NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 8th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Dallas at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -7.5, 209 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Belinelli-Leonard-Diaw-Duncan
Dallas
The line in this game is very telling. It opened with the Spurs as 8 point favorites and it has moved all the way down to 5.5. The injury to Manu Ginobili is a part of it, but I also think that most people expect this game to be close. The total is set at 209 points which is very promising from a fantasy perspective.
The Spurs rank in the top 6 this season against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s. This leaves the trio of Monta Ellis, Shawn Marion, and Dirk Nowtizki with less than favorable matchups. I think Dirk is the best of the 3, but I will likely have limited exposure to him tonight.
- Jose Calderon – Calderon has really played well lately and has a nice matchup tonight against the Spurs who are currently ranked 22nd against PG’s this season. Look for Calderon to push the pace. He is coming off of a big game last night against the Lakers and he should be able to keep it going.
San Antonio
The Spurs are in a favorable position tonight, but they are playing in a back to back and we know the history with Pop and back to backs. Manu Ginobili is expected to miss tonight’s game as he is dealing with a hamstring issue. I expect the Spurs starters to all play, but with Pop, you never really know.
The Mavericks have not defended any single position that well this season. With favorable DvP rankings and a high total in this game, I think the Spurs are a great team to target. Tony Parker should be in for a nice game and Tim Duncan should be able to dominate Dirk in the post. However, my favorite play tonight is Kawhi Leonard.
- Kawhi Leonard – Leonard is a nice value option at SF tonight. His price is reasonable across the industry and Ginobili’s injury should open up both minutes and production for Leonard. There aren’t many times where I absolutely expect him to top 25 FP’s, but I do tonight.
Detroit at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Detroit
The Pistons are playing in a back to back situation after losing a tough game to the Knicks last night. The good news for them is that the Raptors are also playing in a back to back. This game is expected to stay competitive and with the total set at 198 points, it’s expected to be fairly high scoring.
The Raptors DvP rankings make my job extremely easy. They have really defended PG’s, PF’s, and Centers well this season which makes sense because Lowry, Johnson, and Valaciunas are all solid defenders. I wouldn’t rule out Andre Drummond though, he is basically matchup proof due to his style of play and he has an affordable salary on most sites.
- Josh Smith – Smith has been a boom or bust type of player this season, but you can’t argue with the upside that he gives you. He can fill up the stat sheet and is one of the few players in the NBA that can score double-digit fantasy points on blocks and steals alone. I like him more as a GPP play, but he could pay off in cash games as well.
Toronto
The Raptors are in a favorable position tonight. The Pistons play with a much quicker tempo than they do so you can expect them to have a few more possessions than their season average. Looking at the Pistons DvP rankings, there really aren’t any positions that you want to avoid except for maybe PF. That said, if Tyler Hansbrough is out again, I think Amir Johnson is still in a solid position. Jonas Valanciunas is a nice option if you want to punt the Center position.
- Kyle Lowry – Lowry is playing at an All-Star level right now. He has topped 35 fantasy points in 7 of his last 9 games and should be able to top that mark again tonight. The Pistons have really struggled to defend the PG position this season and Lowry’s numbers should benefit from a faster pace.
Indiana at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – Indiana -4, 190 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Antic
Indiana
The Pacers are always a tough team to gauge on a nightly basis for a few reasons. They have a ton of talent on their team, they play at a slow pace, and they can easily blow their opponents out. All of which isn’t great for individual fantasy value. That said, I do like the team’s matchup against the Hawks. The Hawks rank 20th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, and Centers this season. George Hill and David West both make a nice value plays, but I think Hibbert and George are the two top options here.
- Paul George – Some people were worried that the addition of Danny Granger would hurt George’s minutes and production, but neither have taken a dip. If anything, Granger has hurt Stephenson’s value the most. George can fill up the stat sheet and I love his matchup against the Hawks.
- Roy Hibbert – While I love the matchup for Hibbert against the short-handed Hawks interior, the fact that he is playing on a back to back does worry me a little bit. However, he logged over 30 minutes the other night in this same situation. Hibbert has great upside and should be a force on both ends of the floor.
Atlanta
The Hawks have an extremely tough matchup tonight against the Pacers. I typically like to avoid all fantasy players against the Pacers unless there is an injury or an extreme value play. The Pacers rank in the top 8 at defending every single position on the floor. Both Jeff Teague and Paul Millsap have been playing well, but why take either of them when there are better options in their same price ranges?
Golden State at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Golden State -6, 201.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Livingston-Anderson-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
Golden State
Vegas is expecting a lot out of the Nets tonight. While they have been playing better of late, I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see the Warriors blow the Nets out tonight, especially considering the fact that Deron Williams is out. That said, I won’t factor it in here with the line only at 6.
The Nets have had very mixed DvP rankings thanks to their ever changing starting lineup. I tend to trust the DvP rankings of the last 15 days, but even since then there have been lineup changes. Instead of trusting the rankings, I think looking at the individual matchups makes the most sense.
- David Lee – If the Nets keep the same starters as last game, guess who will be guarding Lee? That’s right, it’s Paul Pierce. If this is the case, Lee should have a monster game on both ends of the floor. He has been posting monster double-doubles and I expect that to continue tonight.
Brooklyn
The Nets are facing a Warriors team that is near the top of the league in pace of play. While they have that going in their favor, the Warriors are also a very solid defensive team which sort of cancels out the quick pace of play. Deron Williams has been ruled out of tonight’s game which means Shaun Livingston will get another start at point.
The Warriors have really been solid defensively this season. They rank in the top 12 against every position except for PG’s. I think the Williams injury gives value to both Joe Johnson and Alan Anderson, but for the most part the only Nets player that I will be targeting tonight is Livingston.
- Shaun Livingston – The one position that the Warriors have struggled to defend is the PG position. The Warriors are ranked 24th this season against PG’s and Livingston will have plenty of opportunities in this game. He makes a solid value play.
Phoenix at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -7, 213 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
Phoenix
The Suns and Wolves game is one of my favorite games of the night. Both of these teams average at least 98 possessions per game which means there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around. The Suns will be without Eric Bledsoe again tonight which means Gerald Green will get another start at SG. I think he makes a solid value play on sites where his price hasn’t risen dramatically.
The Wolves have been average at defending Centers and below average at defending all of the other positions on the floor. While I would like to target Frye or Morris tonight, their minutes have me wanting to avoid them completely except for in GPP’s.
- Goran Dragic – If I had to pick my top play tonight it would be Dragic. With Bledsoe out, this is his offense to run. He has great upside against Rubio and the Wolves and he should really play well in an uptempo style of game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post a 25, 10, and 5 game tonight.
Minnesota
The Wolves are also in a favorable position. Anytime two fast-paced teams get together, it is good for everyone involved. The Suns have been very average defensively this season. If you take a look at their DvP rankings, they are ranked between 11th and 19th against every position.
I think all of the Wolves’ starters are in play tonight. Nikola Pekovic continues to post strong fantasy numbers, Ricky Rubio should benefit from the fast pace, and Corey Brewer has scored over 20 FP’s in 5 straight games.
- Kevin Love – Not factoring in price, Love is the top fantasy option tonight. If you can find a way to get him in your lineup, it could really pay off nicely. Frye isn’t going to be able to defend him down low and he should be a beast on the offensive glass.
- Kevin Martin – Martin is one of those players that is tough to put a finger on. He is a great scorer, but that is about all he does on the floor. I like the matchup and the upside here, but he is always a bit of a wildcard because his fantasy production relies so heavily on actual points.