NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 2nd - Page 3
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New Orleans at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -3.5, 209.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Evans-Morrow-Davis-Stiemsma
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Miller-Faried-Mozgov
New Orleans
- Injury Notes: Eric Gordon is doubtful to play tonight.
The Pelicans rotation has been impressively interchangeable all season, with guys stepping in and providing solid production whenever someone misses time. They still lose most of their games, but hey sometimes you have to take the small victories. It looks like the only absence tonight should be Eric Gordon, although HC Monty Williams is never very forthright with injury news until the last possible second so always keep an eye out on that. This game is one of the best to target tonight, with the 3.5 points spread and 209.5 over/under.
- Anthony Davis – The Nuggets are one of the worst interior defensive teams in the NBA. Davis is averaging 24.5 and 12 in two games against them this season. Davis has scored no less than 49 fantasy points in his last 9 games. All of these are reasons why Davis should be almost 100% owned tonight.
- Tyreke Evans – Tyreke has been awful over his last couple of contests, but that’s lead to a slightly deflated price tag on DS at $14K and SS at $12.9K so I think I’d consider him a good candidate for a bounceback game on those spots. On DK, he somehow went up even further and now sits at $8.3K, so that seems like an unreasonable price to pay with Roberts back in the rotation and handling the ball more.
- Austin Rivers – Rivers has been a near fantasy point per minute guy and with Gordon out his minutes have gone up quite a bit. The tempo here will fit Rivers’ style well and I like him as a nice punt GPP play tonight, especially at $3.1K on DK.
Denver
- Injury Notes: Wilson Chandler remains out for the Nuggets. Anthony Randolph is questionable.
Denver has thrown some wild lineups at us this season, but we should have a fairly solid idea of what to expect with Chandler out and the rest of the usual starters being healthy. Quincy Miller, Darrell Arthur and Evan Fournier should all see around 20-22 minutes off the bench (or as a starter in Miller’s case) and Foye, Lawson, Mozgov and Faried will all play over 30 minutes. Faried has by far the juiciest matchup, with NO ranking 25th on the year against PFs and 26th over the last 15 days. I also like Mozgov’s matchup, as New Orleans could definitely put Davis on Faried and leave Mozgov with the slow, and foul-prone Ajinca (or Stiemsma who is essentially the same exact player).
- Kenneth Faried – Faried has been so productive of late, but the 30-34 minute range angers me to no end. The Nuggets have no decent healthy bigs, but Faried still won’t see 38-40 minutes very often. If Randolph sits, you could finally see him play a ton of minutes and that should equal solid production in a juicy matchup tonight.
- Ty Lawson and Randy Foye – I wouldn’t recommend taking both of them, but I like Lawson as one of the top PG plays tonight and Foye as a strong value play out of the Denver backcourt.
- Timofey Mozgov – Need a center at the lower price tier? Look no further than Mozgov tonight. He’s reasonably priced across the board and has pretty decent upside especially in this matchup.
L.A.Clippers at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -3, 214 Over/Under
- L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Dudley-Barnes-Jordan
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
L.A.Clippers
- Injury Notes: Both Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford are doubtful to play on Wednesday.
With two key pieces missing, the Clippers become a much more predictable team for both opposing defenses and for daily fantasy purposes. Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan both get the biggest boosts with Griffin out, and both have seen their production skyrocket since his injury. Collison gets the biggest boost with Crawford out, and he too has been really impressive over the past couple of games. As far as the matchup goes, a lot of people will be drooling at this game (and all the late games tonight) as the over/under is a whopping 214 with a 3 point spread. Gear up for big production in this tilt.
- Chris Paul – His price tag has risen but as long as Griffin remains out, Paul is a premiere play. It will be difficult to get him and Anthony Davis into a lineup together, but my best guess is that those two wind up finishing the night with the highest fantasy totals overall.
- DeAndre Jordan – 47 and 48 FP over his last two games with Griffin down. That right there is enough reason for me to consider Jordan at any price point but add-in a decent matchup against a team he’s averaged 17.7 rebounds per game against this season and I think he’s a lock to reach value.
- Darren Collison – He’s averaging 38 FPPG over his last two games and the Suns are 21st against SGs over the last 15 days. That DvP split is extra significant because that’s the general time frame since Eric Bledsoe returned to the lineup, meaning they have been more vulnerable with him defensively than they were with Gerald Green.
Phoenix
- Injury Notes: No significant injuries at this time.
For Phoenix, it’s a must win game in their playoff push and they catch a break by not having to face Blake Griffin. I also think the move of Barnes to the PF will lend itself nicely to the style of play that Phoenix wants and helps the Morris brothers off the bench to see added minutes against a less physical LAC lineup. Dragic will be in for a tough matchup, with CP3 being one of the best on ball defenders in the NBA, but Bledsoe should be able to get free against Collison as the Clips rank 17th against SGs over the last 15 days.
- Markieff Morris – He’s your GPP play from Phoenix, as he’s now averaging 38 FPPG over his last 2 but always runs the risk of hitting foul trouble and putting up an absolute dud. I’ve wished he was a starter all season, but it just doesn’t look like that will happen so for now continue to target him in tournaments only.
- Eric Bledsoe – His price tag has risen quite a bit in most spots but until his last game he had been extremely consistent, producing around 30-40 FP in nearly every game.
L.A.Lakers at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Bazemore-Gasol-Kaman
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Gay-Evans-Cousins
L.A.Lakers
- Injury Notes: Steve Nash is doubtful to play on Wednesday, since he can’t seem to make it through 20 minutes without getting reinjured. Pau Gasol is out
The Lakers will be without boom boom Pau tonight which means Jordan Hill does an immediate 180 from being a DNP-CD to being a huge piece in the Lakers gameplan. Oh Mike D’Antoni, he’s such a mind boggling idiot. The absence of Pau pretty much helps everyone on the Lakers tonight, as he’s easily their best (and only halfway decent) offensive player. Kaman should see a few added minutes and opportunities, trickling down to the likes of Bazemore and Henry off the bench. This is a tasty matchup with a massive O/U so fire away with the Lakers tonight.
Sacramento
- Injury Notes: Isaiah Thomas and Derrick Williams are both listed as questionable to play on Wednesday.
Much like seeing the Sixers, teams that get to face the Lakers get instantly excited to boost their stats. The Kings will run and gun with LA tonight and that was terrific news last time these two met and a ‘game-stack’ took down the majority of GPPs across the industry. The big question mark here will be the status of IT2 who has missed 3 straight games. Ray McCallum has been stellar in his absence and makes for a terrific play in all formats if IT2 is out. All of the Kings have great matchups tonight and it doesn’t take a ton of research to know that!
- Ray McCallum
- DeMarcus Cousins
- Reggie Evans – If Derrick Williams is out, I like Evans to see solid minutes against a poor frontcourt defense
- Rudy Gay