NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-12 21:21:28

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Dallas at Indiana

Vegas Line – Indiana -9, 197 Over/Under
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

Dallas

There are 13 games on the schedule tonight which is high even for a Wednesday. It’s the last big night of fantasy basketball before the All-Star Break and there are big tournaments across the industry. I will try to keep the team analysis as short as possible so that you can get through this without feeling like you have just read an entire book.

The first game of the night is between the Mavericks and the Pacers. The Mavericks are in a less than favorable position tonight. They are playing in the second half of a back to back and they are facing a Pacers team that is allowing a league best 90.5 PPG to opponents. The Pacers are ranked 7th or better in terms of fantasy points allowed at defending all five positions on the floor. Even though their rankings have dipped over the last 15 days, there aren’t any matchups that stand out to me on the Mavericks tonight. With an abundance of other options tonight, I will be avoiding the Mavericks.

Indiana

The Pacers have a nice matchup tonight against the Mavericks who don’t mind pushing the tempo. The Mavericks are allowing 102 PPG to opponents and the Pacers are projected to score over 100 points in tonight’s game. This game does come with some potential for a blowout, but as we’ve discussed before, games with big favorites typically hurt the fantasy value of the underdog more than the favorite.

The Mavericks have been very average defensively this season. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the Mavs are ranked between 13th and 17th at defending all positions on the floor. David West has been on fire over the past two weeks and makes a nice play on sites that have yet to adjust his price to his production. Roy Hibbert also looks like a nice play down low, he appears to be out of his slump and the Mavericks gave up a big game to Al Jefferson last night.

Lance Stephenson – It’s going to be very hard to pass up on Stephenson tonight. We all know the type of upside that he provides and he has an extremely favorable matchup against the much smaller Monta Ellis. As long as this game stays within striking distance, Stephenson should top 35 minutes and fill up the stat sheet once again. Stephenson at home in a favorable matchup is a great recipe in DFS.

Paul George – George has been playing at a sub-par level over the last 3 weeks, but he’s starting to come out of it now. He’s topped 35 FP’s in 2 of his last 3 games and should excel against an uptempo Mavericks team that does not defend well in transition. George is a little more expensive than Stephenson, but I think they will both play well tonight.

Memphis at Orlando

Vegas Line – Memphis -2, 179 Over/Under
Memphis Proj. Starters – Calathes-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harris-Davis-Vucevic

Memphis

This game features one of the lowest totals that I have seen this season. There are usually a couple of games per night with a total in the 180’s, but the total for this one is set at 179. The Grizzlies own the slowest pace in the league and tend to establish their tempo regardless of who their opponent is. This is not great for fantasy potential.

The Grizzlies have been without Mike Conley for the past couple of weeks and even though there hasn’t been an announcement about his status for tonight’s game, I think we can assume that they will keep him out and give him the entire All-Star break to recover. Tony Allen should also miss this game as well. Their absence will mean big minutes for Nick Calathes and Courtney Lee, both of which make nice fantasy plays depending on their salary. As far as the bigs of the Grizzlies, I just don’t think there will be enough possessions to go around for them to both cover their value.

Nick Calathes – Calathes has been an excellent fill in for Conley. He’s averaged over 25 FP’s per game in his starts and he has really gotten it going in his last two games by posting 27 and 37 FP’s. This will likely be his last start (assuming Conley sits) and he will want to make the most of it. He has a solid matchup and a cheap salary across the industry.

Orlando

The Magic face the tough defense of the Mavericks. While Bradley Beal managed to have a stellar game against this defense last night, those occurrences are few are far between. The combination of the Grizzlies slow pace (92 possessions per game) and their top 3 defense (allowing 94 PPG)leave the Magic in a very tough position tonight. Nikola Vucevic is the one player that I don’t mind here, but there are much better options at Center tonight.

Atlanta at Toronto

Vegas Line – Toronto -6, 203 Over/Under
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Ayon
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Patterson-Valanciunas

Atlanta

The Hawks travel to Toronto to take on the red hot Raptors. The total for this game has already gone up by 6 points which means that a lot of money is coming in on the over. Over the course of the season, the Raptors have not played at a fast pace, but they have really made an effort to push the ball upcourt. They have scored 100 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. This bodes well for the Hawks’ fantasy value.

If you look at the Raptors DvP rankings over the last 15 days, this confirms that they have been playing at a much quicker pace. They have dropped in the rankings and are ranked 19th or worse against SF’s, PF’s, and Centers over the last 15 days. The only player that I would stay away from in this matchup is Jeff Teague. Kyle Lowry has shut down opposing PG’s all season long.

Paul Millsap – The Raptors have had a very stout defense against opposing bigs this season, but their new pace of play has hurt their interior defense. Not only that, but their defense really takes a big hit with Amir Johnson out of the lineup. If he has to sit out again tonight, that boosts Millsap’s value even more. Look for Millsap to continue his strong play tonight and top 35 FP’s.

Toronto

The Raptors have a very favorable matchup tonight against the Hawks who average 97 possessions per game and have given up an average of 101 PPG to opponents this season. Like I mentioned above, there is one injury situation to monitor here. Patrick Patterson would make a great play if Amir Johnson has to sit out again tonight, he put up 31 FP’s in his start the other night. Amir’s absence would also give a small boost to both Jonas Valanciunas and Tyler Hansbrough.

The guards are typically the best positions to target on the Raptors. Both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have had breakout seasons. Of the two, I have to give the edge to Lowry because he does a little more on the court. If Patterson gets the start at PF, this hurts DeRozan’s value a bit because Patterson takes a lot more shots than the man he would be replacing in the lineup.

San Antonio at Boston

Vegas Line – San Antonio -3.5, 193 Over/Under
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Mills-Green-Belinelli-Diaw-Duncan
Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Green-Wallace-Sullinger-Bass

San Antonio

The Spurs will be without Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, and Tiago Splitter tonight. If any other team in the league lost 3 starters and their 6th man, they would likely be large underdogs, but not the Spurs. They come into this game as 3.5 point favorites against the Celtics. Both of these teams are right around the league average in terms of pace of play and the total suggests that it will be a pretty standard NBA game in terms of scoring.

With Tony Parker out, Patty Mills, Nando De Colo, and Cory Joseph will all see a boost in fantasy value, but Mills is by far the best option of the three. He has really played well this season when given starter’s minutes. Danny Green and Marco Belinelli both have some value as deep sleepers in GPP’s, but there are better value plays for cash games.

Tim Duncan – This could be a night where Coach Pop also decides to rest Duncan, but until we hear otherwise, we have to assume that he will be in the lineup. The Celtics are not a great rebounding team and have struggled to defend talented bigs in the post. With Parker out, Duncan will likely be the focal point of the offense.

Boston

The Celtics will have Rajon Rondo back tonight, but will likely be without Avery Bradley. He is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. The Spurs are only allowing 97 PPG to opponents this season which ranks in the top 10. The Spurs are also ranked 13th or better at defending SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers on the season. This isn’t the best matchup, but there is one play that really stands out tonight.

Rajon Rondo – Rondo’s price is very affordable across the industry. Dollar for dollar, he is one of my top plays at PG tonight. The Spurs will be without Tony Parker tonight and I think Rondo has a very favorable matchup against the combination of Mills, Jospeh, and De Colo. Rondo should be well rested for tonight’s game after sitting out their last game to rest. Rondo has scored 36 or more FP’s in each of his last 3 games and can be taken at a bargain price on most sites.

Charlotte at Brooklyn

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -7.5, 192 Over/Under
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett

Charlotte

The Bobcats and Nets both play at a pace slower than the league average. Both of these teams average 95 possessions or less per game. That typically doesn’t bode well for fantasy potential. The total in this game is pretty low compared to some of the other games on tap tonight. There is one injury situation to monitor here: Kemba Walker is questionable for tonight’s game after experiencing some tightness in his Achilles. If he has to sit out, Ramon Sessions would make a solid fill in if he is close to minimum salary.

The Nets have been very solid defensively during their resurgence. On the season, they are ranked in the top 8 in terms of fantasy points allowed to SF’s, PF’s, and Centers. The matchup doesn’t look great for Al Jefferson even though he has been close to unstoppable lately. Ramon Sessions is probably the only viable play here and his status hinges on Walker’s availability.

Brooklyn

The Nets are expecting to have Kevin Garnett back for tonight’s game. While that’s newsworthy, it doesn’t really make a huge fantasy impact. Garnett, Blatche, and Plumlee will all be seeing limited minutes which really hurts their fantasy value.

The Bobcats have defended two positions well this season: SF’s and PF’s. Josh McRoberts may not seem like a great defender, but he has been shutting down opposing PF’s all season long and Paul Pierce will have to deal with him tonight. Joe Johnson continues his unimpressive season, he should be ignored in all leagues. He just hasn’t been the same fantasy player with D-Will in the lineup.

Deron Williams – Williams is a play that makes some sense tonight. The Bobcats have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PG’s over the last 15 days and D-Will has topped 24 FP’s in 8 of his last 10 games. His price is very affordable on most sites too. He’s in that $6k range on FD and DK and in the 12k range on DS. He should be a lock for 25+ FP’s tonight.