Updated NBA Futures Odds, Round 1 Series Prices & Best Bets
The NBA Playoffs are set following the Portland Trail Blazer’s win over the Memphis Grizzlies in the league’s first ever play-in game. Entering the NBA bubble with +7000 odds to win the Western Conference, the Blazers, led by Damian Lillard, are now as short as +1500 at online sportsbooks to represent West in the 2020 NBA Finals.
Of course, they’ll have to get past LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round before they do anything.
Aside from Portland’s rise to the 8-seed in the Western Conference, the playoff seeding largely played out as expected prior to the NBA’s Covid-induced hiatus.
With updated NBA futures odds and Round 1 series prices out, let’s look at best bets for all 16 playoff teams.
2020 NBA Playoff Betting Odds for Today
Western Conference Round 1 Odds & Best Bets
No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers
Series Prices
Lakers -550 (PointsBet)
Trail Blazers +400 (PointsBet)
Futures — Odds to Win NBA Championship
Lakers +325 (PointsBet)
Trail Blazers +6000 (PointsBet)
Thanks to the timely return of Jusuf Nurkic and the superb play of Damian Lillard, the Trail Blazers have gone 7-3 since the restart, moving to the eighth spot in the West despite starting 3.5 games behind the Grizzlies when the NBA resumed played on July 30.
Lillard is playing at historic levels, not just for him but for anyone during the final stretch of a regular season.
It’s why their Western Conference futures odds have shortened dramatically, even though they’re matched up against the favorites in Round 1.
And obviously it’s not just their conference title odds that have moved; on July 21, one week before the official restart, Portland was +21000 (210-to-1) to win the NBA Finals. Today, they’re as short as +3000.
The Blazers are playing the best offensive basketball in the league with Nurkic back in the lineup, but their defense has been horrid. And as exciting as it is to watch and root for Dame & Co., their defense (or lack thereof) is why they might not win a game in their upcoming series gainst King James and Anthony Davis.
If you can’t resist the red hot Blazers, then head to PointsBet where they’re +6000 to win the NBA Championship.
If you’re looking to make money, however, it’s time to get out your broomsticks and bet on a Lakers sweep. The Lakers have looked a bit rusty in the bubble but James and Davis will have their team ready to play this week. When they’re ready, the Blazers are no match for the purple and gold.
With the hype surrounding Portland, Lillard and Nurkic, we might have found some value. I’ll also be targeting the Over on the point totals in the early games of the series, which is 229.5 for Game 1.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Lakers 4-0 +360 at FanDuel Sportsbook
No. 2 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks
Series Prices
Clippers -500 (FanDuel)
Mavericks +450 (FOX Bet)
Futures — Odds to Win NBA Championship
Clippers +325 (PointsBet)
Mavericks +5000 (BetMGM)
Two of the league’s most respected veterans in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George versus the league’s most feared European duo, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Between the four players, the Mavericks and Clippers are the only teams in the league with duos who average at least 25 ppg individually.
The Dallas Mavericks return to the playoffs after a three-year hiatus thanks to a stellar sophomore season for Doncic. Don’t take the point guard as a stranger to big stages, though. As an 18-years-old, the Slovenian led Real Madrid to the 2018 EuroLeague title, winning the EuroLeague MVP as well as the Final Four MVP.
With the addition of Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks put together the most efficient offense in NBA history by averaging 115.9 points per every 100 possessions. Their offense has been slightly better in the bubble, though that’s been the case for nearly everyone. Now they face their toughest test yet, a three-headed defensive monster made of Patrick Beverley, Paul George and two-time Defensive Player of the Year, Kawhi Leonard. There are 11 NBA All-Defensive First or Second Teams between the trio.
Dallas is 0-3 against the Clippers this season, including an overtime loss in the bubble on Aug. 6. In their Nov. 26 meeting, the Clippers forced Doncic into more turnovers than he had field goals or assists in a 99-114 loss, arguably his worst performance of the season. Their second meeting was much closer but the Mavericks fell short 107-110.
Both Beverley and Porzingis have been listed on the teams’ injury reports but each are expected to be playoff-ready
When it comes down to it, the Mavericks’ defense is too poor to allow the imagination for an upset. However, the most efficient offense in NBA history can’t be totally ignored.
With that said, I don’t want to bet on a series price here. Instead, expecting Clippers’ head coach Doc River to rotate his three best defenders to exhaust the 21-year-old phone every time the ball is in his hands, I’m focused on betting the Under on Doncic’s points props during this series.
While the Lakers are favorites to win the title at most online sports betting sites, SuperBook USA gives the Clippers the nod. Also putting the Clippers ahead of the pack in terms of odds to win the NBA title is Nate Silver’s FiverThirtyEight, which gives the Clippers a 30 percent chance (Implied Odds: +233) compared to 22 percent for the Bucks and 21 percent for the Lakers. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions say the Clippers have a 43 percent chance (Implied Odds: +133) of representing the West in the Finals.
I have a futures bet on Lakers +700 to win the 2020 NBA Championship from last summer, so I’m covering more bases by betting the Clippers at each of these prices. If you’re looking for a futures bet to place, it may not be the sexiest but it’s likely the most realistic value bet you’ll find.
Best Bets: Clippers +133 to Win Western Conference at BetMGM; +325 to Win NBA Finals; Under 230 Total Points (GM 1); Luca Doncic Under 29.5 Points (GM1);
No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Utah Jazz
Series Prices
Nuggets -265 (FanDuel)
Jazz +220 (DraftKings)
Futures — Odds to Win NBA Championship
Nuggets +2500
Jazz +5000
The Jazz, who were already lacking depth without the presence of Bojan Bogdanovic in Orlando, now have to survive their first-round playoff series against the Nuggets without Mike Conley. Conley posted 20+ points in four of the six he played before departing the bubble for the birth of his child.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have seemingly unleashed “(player-popup #michael-porter-jr)Michael Porter Jr, as he scored 27 points in his second game in the bubble followed by individual performances of 30, 27, 23 points. In fact, those are Porter’s four best games in his young career.
The Nuggets are a tough matchup for the Jazz, a team that will struggle to make noise with a shorthanded band. I don’t mind backing the Nuggets -265 at FanDuel Sportsbook considering they’re as steep as -300 at other online sportsbooks.
Best Bet: Jazz -265 at FanDuel
No. 4 Houston Rockets vs. No. 5 Oklahoma City Thunder
Series Prices
Houston Rockets -149 (PointsBet)
Thunder +123 (PointsBet)
Futures — Odds to Win NBA Championship
Houston Rockets +1400 (DK)
Thunder +8000 (BetMGM)
This matchup might be the most interesting in both its NBA betting odds and storylines. Let’s start with the storylines.
The Oklahoma City Thunder were presumed to be rebuilding after trading Russell Westbrook to the Houston Rockets for Chris Paul. Well, Paul had other plans.
Under Paul’s leadership, the Thunder are in better shape than they were a season ago, which is a testament to the point guard’s greatness. Now he has a chance at revenge against an organization, and teammate, he left on bad terms.
The Thunder opened as roughly +300 underdogs across the sports betting industry, but with Russell Westbrook out to begin the series, the line quickly moved making the Rockets merely -150 favorites. Oklahoma City is actually favored in Game 1 by two points.
If we were still getting Thunder +300 that would be one thing, but right now the value is on Houston. As good as Paul and the Thunder defense are, they’re going to have a tough time keeping up with the Rockets’ three-point explosion.
For what it’s worth, if you’re picking the Thunder to beat the Rockets then you probably see value in Thunder +8000 to win the NBA Championship, down from +10000 pre-bubble. They’re long odds for a reason, but these are unprecedented circumstances, and a first-round upset with either the Lakers or Clippers or both would really open things up for the team that advances.
Best Bet: Rockets -149 at PointsBet
Eastern Conference Round 1 Odds & Best Bets
No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic
Series Prices
Bucks -10000 (PointsBet)
Magic +1800 (PointsBet)
Futures — Odds to Win NBA Championship
Bucks +270 (BetMGM)
Magic +30000 (DraftKings)
Giannis Antetokounmpo returns from his one-game suspension after head-butting the Wizards’ Mo Wagner. Even without Antetokounmpo, the Bucks could handle the Orlando Magic, who are missing Jonathan Isaac to a torn a ACL. That doesn’t mean I want to lay -10000. In the off-chance catastrophe strikes, I’ll pass on this one.
Best Bet: Pass
No. 2 Toronto Raptors vs No. 7 Brooklyn Nets
Series Prices
Raptors -3333 (PointsBet)
Nets +1400 (DraftKings)
Futures — Odds to Win NBA Championship
Raptors +1200
Nets +30000
The Raptors weren’t able to convince Kawhi to stick around after bringing the city its first NBA championship, yet again they’re in the position to contend for the Eastern Conference title.
Things will certainly be more difficult than they were a season ago, but the series against the Nets shouldn’t stir up too much trouble.
Continuing his ascension from the Raptors’ 2019 Championship run, Pascal Siakam has stepped up in Leonard’s absence, averaging 23 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.
With so many players out for Brooklyn, we’ve watched much of their offense facilitated through the guard play of Caris Levert. As a result, Levert enters the playoffs on the heels of a 37-point performance against the Trail Blazers and 27 points against the Clippers. I expect that to continue against a tough Raptors defense.
Best Bet: Caris Levert Over 24.5 points (GM 1) at DraftKings
No. 3 Boston Celtics vs. No. 6 Philadelphia 76ers
Series Prices
Celtics -357 (DraftKings)
Sixers +315 (PointsBet)
Futures — Odds to Win NBA Championship
Celtics +1600 (PointsBet)
Sixers +6000 (FOX Bet)
The Philadelphia 76ers are without Ben Simmons, losing their star point guard and lockdown defender to a left knee injury. Without Simmons, the Sixers still have a little bit of hope.
They’ll need Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Al Horford to step up in big ways if they want to pull off an upset against a loaded Celtics squad that features Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward.
Especially Embiid.
Embiid poses precisely the type of threat that the Celtics fear most: a big man who can ball.
With center Al Horford swapping jerseys during free agency, the Celtics have become vulnerable down low. Starting center Daniel Theis is undersized and Enes Kanter is an absolute liability defensively.
Philadelphia showed Boston the kind of force Embiid can be back in December when the big man dropped 38 points, reached the foul line for 14 free throws, and added 13 boards in a 115-109 Sixers win. Philadelphia finished 3-1 against the Celtics during the season.
I’m bullish enough on Embiid and the Sixers that I could talk myself into betting on this one going this distance. Ultimately I think the Celtics walk away with the W, but at FOX Bet Celtics 4-3 +500 & Sixers 4-3 +700 is of more value than the +300 Seven Game Series line.
And while this matchup is scary for the Celtics, albeit less so with Simmons absent, Boston has the talent to contend as an underdog of sorts in the East.
Boston has played well in the bubble, and if you look at their net rating for the season they’re ahead of the Raptors and tied with the Clippers. Again turning to FiveThirtyEight, the Celtics have a 26 percent chance of winning the Eastern Conference and an 11 percent chance of winning the Finals, implied odds of +285 and +800. We can grab +550 and +1600 on the Celtics, respectively, at PointsBet.
Best Bets: Celtics +550 to Win Eastern Conference & +1600 to win NBA Finals at PointsBet.
No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Miami Heat
Series Prices
Pacers +254 (PointsBet)
Heat -303 (BetMGM)
Futures — Odds to Win NBA Championship
Pacers +10000
Heat +3000
The offenses in this one won’t be as exciting as the matchup between rivals Jimmy Butler and T.J. Warren. In fact, with an Over/Under of 215.5, its tied with the Jazz-Nuggets for the lowest projected point total of the eight games scheduled Monday and Tuesday. To see why, just look at their pace of play: Indiana 22nd & Miami 27th.
The Pacers’ Victor Oladipo has been erratic but T.J. Warren elevated his game through during two weeks leading up to the playoffs, enough so to make him a candidate for Bubble MVP.
Unfortunately there’s still no word on Domantas Sabonis, Jerem Lamby continues to rehab an ACL injury, and Warren is dealing with plantar fasciitis, which could slow the forward down when the Pacers need him most.
Miami, meanwhile, is one of the deepest teams in the league and look to fatigue the Pacers with constant, repleting energy off the bench.
I’m not betting against a vengeful Jimmy Butler and I’m not betting on an injury-riddled Pacers squad.
Best Bet: Heat -303 at BetMGM
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images