NBA Trend Blend: Friday, December 2nd
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Nine
Highest O/U
Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets – 222
Lowest O/U
Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers – 196
Highest Projected Total
Toronto Raptors – 112.5
Lowest Projected Total
Washington Wizards – 96.5
Largest Spread
Toronto Raptors – 10.5-point favorites over Los Angeles Lakers
Closest Spread
Denver Nuggets – 1.5-point favorites over Houston Rockets
Point Guard
Favorites
Chris Paul ($8,800 DK – $9,400 FD) – Paul finds himself in a great spot tonight. I prefer the discounted price tag on DK as opposed to FD, but he is in play on both sites. The Clippers played the Cavs last night, and ended up blowing Cleveland out. In that game, CP3 only played 25 minutes, which makes me feel far better about his prospects tonight. The Clippers are only 2.5-point road favorites in this one, so there is a strong chance of a competitive game (and more minutes) here. The Pelicans have been playing better team defense lately, and their DRtg/A has adjusted to prove that. This is a pace up spot for Paul and the Clippers, and the Pelicans are below average in terms of defending opposing PGs. Furthermore, the Pelicans have allowed the fourth most real life points to opposing PGs in the NBA along with the most attempted and made three point shots in the association. Paul is a cash game stud and should be able to meet value for us once again tonight. The upside is somewhat priced out on FD, however, especially considering the scoring differences between sites.
Rajon Rondo ($6,500 DK – $5,900 FD) – This is another instance of price discrepancy, but I feel that Rondo is priced fairly on DK and is underpriced on FD. He’s in play everywhere. Rondo has elevated his play recently since missing a few games with injury. In those five games, Rondo has exceeded 30 FPTS each time out, largely thanks to excellent assists and rebounding contributions. The Cavaliers grade out slightly below average in DRtg/A, and are the seventh best PG DvP matchup in the NBA. As a home underdog in a game that Vegas projects to be closely fought, Rondo is definitely on my radar tonight. Rondo has been a nightly triple double threat over the last week, and he should be able to put together a nice stat line for your lineups tonight, and probably at lower ownership.
Others worth mentioning
Kyle Lowry
Isaiah Thomas
Kyrie Irving
Emmanuel Mudiay
Jamal Murray
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Lou Williams ($5,800 DK – $5,200 FD) – Sweet Lou typically sees somewhere between 22 and 30 minutes per night regardless of game-flow. Lou gets to return to Toronto as a heavy underdog tonight. The Raptors are the largest favorites on the board, but again, that should not impact Lou’s minutes. The Raptors rank 20th in DRtg/A on the young season, though they do represent a pace down matchup for the Lakers. One major reason that Williams stands out to me tonight is because of his recent uptick in free throw attempts. He’s been more aggressive and assertive in attacking the basket of late, and that alone helps boost his floor. With Russell out for the foreseeable future, look for Lou to continue taking on more of a playmaking role. He’s a safe player to roster in this otherwise volatile spot.
Danny Green ($4,100 DK – $3,900 FD) – Full disclosure, I’m likely to spend up on James Harden tonight, but if you’re looking to go cheap at the position, I’ll make the case for Green. The Spurs are 9.5-point home favorites tonight as they face the struggling Wizards. Washington is 22nd in DRtg/A and are an above average SG DvP matchup for Green. Bradley Beal has been on an offensive tear lately, and Green will likely be assigned to slowing Beal down. Green is a capable defender, while Beal is more of a disinterested defender. I anticipate solid minutes for Green tonight as he does his best to slow down Beal. Green has always been good from the perimeter, and with a solid minutes projection, I like his chances of exceeding value in this spot tonight. Don’t anticipate 10x value, but 7x is certainly in play here.
Others worth mentioning
James Harden
Avery Bradley
Zach LaVine
Evan Fournier
Small Forward
Favorites
Danilo Gallinari ($5,800 DK – $6,000 FD) – Gallo returned from absence due to injury in his last game and ended up playing 36 minutes and scoring 17 real life points. While most of the attention has rightly been on Wilson Chandler, Gallo finds himself in the same spot and at a discounted price. This game has the highest projected total of the night, and the Nuggets have the second highest team total of the slate as well. The Rockets rank 26th in DRtg/A and in SF DvP, along with an above average pace. Gallo can catch fire from downtown, and the Rockets allow the fourth most made 3PAs in the NBA. Gallo should fly under the radar, but he’s in an excellent spot to crush value tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Jimmy Butler
LeBron James
Andrew Wiggins
Michael Gbinije (not really, just making sure you’re paying attention)
Power Forward
Favorites
Blake Griffin ($8,500 DK – $9,000 FD) – I had gone nearly two whole weeks without writing up Blake. We knew that streak had to come to an end sooner rather than later. Sure enough, Blake finds himself in a prime spot tonight. As mentioned, the Pelicans have improved in DRtg/A as a team, but they allow the fourth most FPTS to opposing PFs in the association. The Pelicans also allow the most rebounds and the most assists to opposing PFs. Blake is a do it all type of player, and ought to have ample opportunity to collect rebounds, points and assists tonight. The one concern here is potential foul trouble as he’ll likely deal with Anthony Davis on a frequent basis, but if he avoids foul problems, he should absolutely dominate on the offensive end. Griffin’s box scores from the last four games should keep his ownership down, but make no mistake – this is an elite spot for one of the elite power forwards in the game. The Vegas projection for this game is also extremely favorable, as the Clippers are narrow road favorites.
Kevin Love ($8,000 DK – $8,300 FD) – The Cavs face the Bulls tonight, in what Vegas expects to be a closely contested game. Love gets the fifth best PF DvP matchup in the NBA in this spot. The Bulls are an above average defensive team in terms of DRtg/A, but they’ve struggled to contain opposing PFs. These are two of the better rebounding teams in all of basketball, and Love is one of the best rebounders in basketball, but the Bulls are allowing the fifth most rebounds to opposing PFs in the NBA. You know that I love to find big men who are in favorable rebounding spots, and this is no exception. Taj Gibson is a fine player, but he will struggle to contain Love on the perimeter. LeBron will have to deal with Jimmy Butler tonight, which leaves Kyrie and Love in the most favorable spots for production tonight. I expect them both to perform well, though I slightly prefer Love due to the likely boost in peripheral statistics.
Others worth mentioning
Kristaps Porzingis
Kenneth Faried
Center
Favorites
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,700 DK – $10,900 FD) – Did anyone see the videos of Boogie mopping the floor in Philadelphia the other night? He desperately wanted to play. I fully expect Cousins to mop the floor once again tonight, only this time in a more metaphorical way. You know, like, “Boogie is going to mop the floor with these guys tonight.” Yeah, you got me? Now that I’ve made such an outlandish claim, allow me to back it up. The Celtics are the second worst rebounding team in the NBA. The Celtics are ranked 24th in DRtg/A. The Celtics are 29th in C DvP. DeMarcus Cousins has the third highest USG rate among all starting NBA players. DeMarcus Cousins has exceeded value in four straight games and seven of his last eight. DeMarcus Cousins is going to mop the floor with the Celtics frontcourt tonight.
Joel Embiid ($6,700 DK – $6,200 FD) – I shudder to think what Embiid could do with a 28-minute restriction as opposed to his previous restriction of 24 minutes. Embiid has the second highest USG rate among all NBA players, and tonight, he finds himself in a very favorable spot. Embiid should see plenty of Nikola Vucevic as well as Bismack Biyombo, and while Bismack is a better defender, neither guy has the athleticism to slow down Embiid. The Magic are also a bottom ten team in rebounding differential. The 76ers are two point home favorites here, and Embiid will play a large role in deciding the outcome of this game. Joel is averaging an insane 35 DK FPTS per 22.5 minutes. He should absolutely smash tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Karl Anthony-Towns
Dwight Howard
DeAndre Jordan
Tendencies To Exploit
Karl-Anthony Towns scored 80 FPTS in his last game in the same matchup. That “obviously” makes him a great play tonight, right? Mostly right. In actuality, the matchup is only slightly above average for KAT. We find situations like this on a regular basis. A player smashes in a matchup and we expect the same outcome to repeat itself simply because that’s how it played out last time, but that is rarely how things work. It’s sloppy and lazy research to look at a box score and to plug in a guy based on those reasons alone. Yes, KAT is a good play tonight. Is he the best play in a raw points sense or in a PPD sense? I would argue that he is not, though I also wouldn’t argue against using him either. Do your research, and build the best possible lineup that you can build.
Give me a shoutout on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.