NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 26th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-26 21:25:08

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Cleveland at Oklahoma City

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -13.5, 202.5 Over/Under
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Jack-Deng-Thompson-Hawes
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Adams

Cleveland

The Cavaliers will once again be without Anderson Varejao, Dion Waiters, and C.J. Miles. That doesn’t bode well for their chances to keep this game close. They are also playing in a back to back after losing to the Raptors last night. I typically like to avoid the huge underdogs for fantasy purposes because they have a tough matchup and the starters could end up sitting out the entire 4th quarter.

For that reason, I will be avoiding the Cavs in my cash game lineups tonight. I do think they make interesting GPP plays though. Kyrie Irving will not be a highly owned player tonight, Spencer Hawes could play well against the rookie Adams, and Jarrett Jack should see big minutes again tonight with Waiters and Miles out. However, like I said, I think they are better GPP options that cash game plays.

Oklahoma City

The Thunder have a nice matchup against the Cavaliers who are giving up 101.3 points per game. The issue I have is the potential blowout. A 13.5 point spread is one of the biggest that we have seen in a while. When a line is this big, the favorites can easily get up 20 and take control of the game by half-time. Kevin Durant is just a little too much for me to risk him sitting the entire 4th quarter. Steven Adams makes a great punt play tonight though, he will get the start for the injured Kendrick Perkins and he is close to minimum salary across the board.

Russell Westbrook – Westbrook is the one player that I think makes a solid play from the Thunder tonight. He is on a minutes restriction anyway so he should see the same number of minutes regardless of the outcome of this game. The Cavs have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season and Westbrook is very affordable tonight.

Detroit at San Antonio

Vegas Line – San Antonio -10.5, 210 Over/Under
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Mills-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter

Detroit

The Pistons travel to San Antonio to take on the Spurs. Even though Tony Parker will not play, the Spurs are still 10.5 point favorites in this one. The matchup for the Pistons isn’t a great one. The Spurs are only giving up 97.9 points per game to their opponents which is the 7th lowest in the league this season. The Spurs are also ranked 13th or better in terms of fantasy points allowed to SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers.

Brandon Jennings – Jennings is a risky option everytime he takes the floor, but he has a very nice matchup against the Spurs who are ranked 26th against PG’s this season and ranked 29th against PG’s over the last 15 days. Jennings put up 39 FP’s in their first meeting this season and makes a nice upside play tonight.

San Antonio

The Spurs will be without Tony Parker, but Kawhi Leonard has been cleared to play so they should be close to full strength. They have a very favorable matchup against the Pistons. The Pistons play at a fast pace, they are giving up 103.2 points per game, and they are ranked 17th or worse against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed.

While the matchup is solid, taking the veterans on the Spurs in a potential blowout is a roll of the dice. If the Spurs get up big, guys like Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, and Manu Ginobili will likely see less than 30 minutes. Duncan is the one player that I am mixed on the most. If this game stays close, he could really have a big game as the Pistons have really struggled with their interior defense this season.

Patty Mills – With Parker out, Mills will continue to get the bulk of the work at the PG position. He has been an extremely high ceiling player that has topped 35 FP’s in 4 of his last 8 games. He has a terrific matchup against the Pistons who are ranked 24th against opposing PG’s this season.

Phoenix at Utah

Vegas Line – Phoenix -1, 200 Over/Under
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors

Phoenix

The Suns and Jazz game is expected to be a very close game and the total is set at 200 points so it should be fairly high scoring as well. I will be in attendance for this game so hopefully it lives up to what the oddsmakers expect. The Suns matchup against the Jazz is pretty decent, but the Jazz are one of the slower paced teams in the league as they are only averaging 93 possessions per game. That means that the Suns will likely see a few less possessions than their season average, but the good news is that the Jazz are not an efficient team defensively.

Goran Dragic – Dragic had a rare off night last night against the Wolves. He got into early foul trouble and was never able to get anything going offensively. That’s good news for us because he should be fresh for tonight’s game and he should come out and be extremely focused. He has a nice matchup against the rookie Burke and I think he posts a nice double-double here. UPDATE: It looks like Dragic’s status is in doubt tonight, if he can’t go, bump up Ish Smith, he would make a great value play.

Markieff Morris – Morris is averaging over 30 FP’s per game over his last 5 games and the Suns are finally giving him the minutes that he deserves. Plumlee’s minutes are down and Morris’ minutes are up. It can be tough to take a bench player when his price is this high, but when he is playing 35 minutes per game it’s hard to consider him a bench player.

Utah

The Jazz have been a very tough team to predict this season when they are fully healthy. If Favors, Kanter, or Williams are ever hurt, the other two get a nice fantasy boost. But with all three healthy, it’s really tough to rely on any of them to provide productive fantasy outings on a nightly basis. While Derrick Favors looked good in his first game back from injury, I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid just yet. Coach Corbin rarely gives him more than 30 minutes of playing time. Trey Burke has played well at home this season, but his price has come up and he will be in a tough matchup against Dragic.

Gordon Hayward – This feels like a Hayward type of night. He’s been one of the most difficult players to predict this season. Check out his last 4 games and his FP totals: vs. BKN (16), vs. POR (41), vs. MIN (10), and vs. BOS (23). His best matchup was against the Wolves and it turned out to be his worst fantasy performance. I don’t mind taking him in a tough matchup and I think he is going to have a big game tonight. He’s my dark horse pick for the night.

Brooklyn at Portland

Vegas Line – Portland -2, 205 Over/Under
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez

Brooklyn

This matchup benefits the Nets a lot more than it does the Blazers. The reasoning is simple. The Nets are a slow paced team and the Blazers are a very fast-paced team. The Blazers are giving up 103.4 points per game this season which is the 5th most in the NBA. The Nets are a tough team to predict, but I really like their matchup tonight. Shaun Livingston will be back in the lineup tonight after missing their last game. Paul Pierce and Joe Johnson both make nice GPP plays in this one.

Deron Williams – Williams is coming off of his best game of the season. Granted, it was against the Lakers, but he posted 55 FP’s and should come into this game with a lot of confidence. This should be a high scoring game and the Blazers have not defended PG’s well as they have given up the 2nd most FP’s to the position.

Portland

The Blazers haven’t really missed a beat without Aldridge in the lineup and most of that has to do with the incredible play of Damian Lillard. While the matchup against the Nets isn’t a great one, the Blazers are projected to score well over 100 points tonight and with Aldridge out, there are a few nice fantasy options here.

Nicolas Batum is a solid play tonight. He’s really cheap on FD ($6,200) and offers nice upside at the SF position which can be tough to fill. Wesley Matthews is also in play, he should bounce back after a tough night shooting the ball last night. Thomas Robinson was a popular play that burned a lot of people last night. He’s talented, but still very raw. He should only be used in GPP’s tonight.

Damian Lillard – Lillard has easily topped the 40 FP mark in each of the 4 games without Aldridge. He has taken over as the main scorer of this offense and I don’t see Deron Williams slowing him down. Taking a red hot player in a favorable matchup is never a bad idea in DFS.

Robin Lopez – In the 4 games without Aldridge, Lopez has posted 32, 45, 16, and 40 fantasy points. At his price, he has more than exceeded value in 3 of those 4 games. He is still very cheap on both FD and DK and I think he is flying under the radar tonight.

Houston at L.A.Clippers

Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -5, 222 Over/Under
Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan

Houston

The final game of the night features two of the best offenses in basketball. This game features a total of 222 points which is by far the highest total of the night. While the Sixers/Magic game may be played at a slightly faster pace, this game will likely feature more points scored. Both teams have great fantasy options. Chandler Parsons makes a great cash game play, he is affordable and he’s one of the few SF options that you can count on for a productive outing.

James Harden – Harden is on a tear right now. He is coming off of a season high 43 points last night in only 3 quarters of play. Harden has a great matchup against Crawford and/or Barnes. Look for him to continue his hot play tonight.

Dwight Howard – Howard is my top Center on the board tonight. He’s finally turned into a consistent fantasy player too which always helps value for cash games. Howard has topped 39 FP’s in each of his last 8 games and should continue that streak tonight against the Clippers who are giving up the 4th most FP’s to Centers this season.

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers are also in a great spot tonight. All you really need to know about their matchup is that the Clippers are projected to score 113 points and the Rockets have only defended one position well this season. The only player that I will really be avoiding on the Clippers is DeAndre Jordan. He has a tough matchup against Dwight and he could easily find himself in foul trouble just like DeMarcus Cousins did last night.

Chris Paul – Most sites have adjusted Paul’s price to his recent level of production, but FD still has him listed under $9k. Do not over-think this one. Paul should be in all of your cash game lineups at this point. Paul has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA and is on the team that is projected to score the most points tonight. And he is UNDER-priced. He is a must play on FD and a great play on the other sites.

Blake Griffin – The final play of the night is Mr. Griffin. I mentioned him a little earlier when talking about Anthony Davis, but I will say it again: he is my top PF play tonight. He hasn’t played great against the Rockets in their two meetings this season, but I’m expecting a solid all-around game from him tonight.