NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, October 30th - Page 2
Charlotte at Houston
| Charlotte | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 204.5 |  | Vegas | 204.5 | |||||||
| Spread | 12.5 | Spread | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Pace | 94.03 | Pace | 98.64 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 22 | 26 | 21 | 25 | 22 | Season | 19 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 24 | |
| Last10 | 27 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 26 | Last10 | 11 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 21 | |
| Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson | Lin-Harden-Parsons-Howard-Asik | |||||||||||
Charlotte
The Bobcats bring back the same starting five with the exception of one big addition, Al Jefferson. Jefferson is a great low post scorer that will really help this offense. They can dump it in to Big Al and he can score on his own. He is also a nice pick and pop type of player that could work well with Kemba Walker. This team is still very young, but they are going to be an exciting team to watch. They will likely be very inconsistent night in and night out, but there should be a few players that are of note to us fantasy players.
The matchup for the Bobcats couldn’t get any better as the Rockets had the fastest pace of play of all NBA teams last season with an average of 96 possessions per 48 minutes. That means that the Bobcats are going to get a few extra possessions than they normally do. A blowout is a real possibility in this game, however, I think that affects the Rockets player’s values more than the Bobcats. One note before the picks, Big Al is questionable so keep your eye on that.
Players to Target
- *Kemba Walker – Walker is the engine of this team and he is the type of player that excels in uptempo style games. He is great off of the dribble and can create his own shot if needed. I really think that having Jefferson in the post will help clear the lane for Walker this season because teams won’t be able to help on defense nearly as often. I expect the Bobcats to get down early and for Kemba to take over offensively. You can’t find a better GPP play tonight than Walker.
- *Gerald Henderson – Henderson has the tough task of guarding James Harden, but on the positive side, he gets to go against Harden on the other side of the floor. Harden is not a great defender by any stretch of the imagination. Henderson is often the forgotten player on the Bobcats, but he should have a nice game tonight.
Houston
The Rockets landed big man Dwight Howard and are basically telling their fans that they are going all in. While I don’t think that this is a championship caliber team, they are sure going to be fun to watch. They were the fastest paced team last season and will likely be that again this season. One thing to note besides the Howard acquisition is that Jeremy Lin has lost his starting PG duties to Patrick Beverley. This is a great chance for you to take advantage while the pricing on him is wrong.
The matchup for the Rockets is very favorable. The Bobcats ranked in the bottom half of the league against every position last season and haven’t exactly gotten better on the defensive side of the ball. Look for the Rockets to put up 110+ points tonight.
Players to Target
- *Dwight Howard – Tempted to go with Harden here, but Howard is around the same price and I’m expecting the Rockets to welcome him to the team by giving him the ball over and over again. Howard is one of the few players in the league that can have an average night and still end up with 20 points and 10 rebounds. I expect Dwight to get back to being a dominant force on defense and I don’t think a 20, 12, and 5 block performance is out of the question.
- *Patrick Beverley – Beverley is almost minimum salary on sites across the board and he is the starting PG on the highest scoring team in the league. Take him and thank me later.
Orlando at Minnesota
| Orlando | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 197.0 |  | Vegas | 197.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 9.5 | Spread | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Pace | 94.48 | Pace | 95.22 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 26 | 23 | 5 | 24 | 5 | Season | 27 | 16 | 25 | 12 | 27 | |
| Last10 | 25 | 21 | 2 | 20 | 11 | Last10 | 28 | 11 | 28 | 22 | 18 | |
| Nelson-Afflalo-Harkless-Nicholson-Vucevic | Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic | |||||||||||
Orlando
We broke down the Magic’s team last night and watched them lose a pretty close game to the Pacers. Moe Harkless was letdown last night, but he got into foul trouble early and had to sit out a lot of the game. Look for him to bounce back nicely tonight against the Wolves. I really liked what I saw out of Jameer Nelson, he was aggressive and it looks like this Magic team is going to go as Jameer goes.
The matchup tonight against the Wolves is good for the PG and SG, but bad for the other 3 positions. The combo of Love and Pekovic in the middle makes me want to stay far away from the Magic big men tonight.
Players to Target
- *Jameer Nelson – Nelson played well last night and didn’t look rusty at all after sitting out most of the preseason. I love his matchup against Ricky Rubio who is one of the worst on ball defenders in the NBA. Look for Nelson to attack him and make plays for his teammates as the Wovles defenders come to help. I expect Nelson to put up around 15 and 8 tonight with a couple of steals.
Minnesota
The Wolves have their All-Star PF back in Kevin Love and they can finally get back to building their team around him. He looked good in the preseason and should continue right where he left off before he got hurt last season. The Wolves also added two nice pieces in Corey Brewer and Kevin Martin. They will give Rubio plenty of options as he is slicing through the defense.
The matchup is a favorable one for the Wolves. The Magic’s frontcourt is very shorthanded and the likes of Maxiell, Vucevic, and Nicholson are going to have a very hard time stopping Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic.
Players to Target
- *Kevin Love – Love is back and he looks like he’s back to full strength. While I usually like to wait a couple of games to make sure the injury doesn’t come back, the matchup is too good for me to ignore him. Look for Love to start off the season with a monster double-double against that weak interior defense of the Magic.
- *Ricky Rubio – Rubio will not be a popular pick tonight, but I love him in GPP’s. He is a player that can fill the stat sheet and can get 5+ steals on any night which can be a huge boost to his fantasy point total. He has plenty of weapons to work with and Jameer isn’t a great defender.
Indiana at New Orleans
| Indiana | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 187.0 |  | Vegas | 187.0 | |||||||
| Spread | -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Pace | 92.84 | Pace | 90.86 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 15 | 17 | 24 | 11 | 17 | Season | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Last10 | 26 | 5 | 18 | 28 | 10 | Last10 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 3 | 5 | |
| Hill-Stephenson-Granger-West-Hibbert | Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Stiemsma | |||||||||||
Indiana
The Pacers had a rocky start to their season. They got up big against the Magic, then got down, then made a run at the end to put them away. Both Paul George and Roy Hibbert came out of that game a bit banged up but it sounds like they should be good to go for tonight’s game against the Pelicans who have quite a few new faces on their team.
The matchup for the Pacers doesn’t look great. Vegas expects this game to be low scoring and both big men of the Pelicans are good defenders. George Hill also has a tough matchup against Jrue Holiday who has become known as one of the best defending PG’s in basketball.
Players to Target
- *Paul George – George and Stephenson are really the only two Pacers that I would consider taking tonight and even the matchup for them isn’t that great. George is always a decent play thanks to his ability to fill up the stat sheet especially in the blocks and steals category.
New Orleans
The Pelicans have a new look and a new group of team members. Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, and Greg Stiemsma are all new to the team this year and should all be productive in their roles. Eric Gordon is also back this season, but for how long we won’t know as he has become one of the most injury prone players out there.
The Pacers are one of the best defensive teams in the league and like I said, this game is expected to be low scoring. With so many new faces, the easy choice here is to just fade the Pelicans altogether and take players that you know can produce.
Atlanta at Dallas
| Atlanta | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 196.0 |  | Vegas | 196.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Pace | 94.72 | Pace | 96.25 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 13 | 30 | 23 | 22 | 18 | Season | 20 | 13 | 15 | 21 | 8 | |
| Last10 | 13 | 29 | 19 | 13 | 14 | Last10 | 23 | 10 | 26 | 19 | 8 | |
| Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford | Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert | |||||||||||
Atlanta
The Hawks lost Josh Smith in the offseason, but they did manage to bring in two ex-Jazz players in Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll. I don’t see Carroll having much fantasy appeal, but Millsap has always been a very productive player and he should fit in nicely in that frontcourt with Al Horford. Both players have a pretty decent mid-range game and Millsap has some good post moves. The backcourt for the Hawks isn’t going to be challenging for the title of best backcourt, but both Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver are good players.
The Hawks open their season in Dallas and if you look at the DvP rankings from last season, the Mavericks really struggled on defense. The worst part is that their defense may have gotten worse with the acquisitions of Jose Calderon and Monta Ellis.
Players to Target
- *Paul Millsap – I don’t love the matchup for Horford tonight. Dalembert has always been a good post defender, so I’m giving Millsap a slight edge here. Millsap will be locked up with Nowitzki most of the night which will be a favorable matchup for both sides offensively.
Dallas
The Mavericks added 3 new starters this season: Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon, and Samuel Dalembert. All 3 of them are good players, but they have all been on losing teams for most of their careers. The Mavericks are not headed in the right direction and Dirk’s quest for another title seems like a longshot at this point. Vegas has this game as a fairly high scoring game though and Dallas is favored so from a fantasy perspective, the Mavericks aren’t in a bad spot.
Players to Target
- *Monta Ellis – Ellis is always a risk because of his inconsistent nature, but he can put points on the board in a hurry and he has the best matchup on the floor. Kyle Korver has never been known for his defense and I don’t think that is going to change anytime soon. I think Monta will play well in his first game with the Mavs.
Memphis at San Antonio
| Memphis | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 189.0 |  | Vegas | 189.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 5.0 | Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Pace | 91.15 | Pace | 96.36 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 11 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 19 | Season | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | |
| Last10 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 14 | 16 | Last10 | 16 | 6 | 25 | 9 | 4 | |
| Conley-Allen-Pondexter-Randolph-Gasol | Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter | |||||||||||
Memphis
The Grizzlies bring back the same team as they had last season and get to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. These two teams always play each other very tough and I don’t expect tonight to be any different. The Grizzlies starting five consists of Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Tayshaun Prince, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol.
The matchup with the Spurs is very favorable as a whole because the Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the league. That should give the Grizzlies more opportunities on the offensive side of the ball. Last season, the Spurs weren’t great at defending Centers and that’s where I will be looking tonight.
Players to Target
- *Marc Gasol – Gasol always plays well against the Spurs and loves to guard Tim Duncan on the other end of the floor. Gasol is one of the few big men that can get you 5 assists any night of the season and he is one of the best defenders in the game so you will typically get the added bonus of a couple of blocked shots or steals. Gasol is a low risk, medium reward option at center tonight.
San Antonio
The Spurs were also quiet in the offseason as they bring back the same group of guys that made it all the way to a game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Spurs are always a tough team to predict because 1. Popovich is their coach and makes crazy decisions time and time again and 2. The Spurs have so many different players that contribute that it becomes hard to predict when we are talking about a single night of basketball.
The matchup against the Grizzlies is very poor. The Grizzlies had a top 3 defense last season and were great at defending every position. I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to take a shot on Tony Parker tonight, but the matchup tells me to stay away from all Spurs and that’s exactly what I will be doing.
Players to Target