NBA Starting Five - CourtIQ: Wednesday
The Starting Five series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
It’s that time of year, where injury news is predominant around the NBA. It seems like the value plays never open up until 4 or 5 P.M., so being around to adjust to late news is paramount. Since the value plays will come later, I figured I would focus the Starting Five article today on some mid-to-high range plays that stick out. I also decided it would be nice to demo the new CourtIQ tool here at RotoGrinders.
Hopefully this article is both informative in helping you set your lineups tonight but also educational on the mechanics of the new tool. Enjoy!
Point Guard – Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics
Let’s get our feet wet with a simple case. Boston is dealing with a few injuries right now, leaving Kelly Olynyk and Jae Crowder out of commission. As you can see in the chart, Isaiah Thomas is a go-to option in their absence, seeing a bump in usage to 33% when both of those players are off the floor. It is a small bump from his overall rate of 29.1%, but it is a bump nonetheless.
Boston is thin on the perimeter with Marcus Smart now in the starting lineup, so Thomas is also going to see additional minutes along with that additional usage. That’s a good combination, and tonight’s game promises to be a high-scoring affair with the Thunder.
Shooting Guard – Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
Now, let’s pivot to Chicago, where Derrick Rose is a game-time decision for tonight and Pau Gasol has already been ruled out.
If we take those two players off the floor, Jimmy Butler runs the show in Chicago with a 34% usage rate. Despite having a “minutes limit” on Monday, he still played over 30 minutes against the Raptors.
Butler is locked and loaded as a fine option at the shooting guard position, especially if Derrick Rose doesn’t play again tonight.
Small Forward – Matt Barnes, Memphis Grizzlies
No team has been ravaged by injuries more than the Grizzlies. Look at all those players we have to take off the floor (granted, some have been traded). The sample size is not large with all those players off the court, but the nuts and bolts of it boils down to the fact that Memphis doesn’t have many healthy bodies. Barnes has a 25% usage rate in the small sample with those other players off the floor, and he is one of the last men standing on the wings.
Perhaps the biggest boost here goes to Lance Stephenson, and you can definitely use him tonight, as well, if he happens to suit up. The Grizzlies desperately need him in this one in order to field a competitive roster. They are fighting for playoff positioning and do have a winnable game here at home against the Timberwolves.
Power Forward – Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
If the Grizzlies get the nod as the most injury-ravaged team in the league, the #2 spot goes to the Pelicans. Eric Gordon, Norris Cole, Bryce Dejean Jones, and Tyreke Evans have all been out, leaving the offense in shambles.
The show runs through Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis in their absence, as both have usage rates north of 30% with those circumstances present. That is a 3-5% bump for both players, and they too see in increase in minutes with everyone else out.
When you combine the increased minutes with the increased usage, you get a lot more upside in your plays. Oh, and did I mention that the Pelicans play the up-tempo, defensively-challenged Kings tonight? All aboard!
Center – DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
For this last one, I changed things up a bit to focus on fantasy points per 36 minutes. There has been some discussion about whether or not DeAndre Jordan truly benefits with Blake Griffin being out. After all, Jordan does not create his own shot. His usage rate does climb from 8% to 12% with Griffin off the floor, and his fantasy points also rise. As you can see from this chart, Jordan averages 39.28 fantasy points per 36 minutes when Griffin is off the floor. If you change the filter to reflect Griffin and Jordan ON the floor, that number is four fantasy points less. A boost is a boost, and we will take any edge we can get.
The Clippers also draw a matchup in an up-tempo game against Dwight Howard and the Rockets tonight, and hopefully Jordan is able to put up a double-double in this one.