NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 9th - Page 2
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Miami at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -4, 182 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Douglas-James-Haslem-Bosh
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Miami
This game has the lowest over/under of the night at 182 and the Heat are coming off a really tough home loss to the Nets on Tuesday. It looks like Wade will continue to sit out tonight, leaving Toney Douglas as the starter but against Memphis I really wouldn’t give too much thought to any of the plays here.
Memphis
The biggest weakness of the Heat’s defense has been in the paint, so the duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol could be able to really frustrate Miami on the glass tonight. Memphis is in the thick of a playoff seed battle so you shouldn’t expect to see any of their stars playing limited minutes, but I’d also be very wary of the low O/U here with the expectation that the pace is going to be extremely slow.
- Marc Gasol – The Heat rank 25th against Centers on the season and over the last 15 days so don’t be surprised if Gasol is able to stuff the stat sheet tonight. He makes for an intriguing GPP play in a huge game for the Grizz.
Indiana at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Indiana -5, 184 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Sessions-Middleton-Adrien-Pachulia
Indiana
The Pacers just announced that all 5 starters will rest tonight, leaving me at a loss for what to expect here. Instead, I’ll just try to break down some of the projected starters and let you know what kind of value they have against the NBA’s worst team:
- Evan Turner – Turner has the most upside of any starter for Indiana tonight, and his bench role really dropped his price around the industry.
- Luis Scola – Scola is probably the second best play for the Pacers tonight, but his upside is extremely limited.
- Point Guards – Watson is expected to return but not start tonight with Hill resting, so I’d avoid the whole situation.
- Ian Mahinmi – Mahinmi has decent upside but is foul prone so be cautious using him tonight.
Milwaukee
With the Pacers resting all 5 starters, it’s really difficult to gauge how their team defense will be effected. They’ve been one of the best defenses in the NBA all season but the core starters aren’t going to be on the court and all you can really expect is that they’ll try to maintain the same pace as the first five unit. Because of that, I don’t think you can expect too much from the Bucks tonight.
- Jeff Adrien – Adrien has been a beast of late and with West/Hibbert out the IND frontcourt is extremely thin. He should be able to pull down a ton of boards against Indiana’s B unit.
Chicago at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Chicago -3, 192 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Hummel-Brewer-Love-Dieng
Chicago
This is a matchup of two teams who play entirely different paces which is why I think we’re seeing Vegas set the O/U a little higher than what you’d normally see in a Bulls game. The Wolves have really struggled guarding the 1,2 and 3 positions but it’s hard to trust guys like Dunleavy or Butler when they haven’t been productive in massive minutes of late.
Minnesota
The banged up Wolves will likely be without both Pekovic and Martin again tonight, but I have to say I was SHOCKED to see Dante Cunningham take the floor on Tuesday. Wasn’t that dude just arrested for making terroristic threats? In the NFL he would’ve been cut after his first arrest, let alone the 2nd. Anyways, their rotation last night featured a large amount of Robbie Hummel, Cunningham and Dieng in a blowout W over the Spurs. Love was able to get some rest but I don’t really care for him in this particular matchup.
- Robbie Hummel – Min priced punt who I don’t like as much as I did yesterday, simply because there are more games and likely better value plays available. I’d leave him as GPP only.
Phoenix at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -6, 207 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Evans-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca
Phoenix
The Suns and Pelicans is a game that should draw some DFS interest, with a 207 O/U and just a 6 point spread you can expect this to be uptempo and close throughout. Phoenix is healthy heading down the stretch so don’t expect them to stray from the minutes rotation we’ve seen over the last 10 games or so since Bledsoe returned.
- Eric Bledsoe – NO ranks 29th against SGs over the last 15 days due in large part to the fluctuating rotation they’ve been rolling out. Bledsoe plays a mixture of the 1 and 2 and has nice upside for tonight’s game.
- Markieff Morris – Morris dropped a dud in his last game but continues to be a nice boom or bust play, price dependent, who can put up good numbers in a hurry. NO ranks 26th against PFs over the last 15 days and on the season so he should be able to find some breathing room against the Pelicans tonight.
New Orleans
The Pelicans are a frustrating team, but at least they announced Eric Gordon will be out the remainder of the year so we can rest comfortably knowing that at least Tyreke Evans will see a ton of minutes. The other question mark is Anthony Davis who is listed as probable but Monty Williams holds his cards pretty close to the chest and Davis has already been scratched three times this year after being listed as probable. I’d avoid him at all costs.
- Tyreke Evans – Evans is the guy to use from NOP tonight, with the Suns ranking 21st against SGs over the last 15 days which coincides with the timeline where Eric Bledsoe returned to the lineup. Basically, Bledsoe is jut not a very good defender.
Houston at Denver
- Vegas Line – Houston -1.5, 222.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Lin-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Asik
- Denver Proj. Starters – Brooks-Foye-Miller-Faried-Mozgov
Houston
After scoring 275 points between themselves and the Lakers last night, Houston heads to Denver to take on the Nuggets. This game has an absurd 222 O/U and a 1.5 point spread, making it far and away the best game to target tonight. The 1.5 point spread tells me Vegas knows something is up and there have already been grumblings that the Rockets may rest Harden/Parsons tonight so be VERY cautious with that and make sure to follow those updates as they come out throughout the day.
- Omer Asik – Dwight is questionable but Asik is in a great spot if D12 misses another game.
- Terrence Jones – Fresh off a 33 point effort on Tuesday, Jones might be coming around again and he’s a streaky player with a monster ceiling.
Denver
The Nuggets will be without Ty Lawson again tonight, adding to the list of Wilson Chandler and J.J. Hickson of players with significant roles who will be out. Luckily that leaves Aaron Brooks as the starter and oh my did he have a big game on Sunday against these same Rockets. 25 points, 15 assists and 8 rebounds later Brooks had posted over 60 fantasy points.
- Aaron Brooks – Talked about it above but he might be the highest owned player across the industry tonight. I’d advise following the crowd on this one.
- Quincy Miller – Miller had 41 fantasy points on Sunday in 35 minutes and could be an intriguing outside-the-box GPP punt play tonight in a great matchup.
- Kenneth Faried – Manimal was manimanly on Sunday vs. HOU, racking up 16 points and 13 boards. The Rockets are 28th against PFs on the season, leaving Faried in a good spot especially at home.