NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-12 20:25:40

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Brooklyn at Miami

Vegas Line – Miami -9, 201 Over/Under
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Plumlee
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh

Brooklyn

The Nets picked up a big win against the Raptors the other night and will look to take out another Eastern Conference foe tonight in the Miami. This is a very tough matchup though. The Heat have really turned up their play on the defensive end of the floor since the beginning of February and are holding their opponents to 98.4 points per game which is ranked 7th in the NBA. Looking at the DvP rankings, the matchup only gets worse for the Nets. The Heat are ranked 4th or better against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s this season.

The one area that the Heat continuously struggle in is rebounding. The Heat are the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league in total rebounding percentage (47.4%) and are ranked dead last against Center over the last 15 days. With Kevin Garnett already ruled out, Andray Blatche is a player to keep your eye on tonight. He played very well in limited minutes against the Heat earlier this season and has the skill set to make this Heat team pay. He makes a solid upside play tonight.

Miami

The Heat are 9 point favorites tonight against a Nets team that loves to slow the pace of the game down. The Nets are only averaging 94 possessions per game and are holding their oppoenents to 98.9 points per game which is ranked 9th in the NBA. While the Heat are a very efficient team offensively, none of Heat players really stand out from a fantasy perspective. LeBron James has come back down to Earth in his last 4 games after going on that tear and his price is still too expensive for my taste. Dwyane Wade has really been playing well recently, but you always have to worry about his injuries. Finally, Chris Bosh has a decent matchup tonight against Plumlee and Blatche, but I find myself liking other options at his price point.

Denver at Orlando

Vegas Line – Denver -1, 212.5 Over/Under
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-O’Quinn-Vucevic

Denver

The Nuggets and Magic game is a terrific game to target tonight. Both of these teams like to push the pace and neither team likes to concern itself with playing defense. The Magic are giving up 102 points per game this season and are ranked 14th or worse against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Magic are also a bad rebounding team as they are only grabbing 48.4% of total rebounds available this season.

It’s hard to rule out any of the starters tonight on the Nuggets. Wilson Chandler has been much more aggressive offensively over the past two weeks and is still priced fairly. Timofey Mozgov is a risky option at Center, but if he can post another 20 FP performance, he would make a nice punt option for the price. Randy Foye is price well on StarStreet tonight if you are looking to punt the SG position.

Ty Lawson – Even though the Magic have actually been decent at defending PG’s this season, the matchup against Nelson doesn’t worry me at all. His price has gone up across the industry, but he has been on fire since coming back from his injury. He’s topped 40 FP’s in 3 of his last 5 games. Look for Lawson to push the pace and have another solid night offensively.

Kenneth Faried – We’ve been waiting all season for this, but Faried is finally seeing consistent minutes. Faried has topped 31 minutes in each of his last 6 games and has finally started to produce on the road. In his last 6 games, Faried is averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 assists. This may be one of the last times that you can take Faried at this price point.

Orlando

The Magic have a very favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets who are allowing their opponents to score 105.6 points per game which is the 3rd most in the NBA. If you look at the Nuggets DvP rankings, you will see a lot of rankings that are blue. Blue means go in terms of matchups. All five starters on the Magic are in play tonight.

Victor Oladipo was back in the lineup the other night and it was interesting to see the minutes distribution. Oladipo came off the bench and actually ate into the minutes of Tobias Harris more than Maurice Harkless. I’m not sure if that will be the case moving forward, but as long as Harkless is seeing 30+ minutes, he will continue to make a great punt play.

Nikola Vucevic – The Nuggets have been one of the worst teams at defending the paint all season long and even though Vucey is coming off of a disappointing game against the Bucks, he should be in for a fine outing tonight. Vucey has scored 34 or more FP’s in 6 of his last 7 games and makes a terrific play on both FD and DK tonight.

Arron Afflalo – Everyone loves a good revenge game, especially when it is against the 3rd worst defense in the NBA. Afflalo hasn’t been that 30+ FP scorer lately, but he has a great chance to top that mark tonight. Afflalo is averaging close to 30 FP’s per game at home this season and should be locked in for 35 minutes against this weak Nuggets’ defense.

Sacramento at Philadelphia

Vegas Line – Sacramento -9.5, 216 Over/Under
Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Evans-Cousins
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims

Sacramento

There aren’t many times in the season that you will see the Kings as 9.5 point favorites on the road in the second half of a back to back. That just goes to show you how bad this Sixers team is. The Sixers have now lost 17 straight games and own one of the worst defenses that the NBA has ever seen. The Sixers are giving up 111 points per game this season and are ranked 29th or 30th against every position on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

The Big 3 from the Kings are obviously the best plays here, but I don’t mind a couple of value plays either. The Sixers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and Reggie Evans could be a great punt play tonight. He led the league in rebounding percentage last season and has been the starter at PF. He could easily hit value tonight with rebounds alone. Ben McLemore is also in play as a deep sleeper, but it’s hard to take a player that does next to nothing on the floor in 30+ minutes per night.

DeMarcus Cousins – If you are thinking about rostering all 3 of the Kings’ star players, you may want to think again. Those 3 would end of costing between 40-50% of the cap on most sites. That is just a little too much salary wrapped up in one team. That said, I don’t mind taking two of the three. Cousins has a terrific matchup tonight and I think he tops the 50 FP mark for the 2nd time in 3 games.

Rudy Gay – Gay’s price is depressed across the industry. He’s had a few down games over the past week which puts him in a great spot to buy low on him. He is under $8k on both FD and DK and should make a solid play on all sites across the industry. Gay can really fill up the stat sheet when he is aggressive and the Sixers do not protect the rim well.

Isaiah Thomas – Thomas is another player that you can buy low on right now. His price on DK is under $7k which puts him in that rare “must play” range. The Sixers do not have a defense and targeted PG’s against them has been a common theme of many DFS players this season. Thomas had a solid game last night and should build on it tonight.

Philadelphia

The Sixers have lost 17 in a row, but they were very competitive against the Knicks the other night and are only 9.5 point underdogs tonight against the Kings. The Kings are giving up 103.7 points per game this season which is the 4th most in the NBA. That means that we have 2 of the 4 worst defenses squaring off tonight. Looking at the DvP rankings, the only position that we should avoid is the Center position. Cousins has done a better job on the defensive end of the floor and opposing Centers tend to get into foul trouble against him.

If you look at the season long DvP rankings, Thaddeus Young appears to have a great matchup, but now that Reggie Evans is in the starting lineup, opposing PF’s have had a much tougher time against the Kings. The Kings are ranked 7th against PF’s in the last 15 days and Young may have trouble getting any rebounds against the tough Evans. James Anderson has topped 23 FP’s in 4 of his last 5 games and makes a nice punt option at SG.

Michael Carter-Williams – MCW had his best game in over a month the other night against the Knicks. Maybe that performance can jump-start him for the final month of the season. MCW struggled against the Kings in their first meeting, but only played 27 minutes in that contest. I like his price on FD ($7,100) and the Kings are ranked 22nd against PG’s this season.

Detroit at Toronto

Vegas Line – Toronto -9, 206 Over/Under
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas

Detroit

The Pistons are playing in the second half of a back to back and have to face a tough Raptors’ defense tonight. The Raptors are holding their opponents to 97.1 points per game this season which is the 4th fewest in the NBA. The Raptors also like to slow the pace of the game down as they are only averaging 94 possessions per game. The DvP rankings don’t make a case for the Pistons either as the Raptors are ranked 14th or better against all positions in terms of fantasy points allowed. Other than Kyle Singler and Rodney Stuckey as punt plays, the Pistons are an easy team to avoid tonight.

Toronto

The Raptors on the other hand have a very favorable matchup. The Pistons are giving up 103.6 points per game which is the 5th most in the NBA. Looking at the DvP rankings, the Pistons are ranked 18th or worse against all five positions on the floor. The Raptors average 100 points per game on the season, but based on the Vegas line are projected to score 107.5 points tonight. You can safely give a nice fantasy boost to all five starters.

Patrick Patterson will sit out another game which means we will continue to see Amir Johnson and Tyler Hansbrough play extended minutes. Patterson’s absence hasn’t resulted in extra mintues for Jonas Valanciunas though. Of the three bigs, Amir Johnson is easily the top option. He has scored over 20 FP’s in 10 straight games and has topped 30 FP’s twice in that stretch.

Kyle Lowry – I’ve let Lowry’s lingering injuries cloud my judgement of him over the past few games. Lowry plays at 100% when he is on the floor and that’s really all that matters. He draws a terrific matchup against Jennings and the Pistons who have surrendered the 7th most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season.

DeMar DeRozan – DeRozan is the top SG on the board tonight. He is facing a Pistons defense that has given up the 2nd most FP’s to SG’s ever since Singler was inserted into the starting lineup. DeRozan is very affordable across the industry (especially on DK and DS) and should be in for another solid outing tonight.

Charlotte at Washington

Vegas Line – Washington -4.5, 197.5 Over/Under
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat

Charlotte

The Bobcats travel to Washington to take on the Wizards who have really picked up their play on the defensive end of the floor. Even though this game has a total of 197 points, both of these teams are ranked in the top half of the league over the last month. Over the last 15 days, the Wizards are ranked 14th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

It sounds like Gerald Henderson will return to the lineup tonight which ends the run for Chris Douglas-Roberts as a value play. It also may eat into Kemba Walker production a bit. You can make a case for Al Jefferson in this one, but why take Big Al against Gortat when you can take Cousins against the Sixers at a very similar price point?

Washington

The Wizards also have a less than favorable matchup tonight. The Bobcats are holding their opponents to 97.4 points per game this season which is the 5th fewest in the NBA. Looking at the DvP rankings, the Bobcats are ranked 20th or better against all positions on the season and are ranked 16th or better against all positions over the last 15 days. Marcin Gortat may be worth a look, but his price has risen across the industry and he rarely has fantasy games over 40 FP’s.

John Wall – Wall always makes an interesting play at home where he is averaging over 40 FP’s per game this season. The one position that the Bobcats have struggled with this season is the PG position and Wall had a nice outing in their first meeting as he posted a respectable 17 points and 8 assists. There are probably better options for cash games, but he makes a high ceiling play in a tournament.