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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, May 3rd

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-05-04 03:07:54

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Cleveland Cavaliers
torontonba Vegas Total 214.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 110.8
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- -1.6
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 17 Adj. DvP 11 3 3 5 10
DRPM -2.16 -0.77 1.57 1.93 0.95 DRPM 0.62 -2.21 -1.29 1.09 0.84

Toronto Raptors

Coach Dwane Casey removed Norman Powell from the starting lineup in Game 1 and reinserted Jonas Valanciunas. It didn’t turn out so great, Cleveland was up 12 by the end of the first frame. Now we’re getting reports that Casey is ready for another change as he pursues a more potent offense. Not only could Powell replace JV, but Jakob Poeltl may start ahead of DeMarre Carroll. To be clear, this hasn’t been confirmed, it was first reported by Michael Grange of Rogers Sportsnet and we may not know anything official until we near lock. As we saw with Valanciunas, a start doesn’t mean all that much for a guy like Poeltl; Valanciunas ended up receiving 20.7 minutes.

During the season, the rookie Poeltl averaged 0.68 FD ppm on a 12.6% usage rate. When he was on the court with DeRozan, those numbers dropped to 0.62 and 8.9%. He barely played with Ibaka (36.4 minutes), let alone Ibaka and DeRozan and Lowry and Powell (0.0 minutes). We may not know exactly how he’ll fit in this group, if he does end up starting, but it seems safe to say he won’t carry a very high ceiling. On FanDuel, he’s just $1,700 and the center position is much weaker than it is on DraftKings; while he would be in play for tournaments, the upside may not be worth the risk.

The rookie may make little impact on the rest of the starters, but Powell will definitely change the dynamic. Most notably, Powell’s presence seems to have a negative impact on Kyle Lowry. When the two have shared the court this postseason, Lowry’s usage rate has been 15.3% and he’s produced 0.78 FD ppm whereas during the regular season Lowry averaged a usage rate of 27.1% and returned 1.05 FD ppm. That’s a drastic difference and it also has to do with Serge Ibaka. However, last game, Lowry took 13 FGAs, his second-most this postseason, and he scored 20 points. He ended up with a usage rate of 22.0% and his output went up to 0.95 FD ppm. Powell clearly has a negative impact on his performance.

Of course, Powell would be a solid value option on FanDuel at $4,300 if he gets the nod. He received 31 or more minutes in each of his three starts in the playoffs and he delivered 0.75 FD ppm. On DraftKings he costs $5,200, which seems to be a little too much. Should he rejoing the starting five, he may help DeMar DeRozan. The shooting guard averaged 1.16 FD ppm across Powell’s three starts, an increase of 0.05 above his normal production, and he commanded a usage rate of 34.6%. These results may be due to Powell’s help spacing the floor and drawing attention away from DeRozan. Toronto’s leading scorer has been inconsistent in the playoffs, but if Casey is hunting for more points, he’ll want them to primarily flow through DeRozan. Although he took just 16 shots in Game 1, we should expect more this time around.

Serge Ibaka has had a pretty nice postseason; his usage has increased 4.6% and his per-minute production jumped 0.37 FD ppm to 1.18. Even during the games Powell started, his usage remains the second-highest on the team at 25.1% and he produces 1.11 FD. He managed to avoid foul trouble in Game 1 against Cleveland and picked up 32 minutes. That figure would have been higher had the starters not been pulled with three minutes remaining. Assuming Toronto can keep it close, Ibaka is a great option tonight.

P.J. Tucker had a big Game 1 and he’ll likely be a popular option tonight. He’s not a safe play though, especially if Powell picks up more minutes and DeRozan gets going. Bear in mind, he averaged 3.0 points in the first series, so his 13-point performance against Cleveland seems a little flukey. He made six shots in one outing after making five total baskets over six contests against the Bucks. He was able to accumulate 11 rebounds, while that may be a little high, he could continue to find success in that area as Cleveland ranked 23rd in rebounding after the break (48.9%).

There aren’t many other options coming off Toronto’s bench. Patrick Patterson could earn 20+ minutes a night in this series, but he’s produced 0.56 FD ppm in the playoffs and offers minimal upside.

Pace is an important factor for this team. Their series with the Bucks averaged 92.48 per game, but their first game with the Cavs jumped to 102.28. We’ll have to see if that continues to tonight, but it should we can be confident their second-round series will be faster series than their opener.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,600 $7,900 1.05 37.4 1.1 39.4 -10.0 27.3% -6.9% 23 -2.16
DeMar DeRozan $8,300 $8,200 1.12 35.4 1.4 39.6 -4.4 34.2% -4.5% 29 -0.77
Norman Powell $4,300 $5,200 0.76 18.0 6.0 13.6 6.3 21.0% -3.2% 26 1.57
DeMarre Carroll $2,700 $3,500 0.66 26.1 -7.7 17.2 -3.9 15.3% -1.2% 9 1.93
Serge Ibaka $6,200 $6,500 0.89 30.7 -1.0 27.2 2.3 20.1% -0.2% 17 0.95
P.J. Tucker $4,300 $3,300 0.65 27.6 -3.4 17.9 -7.7 12.0% -2.7% 26 N/A
Jonas Valanciunas $4,800 $4,200 1.00 25.8 -4.7 25.8 -8.2 18.7% 2.2% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Kyle Lowry (if Powell not starting), Norman Powell ( FD, if starting)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Powell starting), Norman Powell (DK, if starting)

Cleveland Cavaliers

One of the more surprising things from the Cleveland side was Tristan Thompson playing 38 minutes in Game 1. He pushed towards the 40-minute mark a few times last postseason, but mostly remained around 30 or below, and averaged 29.6 per game. This year, he’s averaged 32.6. While he may fluctuate a bit from game to game, he seems like a good bet for 32-36 most nights. He’s a pretty consistent player and he’s pulled down 10+ rebounds in all five playoff games so far. With his extra time on the floor on Monday, he took eight shots and six free throws, both playoff-highs for him. We probably need to temper expectations with him coming off a big game as he’s just not a big scorer. However, with the center position so weak on FanDuel, he’s one of the best options available.

There weren’t any other big surprises in the rotation; Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love earned 35 and 32 minutes respectively after they were pulled with three minutes to go, and Deron Williams played the entire fourth quarter due to game flow and J.R. Smith’s injury. Smith hurt his thumb and he didn’t return after leaving in the third. He wasn’t listed on the injury report today, so he should be fine and ready to receive a full workload. Iman Shumpert, Deron Williams, and Kyle Korver all played between 17-18 minutes, but they could all drop a few of those in Game 2 with Smith expected to be back to normal. Williams should see the most minutes of the trio and he’s also been the better fantasy performer, returning 0.82 FD ppm. He has a limited upside within his playing time, but he’s not off the table at his low salary of $2,500 – he’s posted 12 or more FD points in four consecutive games. Smith himself isn’t a terrific fantasy option, but he at least comes with upside should he get hot. On average, he’s produced a measly 0.37 FD ppm as the vast majority of the shots go to the big three.

Perhaps the most significant change in Game 1 was in Cleveland’s passing. After averaging 19.8 assists per game against the Pacers, they racked up 26 against the Raptors. Even weirder, they weren’t primarily coming through LeBron James. Nope, it was Kyrie Irving, who contributed ten assists. It marks the ninth game this season he’s hit double-digits in the stat and the first time he’s exceeded four in the past four contests. It’ll be interesting to see if this trend holds overall, but it’s highly doubtful Irving will maintain his 47.2% assist rate from Game 1 throughout the series. Inevitably, James will be more involved as a facilitator on offense. Irving still needs to score a lot of points to pay off his salary. He only ended up taking 16 shots, the fewest he’s attempted this postseason. At the same time, Love matched his playoff-high of 13 FGAs; it’s the third consecutive game he’s launched 12+. He’s only completed 28.9% of his attempts over the last three, and we can expect better. He pulled down nine rebounds and he should find more success on the glass in this series if the Raptors take Valanciunas out of the starting lineup.

The last thing to note is LeBron James continues to be ridiculous. He played 41 minutes in a blowout and posted a 35-point double-double. He now has a usage rate of 34.8%, a 3.1% increase from the regular season, and he’s bumped his fantasy production 0.12 FD ppm to 1.43. He’s expensive, but he’s probably worth it as he appears to be the best play on the board and there is not much below him and Leonard at the position.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $7,800 1.09 35.1 -0.7 38.2 -4.2 32.0% 4.8% 11 0.62
J.R. Smith $3,500 $3,900 0.56 29.0 -0.2 16.2 -5.8 14.4% -3.7% 3 -2.21
LeBron James $12,700 $11,700 1.30 37.8 5.9 49.3 14.3 32.9% 1.3% 3 -1.29
Kevin Love $7,900 $7,400 1.14 31.4 1.6 35.8 -7.0 25.2% -5.4% 5 1.09
Tristan Thompson $5,700 $5,000 0.77 30.0 1.2 23.0 -0.1 11.0% 0.2% 10 0.84
Kyle Korver $3,200 $2,900 0.63 26.2 -8.9 16.5 -6.9 15.1% -1.8% 3 N/A
Iman Shumpert $3,300 $2,500 0.57 25.5 -8.8 14.5 -8.6 14.0% -6.2% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson

Secondary Plays – J.R. Smith, Deron Williams (FD)

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs – 10:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets San Antonio Spurs
houstonnba Vegas Total 215.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 110.3
Pace +/- -2.3 Pace +/- 3.8
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge David Lee
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2 Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 26
DRPM -0.79 2.10 0.85 1.25 1.36 DRPM 1.89 -1.81 1.54 -0.16 1.25

Houston Rockets

Houston clobbered the Spurs in Game 1. They made 22 threes on 50 attempts and San Antonio was down 30 points by halftime. It’s doubtful they’ll have a repeat performance tonight. Vegas has the Rockets as 5.5-point underdogs and they’ve given them an implied total of 104.8 points, 10.6 below their average.

Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza had notable performances. After making four total threes in the first round, Anderson made four in one game. He also contributed three assists after having two total against the Thunder. It’s hard to say whether he’ll see the same type of playing time again (35 minutes). He opened the playoffs with 38 minutes but had a reduced workload as he played poorly. In Games 4 and 5, he received 20 and 24 minutes as Louis Williams and Eric Gordon earned more time on the floor. Overall, his usage has dropped 3.3% and his fantasy production slipped 0.15 DK ppm to 0.63 in the playoffs. Ariza made five of ten threes on his way to 23 points and it was just the second time he’s exceeded seven points in the postseason. His workload is more secure than Anderson as he’s played 36+ in all none blowout games, but his usage is down 3.6% to 11.4% and he’s only returned 0.54 DK ppm, a decline of 0.24. In order for Ariza and Anderson to get off so many shots, they had to take some away from Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, and most notably, James Harden. Williams, who took eight FGAs in 23 minutes, had taken 13-15 shots in four consecutive games while Gordon, who also put up eight attempts in 24 minutes, launched 10+ times in the each of the final four games against the Thunder. In a non-blowout scenario, Gordon and Williams should receive more time off the bench, which means we shouldn’t get too down on them or too high on Anderson and Ariza. Keep in mind Williams was second on the team in the opening series with 18.8 points per game. He’s also second in usage at 24.9% and he’s turned in 0.99 DK ppm. Gordon isn’t as exciting a target, but he normally earns more time on the court than Williams.

As for Harden, he took 13 shots in 32 minutes, both lows for the playoffs. He did manage to contribute 14 assists though as the whole squad was effective. San Antonio doesn’t typically allow many assists though, they ranked sixth (21.4 allowed per game). They also ranked fifth in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) and Harden pulled down one board in the first meeting. It seems unlikely he’s going to keep up this assist rate and it would make sense for him to continue to struggle on the glass. We can expect his volume as scorer to rise though, but we should keep in mind the Spurs were fourth in opponent field goal percentage (44.3%) and three-point percentage (34.4%).

Simply put, Game 1 was an outlier. It’s a good demonstration of the volatility the Rockets seek when they shoot so many three pointers; sometimes it won’t work, but when they make 44.0% of their attempts from deep, they’re going to be hard to beat. Plus, they have six guys in the rotation they can turn to. It makes them a difficult team to project in fantasy as well, they can simply roll with the hot hand at any given moment. That primarily affects Anderson, Williams, Gordon, and Patrick Beverley. The point guard only played 24 minutes in Game 1, and he likely won’t see much more time in a non-blowout. He continued to be a solid rebounder, pulling down seven boards in his time, but he only scored seven points as six other players took more shots than him. He’s generally consistent in his peripherals; outside of one game, he’s hauled in 6-10 rebounds and contributed 2-4 assists in each playoff game. He finds his upside when he scores, which goes back to the hot hand situation. He’s scored 15+ three times in the postseason and dropped seven or fewer in the other three. He’s an interesting tournament target with his price declining.

Clint Capela also got in on the fun, scoring 20 points after averaging 6.0 in the previous four games. He also pulled down 13 rebounds. As a team, Houston out-rebounded San Antonio 49-45, but it seems like a good bet that San Antonio will get the better of them on the glass over the course of the series. That means it’ll be difficult for Capela to have that much success in his time share with Nene going forward. He ended up earning 25 minutes, matching his playoff-high, but he probably won’t surpass that mark tonight. Still, he’s been a great per-minute guy in the postseason, averaging 1.15 DK ppm, so he’s certainly in play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,400 $5,000 0.82 30.7 -3.1 25.2 -0.2 16.3% 5.9% 8 -0.79
James Harden $12,600 $10,800 1.48 36.4 1.0 53.9 -3.7 38.6% 3.1% 12 2.10
Trevor Ariza $5,400 $5,100 0.72 34.7 3.3 25.1 -9.0 14.4% -5.2% 2 0.85
Ryan Anderson $4,600 $4,200 0.71 29.4 -0.8 20.9 -6.6 17.2% -3.7% 2 1.25
Clint Capela $6,200 $4,600 1.08 23.9 -1.7 25.9 -3.6 19.1% -4.2% 2 1.36
Eric Gordon $5,000 $4,900 0.77 31.0 2.3 23.8 -0.5 22.0% -4.8% 12 N/A
Lou Williams $4,900 $5,500 1.03 24.6 3.9 25.4 1.4 28.9% -4.3% 12 N/A
Nene Hilario $5,000 $4,400 0.97 17.9 4.1 17.3 6.3 19.3% -1.0% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Patrick Beverley, Clint Capela, Nene

San Antonio Spurs

Welp. Things didn’t go according to plan for San Antonio. Instead of racking up fantasy points in one of the best matchups available, Kawhi Leonard was the only player on the entire team with more than 20.0 DK points. He was also the only guy to play more than 29 minutes as everyone got pulled early in the blowout. It’s probably best to view this one as an outlier. However, we can expect adjustments from coach Gregg Popovich. It’s possible Dewayne Dedmon rejoins the starting five and gets his 12-14 minutes for defensive purposes. The move would send David Lee back to the bench.

Lee has been a popular value option, but he got burned on defense a few times and Pop wasn’t pleased at all. His workload is not secure and he’ll be a risky option tonight. He’s been pretty lousy so far in the postseason relative to his normal production – his usage is down 5.8% and his production slipped 0.34 DK ppm to 0.62. He was able to pull down seven boards against the Rockets but he only took two shots. Considering he averaged 5.3 FGAs per game, we can expect more if he gets the time on the court. It’s possible we see more Pau Gasol instead though. The vet came in for Lee around the eight-minute mark in the first quarter of Game 1 and finished with 21.5 minutes after exiting early in the fourth due to game flow. During the season, he averaged 1.1 DK ppm on a 22.8% usage rate against the Rockets. He’s an intriguing contrarian tournament option tonight. He’s had a slow start to the playoffs, but he can and should be effective in this matchup. He’d have to start earning more time though, he’s only averaged 23.0 minutes. In other words, he’s a very risky bet.

Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge will lead the team in minutes in non-blowout situations. Leonard still managed an excellent game despite the circumstances, scoring 21 points while grabbing 11 boards and contributing six assists. He’s producing 1.31 DK ppm this postseason, an increase of 0.03, and he’s going to continue to be to go-to guy. At this point, Aldridge feels like a pretty distant second, if not third option. Tony Parker has a usage rate of 29.6% this offseason and he’s averaging more field goal attempts per game in 26.4 minutes (12.0 FGAs) than Aldridge is in 35.6 minutes (11.7 FGAs). Aldridge should turn it around in this series. 81.6% of his buckets come from the restricted area or mid-range and Houston ranked 26th in opponent field goal percentage in the former (65.6%) and 22nd in the latter (40.9%). In Game 1, he went 2-for-7 with six rebounds. Again, this game was abnormal and it’ll be interesting to see how he responds tonight, but he certainly appears to have a much lower floor than Kevin Love and Serge Ibaka. Parker scored 11 points, added four rebounds and contributed three assists. He should continue to see a healthy dose of minutes in competitive games and his current usage rate can’t be ignored as the Spurs are leaning on him big time. He’s also producing 0.90 DK ppm, which is an increase of 0.11. Plus, he’s affordable across the industry.

It’s hard to get a read on the bench guys from the first outing. Both Davis Bertans and Jonathon Simmons got on the court in the first quarter, but following their first stints, they didn’t re-emerge until the game was over late in the third. Manu Ginobili will usually stick around 15-18 while Patty Mills seems like a safe bet to cross the 20-minute mark. They’ve both turned in 0.72 DK ppm, but Mills has a larger upside. Danny Green starts but he’s not playing a ton of minutes and he’s been very ineffective this postseason, retuning 0.58 DK ppm.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,900 $5,300 0.74 25.2 1.1 18.6 1.8 23.1% 4.2% 25 1.89
Danny Green $3,800 $3,600 0.62 26.6 -2.9 16.5 -4.0 13.8% -1.5% 26 -1.81
Kawhi Leonard $10,900 $10,100 1.22 33.4 3.8 40.6 4.6 30.9% -2.2% 23 1.54
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,300 $6,700 0.96 32.4 4.1 31.1 -4.9 24.0% -6.2% 27 -0.16
David Lee $3,300 $4,100 0.92 18.7 2.1 17.2 -3.5 17.3% -6.3% 26 1.25
Patty Mills $3,900 $3,800 0.79 21.9 -0.2 17.2 -2.6 21.8% -0.4% 25 N/A
Pau Gasol $4,700 $4,300 1.06 25.4 -1.5 26.9 -9.9 21.5% -5.4% 26 N/A
Manu Ginobili $2,700 $3,100 0.84 18.7 -3.5 15.7 -5.2 22.0% -4.7% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Tony Parker, David Lee, Pau Gasol, Patty Mills

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).