NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, November 1st
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Because it’s early in the season, it’s difficult to put much weight into many of the numbers collected so far. Things like DvP really can’t be trusted at this point in the season unless they align with what we saw last year for a team that didn’t really change much. The tool I do think we can look at, however, is Ceiling and Consistency. Rosters have changed, teams have new coaches, and players have new roles, and I’m more interested in what’s happening right now as opposed to what happened last season. I want to know which players have a high probability of giving me a solid return on my DraftKings dollars, and which players simply aren’t worth the investment.
Point Guard: Tim Frazier, New Orleans Pelicans, $5,900
If we take a look at the attached chart, which is sorted by the percentage of the time a player has reached 6x (6 DK points per $1000), we can see that Tim Frazier and Damian Lillard are leading the way. This shouldn’t come as much surprise as Lillard has been playing phenomenally while acting as the clear number one option for Portland while Frazier has done an admirable job filling in as the Pelicans’ starting point guard, putting up big fantasy lines just as he did at the end of last season. Both are phenomenal plays today and will likely be the first two players I put in my cash game lineup. Both have good matchups, and we should see Lillard put on a show against a Warriors team that hasn’t looked good on defense and has no rim protection.
However, in a per dollar sense, Frazier has the edge. If there were a 7x column in the table, Frazier would be at 66% (with one justifiably poor outing against the Spurs on the road), and Lillard would be at 0%. There’s almost no chance Frazier finishes with more raw points than Lillard, but daily fantasy is about maximizing every dollar of your salary cap, and with that in mind, Frazier is the top play.
Shooting Guard: Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic, $6,000
Shooting guard is often a tough position to fill. When we look at the chart, which is sorted by 5x, we see guys like Nik Stauskas and Allen Crabbe near the top. This is a good example of not blindly trusting any one tool as these players carry significant dud risk and are only suitable for tournament lineups. The players I’m most interested in is Evan Fournier. It doesn’t seem to matter who the coach in Orlando is as Fournier played heavy minutes under Scott Skiles and is doing the same with Frank Vogel in charge. The Magic traded Victor Oladipo away and paid Fournier, so it’s very clear they think he’s a big part of their future.
I realize he only has a 67% mark at 3x value, but that’s one bad game, and it was a blowout loss on the road to Detroit. We have to just ignore things like that, especially when today’s matchup is a road game against the Sixers. This one is likely to stay close considering both teams aren’t very good. We should Fournier play nearly 40 minutes, and I’m giving him a floor of 30 DK points (5x) in this one. He’s a terrific cash game play.
Small Forward: Justise Winslow, Miami Heat, $5,200
Winslow is playing big minutes for Miami, recently logging 39 against the Spurs. With Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh gone, Winslow has taken on much more responsibilities on the offensive end of the floor. As long as he remains in this $5000 range, he’ll be cash game viable on a nightly basis given he’s locked into heavy minutes and contributes in a variety of ways. As we can see from the table, Winslow has finished 6x or better in two of three games, just missing 5x in the other. I suspect that after tonight, we’ll see that 5x rise to 75% with a good chance of 6x as well.
The Kings are not the same fantasy goldmine they were last season. Head coach Dave Joerger is not George Karl. He has his players playing hard on the defensive end, and they’re not pushing the pace like they did last season. Rajon Rondo being gone is a big part of that as well. However, it’s important to realize that Winslow is a guy who’s going to produce night in and night out because of his role on the team. As we progress deeper into the season, the Ceiling and Consistency tool will see players like this rise to the top when we sort by 5x.
It’s also worth mentioning that I like Matt Barnes tonight at just $3900. He’s been a playmaker off the bench, taking the lead for the second unit and seeing around 30 minutes per night. He’s too cheap relative to what he offers, and his one dud this season is simply a fluke that I’m not worried about.
Power Forward: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans, $10,800
Apologies in advance if Davis leaves the game in the first quarter with some sort of injury. At least you’ll be in good company as his ownership should be through the roof across the industry tonight. Sure, Gorgui Dieng looks like the more consistent option, but he hasn’t had to play the Spurs in San Antonio yet. I just ignore horrible matchups like that as it’s nearly impossible for anyone to succeed on the road against an elite defensive team. With Davis, we have to look beyond just what the table is telling us.
First off, if there were a 7x column, he’d have a value of 66% there. If there were a 9x column, he’d be at 33%. We’re talking about a $10,800 player who has absolutely crushed value in two of the three games this season while dropping a dud in what is essentially an impossible matchup. Tonight, he gets a Bucks team that starts an undersized Jabari Parker at the four and Miles Plumlee at the five with Greg Monroe (a noted poor defender) seeing heavy run off the bench. Yea, good luck with The Brow tonight guys. There is absolutely no chance I’m fading Davis tonight in cash games, and I’d probably go overweight with him if I were making multiple tournament lineups as there will be plenty of people looking to go contrarian by playing the fade.
Center: Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota Timberwolves, $6,200
Thank you multiple position eligibility. The aforementioned Dieng can easily be slotted into a center position that I think is rather gross tonight. You can also use Davis at your center position as well, so please keep that in mind. If we look at the chart, it’s pretty clear that, at least after two games, Dieng has been a very good investment. He’s exceeded 6x both times, and given his heavy minutes load and the fact that he contributes in every category, he’s a safe cash game option in good matchups. Karl-Anthony Towns will have to contend with plus defender Marc Gasol, leaving Dieng with the likes of JaMychal Green and Zach Randolph. These are not players I’m worried about, and given Dieng already has 40 fantasy points outing against this same Grizzlies squad this season, he’s almost a lock to make to into my cash game lineup tonight.