wants it with Kobe Bryant defending him. Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside should be able to dominate the glass and the paint. Whiteside is my favorite center on the board tonight.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 29.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 16.2
FP/Game: 35.2 — FP/Min.: 1.19

Chris Bosh

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 31.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.6
FP/Game: 34.3 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Dwyane Wade

FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 29.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 27.5
FP/Game: 29.8 — FP/Min.: 1.02

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 30.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 15.6
FP/Game: 20.5 — FP/Min.: 0.68

Luol Deng

FD: $5,100 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 27.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 15.1
FP/Game: 16.9 — FP/Min.: 0.61

New York at Toronto – 7:30 PM

New York Toronto
newyorknba Vegas Total 195.5 torontonba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 93.8 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 100.00 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 4 19 11 14 20 Opp. Season 9 8 16 16 18
Opp. Last 7 4 8 17 16 22 Opp. Last 7 3 19 15 14 15

New York

The Knicks are only 3-4 to start the season, but they have had a fairly difficult opening schedule and they have been competitive against some very talented ball clubs. They have another tough test ahead of them tonight, as they square off against the Raptors in Toronto.

The Raptors have really improved their play on the defensive end of the floor this season. A large part of that is thanks to DeMarre Carroll, who has brought a defensive attitude with him wherever he goes. On the season, Toronto is ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Knicks have an implied team total of 93.8 points, which is the second lowest on the board tonight.

Carmelo Anthony has made a living being able to make tough shots. While I’m not worried about his shot volume tonight, I am worried about his efficiency on the offensive end of the floor. With a matchup against DeMarre Carroll (GTD), Anthony can be avoided in cash games. Kristaps Porzingis is a borderline elite play tonight. He has played well in tough matchups this season and he is still affordable across the industry.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 24.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.1
FP/Game: 27.2 — FP/Min.: 1.12

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

FD: $9,400 — DK: $8,500
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 27.0
FP/Game: 36.6 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Toronto

The Raptors have lost their last two games, after winning their first five of the season. They will look to get back on track tonight against the Knicks at home. The Raptors are large favorites tonight at home.

The Knicks present an average matchup for fantasy purposes. On the season, they are ranked between tenth and 15th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Raptors have an implied team total of 101.8 points, which is right around the median for the 14 teams in play tonight.

The Knicks have been tough on opposing backcourts this season, but Jose Calderon and Sasha Vujacic are far from being imposing forces on the defensive end of the floor. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are both worth a look in their favorable individual matchups. DeMarre Carroll is listed as a game-time decision tonight. If he is unable to suit up, James Johnson could make for a great value play if he draws the start at small forward.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 34.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.8
FP/Game: 35.9 — FP/Min.: 1.04

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 23.3
FP/Game: 32.6 — FP/Min.: 0.91

James Johnson

FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,100
Min/Game: 9.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 8.3
FP/Game: 5.0 — FP/Min.: 0.52

Boston at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM

Boston Milwaukee
bostonnba Vegas Total 201.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 105.30 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Jared Sullinger Amir Johnson Proj. Starter Tyler Ennis Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 17 16 8 24 9 Opp. Season 6 30 21 15 12
Opp. Last 7 6 2 8 21 7 Opp. Last 7 18 12 25 5 24

Boston

The Celtics are only 2-3 to start the season, but they do have a positive point differential of 3.4 per game. Tonight’s game against the Bucks may be a battle between two teams that sneak into the Eastern Conference playoffs this season. Vegas is expecting a close game tonight, as the Celtics are listed as 2-point favorites.

The Bucks were bad defensively in their first few games of the season, but they are slowly improving. They are now ranked 16th in points allowed per game and 11th in fantasy points allowed per game. I expect both of those ranks to improve as the season progresses. While this may not be the best matchup on the board, the Celtics are still projected to score 101.8 points tonight.

Marcus Smart has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means we can target my DFS man crush, Isaiah Thomas, for at least one more night. In his last two starts with Smart out, Thomas has scored 38 and 30 fantasy points. The second game could have been much better if the Celtics didn’t blow out the Wizards. Jae Crowder is the only other fantasy option of note here. His minutes are erratic, but he has managed to score 25.7 fantasy points per game this season.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas

FD: $7,300 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 29.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 29.5
FP/Game: 34.4 — FP/Min.: 1.17

Secondary Plays

Jae Crowder

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 29.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 13.4
FP/Game: 25.7 — FP/Min.: 0.86

Milwaukee

The Bucks are back to their winning ways. After losing each of their first three games, they have reeled off four straight victories. It’s a bit surprising to see that Vegas has them as underdogs tonight at home against the Celtics, but it should be a close, high-scoring game, which is what we love to see for daily fantasy basketball.

The Celtics play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA this season, yet they have held their opponents to the 12th fewest points per game. That is largely thanks to the fact that they are ranked sixth in defenisve efficiency. While the Bucks’ matchup isn’t ideal, this will be a pace-up game for Milwaukee. Their implied team total is set at a respectable 99.8 points tonight.

Michael Carter-Williams has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest against the Celtics. Tyler Ennis, Greivis Vasquez, and Jerryd Bayless will continue to split those minutes. At the moment, it’s best to avoid all three, as no single player has really stepped up in MCW’s absence. Greg Monroe, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Khris Middleton are all in play tonight. Many were worried that John Henson was going to cut into Monroe’s minutes, but he played 38 minutes the other night against the Nets. Antetokounmpo and Middleton are both strong plays on the wing.

Elite Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.3
FP/Game: 32.7 — FP/Min.: 0.88

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe

FD: $8,200 — DK: $8,400
Min/Game: 33.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.8
FP/Game: 36.9 — FP/Min.: 1.11

Khris Middleton

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 35.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.5
FP/Game: 24.3 — FP/Min.: 0.68

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious