NBA Starting Five: Monday, March 14th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at one of my favorite tools the NBA Trending Stats Watch.
There have been a ton of injuries over the past week, so this is a great tool to see who has seen the uptick in production due to those injuries. We’ll use DraftKings pricing and in particular will look at “FPTS” tab to see who has seen a recent bump in fantasy production. I also like to use this tool in conjunction with the Defense vs Position Tool to see which players have the combination of elevated minutes and production to go with a great matchup.
Point Guard: Ray McCallum, $3,000
There is a cluster of value point guards today because guys like Shelvin Mack and the New Orleans PG have all seen a recent uptick in production. We’re still waiting on word on the status of Norris Cole regarding the New Orleans PG position and if a guy like Dwyane Wade sits, that opens up Goran Dragic for big usage. That’s not even counting the upper tier PGs like Westbrook and Curry tonight. That leaves some tough decisions at PG today and on some sites the value PG are all priced close together.
However on DK, McCallum is priced at the bare minimum, while the prices of Mack and even Toney Douglas have really jumped, so the choice at value PG is much easier. The Grizzlies just signed him so he didn’t start last game, but it’s certainly possible that he starts down the road.
McCallum played 26 minutes in his first game with Memphis and due to all of their injuries, his minutes should be secure, even if he comes off the bench. He put up 27.5 DK points, which is elite production at his bare minimum price point, and now will face a up-tempo Houston team that doesn’t play a lot of defense.
Shooting Guard: Devin Booker, $6,500
His price jumped a few days ago which scared some people off of him. However, he’s just kept on producing huge games, and averaged 41 DK points last week, which is 21 above his season average. He’s not cheap anymore at $6,500, but last week he still easily paid off that salary. Brandon Knight started last game, so there are some concerns about usage, but Booker still played 37 minutes and got up 19 FGA in that game.
The Suns are really excited about their young rookie, so I am expecting them to continue to run sets for him and get him quality minutes, even with the return of Knight. He’s a guy who could even benefit from Knight’s return because an extra creator could help find more open looks, and he’s a an elite shooter. This Minnesota/Phoenix game is set at a total of 219 points and I really like both young SG in this matchup because neither Booker or Zach LaVine have shown much defense this season.
Small Forward: TBD
I have SF listed as TBD because I had Lance Stephenson listed and right before I was about to post the article, he was listed as questionable with a wrist injury. If he plays and is under no restrictions, he looks like a great option, even with his price bump. He averaged 32 DK PPG over the past week and has taken on a playmaking role with Mike Conley and Zach Randolph out. Vince Carter is also listed as questionable, so Matt Barnes and Tony Allen are also potential options. Each produced a big game last week, but then disappointed in their next game. Neither typically presents huge upside so I view their huge games as outliers, but they both have the ability to stuff the stat sheet and produce in that 25 to 30 DK point range. I’m leaning towards Barnes over Allen because Houston has really struggled against SF and he’s averaging 29.6 DK PPG against Houston this year.
The other reason that this position is still TBD is that Dwyane Wade is a GTD and if he sits, Luol Deng is a guy that deserves a heavy bump if Wade is out. Overall there are several potential options in this $5,000 to $6,000 range but we are going to have to wait to see how the injuries shake out.
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki, $6,600
JaMychal Green is coming off of a dud, but has otherwise been very good with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol out. He’s certainly in play but I wanted to hit on someone else at this position that may go overlooked. Dirk is often thought of as a guy with no upside, but he’s averaging 37 DK PPG over the past three weeks and 40 DK PPG over the past week.
The Mavericks are on a five-game losing streak and are desperate for a win to maintain their playoff spot, so Dirk’s minutes have been elevated recently. He’s played 35 minutes in three of his last four games, and despite his production and minute increase, is still just $6,600. The matchup is also there tonight against a Charlotte team that has struggled against PF
Center: Karl-Anthony Towns, $7,900
We’ve listed some cheaper options at other positions, so we have some extra money to spend at center tonight. Based on that I’ll sort by total fantasy points:
Pau Gasol is out for tonight so scratch him off the list, but Hassan Whiteside, Karl-Anthony Towns and Dwight Howard have all been playing very well. For tournaments, Whiteside and Towns both carry more upside than Howard so that’s where I’m looking. Towns is playing in a game with a 219 total and has been seeing more run than Hassan so I’ll give him the slightest edge but both are great options in my eyes.