NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 12th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-12 20:28:11

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Cleveland at Detroit

Vegas Line – Detroit -8, 209 Over/Under
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Jack-Deng-Thompson-Zeller
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

Cleveland

This game should be one of the fastest paced games on the schedule tonight. Both of these teams like to push the ball upcourt and the total of 209 points suggests that this will be a very high scoring game. There is a little concern for a potential blowout, but the Pistons have played down to their level of competition more often than not this season.

Anderson Varejao has already been ruled out for tonight’s game. This should open up big minutes for Tristan Thompson, Tyler Zeller, and #1 draft pick Anthony Bennett. Bennett must have eaten his Wheaties yesterday because he surely made the most of his opportunity. He posted 19 points and 10 rebounds in 30 minutes of playing time. He is right at minimum salary on most sites and I think he makes a decent GPP play tonight.

Despite the big bodies of the Pistons, they have been terrible defensively this season. They are giving up 102 PPG to their opponents and have not defended a single position well. Kyrie Irving has a great matchup against Jennings, but his home/road splits are a bit concerning. If you are going to pay up for a player tonight, you are probably better served to take a guy like Kevin Love or Anthony Davis.

Tristan Thompson – With Varejao out, Thompson gets a nice fantasy boost. He will likely see around 30-35 minutes, but the biggest boost comes from the production available in Varejao’s absence. Thompson has a nice matchup and should be able to post another strong double-double tonight.

Dion Waiters – There hasn’t been an update on C.J. Miles’ status for tonight’s game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cavs keep him out again tonight, especially with the way that Waiters has been playing. Waiters has topped 28 FP’s in each of his last 3 games and should continue his hot play tonight.

Detroit

The Pistons are projected to score 108 points tonight which is one of the highest of any team playing tonight. The Cavs have really struggled defensively on the road this season and are allowing 102 PPG to their opponents. Over the last 15 days, the Cavs are ranked 20th or worse at defending all five positions on the floor.

With such a great matchup, all five starters from the Pistons are in play. That said, I don’t recommend taking more than two of them together. Brandon Jennings is facing a Cavs team that has given up the 2nd most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season, Kyle Singler has been quietly producing solid fantasy outings as the starting SG, Greg Monroe should be able to top 25 FP’s in his matchup, and Josh Smith is a great upside play that you can use in GPP’s.

Andre Drummond – Varejao sat out last night’s game and most experts were predicting Cousins to have a huge game offensively. Cousins came out and put up 11 points and 6 rebounds in the first quarter and then looked like he lost interest. That won’t happen with Drummond tonight. He has a terrific matchup against Zeller and the Cavs are not going to be able to keep him off the glass. Don’t be surprised to see him get close to posting a 20/20 stat line.

Sacramento at New York

Vegas Line – New York -5, 203 Over/Under
Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Shumpert-Smith-Anthony-Chandler

Sacramento

The Kings are playing the second half of a back to back after losing to the Cavs in Cleveland last night. I’m surprised that the line isn’t a little bit higher, but this game should stay close enough that both team’s starters will see their usual amount of minutes. When it comes to the Kings, there are typically 3 viable fantasy options and then a mix of scrubs. The Knicks have been great at defending both PG’s (ranked 5th) and Centers (ranked 4th) this season. That leaves Isaiah Thomas and DeMarcus Cousins in tough matchups.

Rudy Gay – Gay is definitely in play tonight. For all the talk about Melo and his play of late, none of it has been about his play on the defensive end of the floor. The Knicks are ranked 20th in terms of FP’s allowed to SF’s over the last 15 days and Gay should be in for a big night in the Garden. Gay has topped 47 FP’s in 3 of his last 6 games.

New York

The Knicks have a great matchup tonight at home against the Kings who are giving up almost 104 PPG this season. The Kings are ranked 14th or worse in terms of FP’s allowed to all five positions on the floor. There are quite a few options on the Knicks tonight. Raymond Felton has a nice matchup against Thomas, Tyson Chandler makes a nice punt option at Center, and J.R. Smith makes a solid GPP play. That said, I think Carmelo Anthony makes the best cash game play.

Carmelo Anthony – Melo has been in a little slump over the past two weeks, but the good news for us is that his price has come down on most fantasy sites. Melo is averaging close to 45 FP’s at home this season and should get his home crowd going early. Melo has one of the highest usage rates in the entire NBA at 32.2%. He has the ball in his hands often and he should make the most of his matchup tonight.

Washington at Houston

Vegas Line – Houston -9, 205 Over/Under
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard

Washington

The Wizards are playing in a back to back situation after a tough loss in Memphis last night. I have the feeling that this could be a let down game for them. The Rockets have really played well at home this season and the Wizards may have the air knocked out of them after last night’s game.

That said, if this game does stay close, it is a great matchup for the Wizards. The Rockets are one of the fastest paced teams in the league and are giving up 101 PPG to opponents. Bradley Beal has been on fire over his past few games, this could be a great night to take him on sites like FD and DK before his price goes up. Nene Hilario also looks like a nice play here, the Rockets have given up the 4th most FP’s to opposing PF’s this season.

Houston

The Rockets face a Wizards team that actually has a pretty solid defense. The Wizards are allowing less than 100 PPG to their opponents and are ranked 8th or better in terms of fantasy points given up to SG’s, PF’s, and Centers. I typically don’t like to target big men against this tough front-court of the Wizards and I will stick to that again tonight. James Harden has really struggled to cover value over the last two weeks and should probably be avoided until he can pick up his production.

Chandler Parsons – Parsons is a great cash game play tonight against the Wizards who are ranked 21st against opposing SF’s on the season. Parsons has topped 33 FP’s in 3 of his last 5 games and has a good chance of topping 30 FP’s again tonight.

New Orleans at Milwaukee

Vegas Line – New Orleans -7, 191 Over/Under
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia

New Orleans

The Pelicans are 7 point favorites tonight against the very short-handed Bucks. Both of these teams average 94 possessions per game which is well below the league average. The total is set at 191 points though and neither of these teams have a very good defense so I don’t expect it to be a defensive showdown. There is one play here that is one of my favorite of the night and then a couple of deep sleeper plays. Eric Gordon price has dropped across the board and it could be a good time to buy low on him. Tyreke Evans is back to playing at his high level, he is also worth a look in GPP’s.

Anthony Davis – Davis should dominate all phases of this game. The Bucks are down to two, possibly three, big men on their active roster. He is going to have a major advantage over the Bucks front-court. He should be a beast on the glass, a dominant force on defense, and a go to option on offense. Don’t be surprised to see him top 50 FP’s tonight.

Milwaukee

Before I get into the picks, let me quickly list the players that the Bucks will be missing tonight: O.J. Mayo, Caron Butler, John Henson, Larry Sanders, and Ekpe Udoh. If that wasn’t enough, they could also be without Ersan Ilyasova (GTD) and Coach Drew may decide to sit Luke Ridnour again. That leaves huge minutes for a ton of players on the Bucks tonight and you are going to see them used often in my lineups tonight.

The Pelicans have not been great defensively this season and even though the DvP rankings suggest to avoid SG’s and SF’s against them, the amount of minutes available for the Bucks players tonight overrules the bad matchup. Nate Wolters, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Khris Middleton should all see 35+ minutes tonight at those two positions and ALL of them are in play.

Brandon Knight – Knight could be asked to play 40+ minutes tonight with all of the injuries to the Bucks. He has a great matchup against the much smaller Roberts and we have seen the type of upside that he provides. I typically like to use Knight in GPP’s, but tonight I think he is in play in cash games as well.

Zaza Pachulia – Pachulia is going to see major minutes tonight regardless, but if Ilyasova has to sit out, the Bucks will only have two active big men on their roster. It will be Pachulia and Miroslav Raduljica. Pachulia is the top value play on the board tonight and I don’t see any scenario in which he doesn’t easily top 20 FP’s tonight unless he gets in foul trouble. He should be used in all lineups tonight.

Denver at Minnesota

Vegas Line – Minnesota -6, 210.5 Over/Under
Denver Proj. Starters – Foye-Miller-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Budinger-Brewer-Love-Turiaf

Denver

The Nuggets will be without Ty Lawson tonight. In their last game, Randy Foye got the start at PG and Quincy Miller got the start at SG. Foye will likely get the start again, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Nuggets give someone else a shot at SG. Check the player news closer to tip-off for an update on who will get the start. The Wolves are giving up 102 PPG and this is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night. I really like Wilson Chandler here, I think he provides a nice upside option at SF. Both J.J. Hickson and Kenneth Faried are better served as GPP plays.

Randy Foye – Foye’s price varies across the board. Fast reacting sites like DS have his price higher than usual, but there are quite a few sites where he is very affordable. Foye has an extremely favorable matchup against Rubio and the Wolves who have had problems with opposing PG’s all season long. Foye is one of my favorite SG options tonight when factoring in price.

Minnesota

The Wolves are projected to score 108 points tonight which makes them a great team to target. They will be without Kevin Martin again tonight so look for Chase Budinger to get the start. While both Budinger and Corey Brewer struggled in their last outing, I expect them to see the majority of minutes at the SG and SF positions and are both in play tonight.

The Nuggets are giving up the 3rd most PPG this season at 104 per contest. They are also ranked 21st or worse at defending the SG, SF, PF, and Center positions. In addition to to the wing players, Ricky Rubio and Ronny Turiaf both deserve fantasy consideration tonight in this excellent matchup.

Kevin Love – The Nuggets have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PF’s this season and Love should be licking his chops for this matchup. Even though he is dealing with an injury, Love is not the type of player that lets it affect his performance. I’m expecting a monster game from Love tonight.