NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-11-26 19:26:43

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Brooklyn at Toronto

• Vegas Line – Toronto -7, 190 Over/Under
• Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Blatche-Garnett
• Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Gay-Johnson-Valanciunas

Brooklyn

The Nets rank in the bottom 10 in both pace of play (95) and points scored per game (95). They have gotten hit with the injury bug right off the bat and this is certainly not the start that they were hoping for. Deron Williams, Brook Lopez, and Jason Terry have all been ruled out for tonight’s game so continue to use Shaun Livingston and Andray Blatche as above average value plays.

The Raptors are favored by 7 in this game, but this is a game where the starters should all see their usual amount of minutes. I don’t think the Raptors have that killer instinct and I think they let the Nets hand around which is good from a fantasy perspective. Paul Pierce is very cheap across the board and may cover value, but I’m targeting the player that is coming off of his best game of the season.

• Joe Johnson – Johnson has scored over 20 FP’s in 5 straight games and is coming off of a huge performance against the Pistons the other night in which he put up 34 points. I like his matchup against Derozan who is a below average defender. With all of the injuries, he has been their go to guy offensively.

Toronto

The Raptors are also in the bottom half of the league in both pace of play (94) and points scored per game (97). When two slow paced teams get together, it’s usually not projected to be a high scoring game and Vegas has the total of this one set at 190 points which is easily the lowest of the night.

Looking at the Nets DvP rankings, they make my job easy. The Nets defend SF well and struggle against every other position including bottom 6 ranks against PG’s, SG’s, and PF’s. While Rudy Gay has been playing well, it’s not a great matchup and his price is a bit too high to be a viable fantasy option.

• Kyle Lowry – Lowry has really stepped up his game over the last few games and is starting to play like the player that he was in Houston a couple of years ago. He’s filling up every area of the stat sheet which helps his fantasy value because even when his shot is off, he does enough on the floor to make up for it. Very favorable matchup against Livingston and the Nets.

• Jonas Valanciunas – I like Big Val because his price is dirt cheap across the board and he is facing a depleted Nets frontcourt. Val plays big minutes when he faces teams with big frontcourts and the combo of Garnett, Blatche, and Evans fits that bill. He should play 30+ minutes and easily reach value.

L.A.Lakers at Washington

• Vegas Line – Washington -4.5, 197.5 Over/Under
• L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Blake-Meeks-Johnson-Hill-Gasol
• Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Webster-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat

L.A.Lakers

I didn’t think we would see the Lakers as only 5 point underdogs on the road until Kobe came back, but Vegas has faith in them to play well tonight. The Lakers are a very fast paced team that is averaging close to 100 points per game. They have been playing much better lately thanks to Hill, Gasol, and Blake all stepping up their game.

The Wizards are a good matchup to exploit, they have very average rankings against every position so the Lakers’ players are all about value tonight. One thing to note, the Lakers role players play much better at home, but seem to disappear on the road, this hurts the value of Young, Johnson, and Henry.

• Jordan Hill – I also like Pau Gasol in this one, but Hill is a bit cheaper and has just as much upside as Pau. Hill is averaging over 30 FP’s per game in his last 6 games and is seeing big minutes as the starting PF. The Wizards are very average against PF’s and I think Hill excels in his matchup against Nene.

• Steve Blake – It’s hard to believe that Blake is playing at this level. If you take a look at his game logs, they really might surprise you. He has had at least 10 assists in five of his last six games and is averaging well over 30 FP’s per game during that stretch. He is making plays for his teammates and should continue to be taken until he cools off.

Washington

The Wizards are in a great spot tonight. Both of these teams like to push the ball and both of these teams struggle to defend. The Wizards are full of athletic players that should really play well in the open floor if they push the ball upcourt. Trevor Ariza will be back for tonight’s game, but the injury gods giveth and taketh away as Bradley Beal is now out for a couple of weeks. That basically means that Martell Webster will continue to start, only now Ariza will be the other wing.

The Lakers rank in the bottom 5 against every single position except for SF which is really impressive how bad their defense is. Ranking in the bottom 5 against PG’s, SG’s, PF’s, and Centers is hard to do but the Lakers have managed to accomplish it.

• John Wall – I still like Ariza and Webster as value plays, but they aren’t my top plays on the Wizards. Wall takes the crown for best play of the night. Blake is going to have an extremely difficult time staying in front of Wall and look for him to really push the pace and try to get some easy buckets in transition. I think he tops 40 FP’s tonight.

• Marcin Gortat – Gortat and Nene are a nice frontcourt combo, but I’m giving the edge to Gortat in this one. I like his matchup against Pau better than Nene’s matchup against Hill. Gortat is a banger and Pau has never been known as a physical defender. Gortat is coming off of a 40 FP performance and he should play well here.

Orlando at Atlanta

• Vegas Line – Atlanta -7.5, 199 Over/Under
• Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harkless-Vucevic
• Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford

Orlando

The Magic are in the middle of the pack in both pace of play (98) and points scored per game (98). They are a very young team that doesn’t have much hope of making a playoff run, but they have been competitive and haven’t been in as nearly as many blowouts as some of the other bad teams around the league. The most interesting play tonight has to be Victor Oladipo, he has great upside thanks to his ability to gets steals on defense, but his offensive game has been extremely inconsistent.

The Hawks three positions that they give up the most FP’s to are SG, SF, and Center. That means you should be targeting Oladipo, Afflalo, and Vucevic. However, Afflalo’s price has really taken a big spike upwards and he’s out-priced himself in my eyes.

• Nikola Vucevic – Vucey struggled against the Hawks in their first meeting, but I’m expecting him to have a much better performance this time around. Even though Tobias Harris and Glen Davis are back, they are going to take over the PF minutes more than Vucey’s minutes.

• Victor Oladipo – Like I mentioned above, his offensive game has been very up and down this season, but his price is pretty low across the board and his upside is certainly there. He can force turnovers and get some easy buckets. If you are willing to take a risk, he could pay off big time.

Atlanta

The Hawks are playing at an average pace but are managing to score over 100 points per game. The big story here is that Kyle Korver is only two games away from breaking the all-time record for most consecutive games with at least one 3-pointer made. The Hawks are finally fully healthy and should play well in this matchup.

The Magic have really only defended one position well this season and that has been the Center position. I don’t think you can rule out Al Horford though, he’s been playing great this season and scored over 40 FP’s in their first matchup.

• Jeff Teague – I really like the matchup for Teague tonight against Jameer and the Magic. The Magic rank 16th at defending PG’s and Teague is playing at an All-Star level right now. He’s a threat to score over 30 FP’s every night and I think he reaches that mark tonight.

Golden State at New Orleans

• Vegas Line – Golden State -2.5, 204.5 Over/Under
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Lee-Speights
• New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Smith

Golden State

The Warriors will be without Andrew Bogut tonight who is suspended for his little brawl with the Blazers the other night. It sounds like Jermaine O’Neal will get the start if he is healthy enough to play, but he’s listed as a game-time decision so he’s probably too risky to trust on sites that lock their lineups. I think Marreese Speights is the better play. He’s guaranteed to play and should see a nice spike in minutes whether he starts or not.

The Warriors will also be without Andre Iguodala so look for Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes to pick up the slack there. The Pelicans have been very average defensively this season and there are a few solid options on the Warriors tonight.

• David Lee – With Bogut suspended, Lee should see a boost in both minutes and production. Lee should be able to pick up a couple of extra rebounds and may end up playing some Center tonight if the Warriors decide to play small ball. Love the matchup and think he is a safe play with the potential to have a big game.

• Klay Thompson – I also like Barnes, but Klay will be matched up with Gordon and that’s a much more favorable matchup than Aminu. Look for Thompson to be very aggressive tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being their leading scorer.

New Orleans

The Pelicans play at a slow pace (96), but they are averaging over 100 points per game. Anthony Davis remains locked in as a top fantasy option and could be worth the price tag tonight. The Warriors are not a good defensive team and this game has the highest over/under of the night.

• Jrue Holiday – The Warriors are one of the worst teams at defending PG’s. Look for Jrue to be aggressive in this one and really look to push the tempo. He has a mid-range price tag and the potential to score as many FP’s as the expensive players.

• Ryan Anderson – Anderson is a very sneaky play tonight. His name hasn’t been mentioned that often since coming back from injury, but he’s seeing close to 30 minutes per game. He has a great matchup, a low price tag, and great upside.