NBA Title Odds: Best Bets and Longshot Predictions for the 2021-22 Finals
The 2021 NBA season is here, and we couldn’t be more excited. So much has transpired in just a handful of months since the Milwaukee Bucks hoisted the Larry O’Brien trophy. We have seen blockbuster trades, major offseason signings, and a star-studded NBA Draft class. And while COVID-19 remains an unfortunate part of life, we have a ton to look forward to as basketball fans.
We’re already through the first week of the season, and before more games are played it’s worth asking: which teams can we expect to go all the way? The boring bettor in you may say “LeBron and the Lakers or bust.” But if it was that easy, we wouldn’t even have a postseason tournament, never mind NBA futures betting markets. No, there’s a tremendous amount of value to be had on the NBA Finals odds boards, none of which comes from the Los Angeles Lakers.
Let’s take a look at my best bets and favorite longshots to win the 2021-22 NBA Championship.
NBA Title Odds: The Favorites
Brooklyn Nets +240 (BetMGM)
If Kyrie Irving ever decides to get vaccinated, the Nets should be considered favorites to win it all this season. With perennial All-NBAs Kevin Durant and James Harden, they already have arguably the best duo in the NBA. Irving just takes them over the top, and offseason additions like sharpshooter Patty Mills should provide the extra punch Steve Nash’s squad was missing throughout an injury-plagued 2020-21 season. Despite all the challenges last year, Brooklyn was just inches away from an Eastern Conference Finals-clinching Durant jumper.
Milwaukee Bucks +850 (DraftKings)
Like so many Finals champions before them, the Bucks get little respect from sportsbooks just months after winning it all. Milwaukee brought back its entire starting five, as well as the majority of its key bench contributors, so I love the value we are getting at +900 here. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the most dominating big man in hoops, Khris Middleton is a silent assassin, and Jrue Holiday can take over on both sides of the floor. Adding to that, guard Donte Divincenzo seems to be getting healthy, and pesky new three-and-D guard Grayson Allen fits this team about as well as big men Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. There’s no reason to doubt Milwaukee’s chances at a repeat.
Golden State Warriors +1000 (PointsBet)
A bunch of my colleagues are picking the Lakers +350, but I’m not interested in that oddly-assembled squad beyond superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. No, I’m more interested in their neighbors to the north, the Golden State Warriors. While Rob Pelinka was building an Island of Washed-up Toys in LA, Bob Myers was making some very crafty roster additions to complement two-time MVP Steph Curry and perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Draymond Green. Shooting guard Jordan Poole looks poised for a breakout campaign, x-factor Andre Iguodala returns to the Dubs’ bench, Nmanja Bjelica provides Jokic-lite skills at the four-spot, and rookies Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody have as much promise as 2020 No. 2 pick James Wiseman. If small forward Andrew Wiggins and center Kevon Looney can take steps forward this year, and Klay Thompson gets healthy and reunites the Splash Brothers, this Warriors team is headed back to glory.
Best NBA Finals Longshots
Utah Jazz +1400 (PointsBet)
They were the best team in basketball last season, running a superb team offense on one end and playing lock-down defense on the other. Donovan Mitchell’s athleticism and scoring ability are impossible to contain, Mike Conley has found his All-Star form in Utah, and Rudy Gobert remains the most difficult defender to score on in the NBA. The Jazz also have above-average role players—three-and-D specialist Royce O’Neal, sharpshooting big man Bojan Bogdanovic, 2020 Sixth Man of the Year Jordan Clarkson, and Aussie Swiss Army Knife Joe Ingles, to name a few. With a genius-level coach in Quin Snyder, this team always has a chance to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Miami Heat +2600 (Caesars)
The Heat had one of the better offseasons in hoops, bringing in longtime Raptor point guard Kyle Lowry and lockdown-defensive big man P.J. Tucker. Just two years removed from an injury-plagued Finals loss to LeBron and the Lakers, Miami has a much better shot at championship glory than these odds suggest. All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have legit help now, and their young role players like sharpshooters Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are older and wiser. Widely regarded as the best coach in the NBA, Erik Spoelstra could finally win a chip without D-Wade.
Boston Celtics +5000 (Caesars)
Don’t call this Masshole a homer for making this pick—it could happen! The C’s have two top-10 talents in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (fight me), and two All-Defensive caliber game-changers in Marcus Smart and Robert Williams. By adding change-of-pace guard Dennis Schroeder, strong shooter and defender Josh Richardson, and long-lost, do-it-all big man Al Horford, old coach/new GM Brad Stevens has put this team in a great position to contend. New coach Ime Udoka could be just the man to navigate this franchise’s fresh start.
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