NBA Trend Blend: Monday, November 14th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Eight
Highest O/U
Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets – 215.5
Lowest O/U
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz– 188
Highest Projected Total
Los Angeles Clippers – 114.5
Houston Rockets – 113.5
Lowest Projected Total
Miami Heat – 89.5
Memphis Grizzlies 90.75
Largest Spread
Los Angeles Clippers – 14.5-point home favorites over Brooklyn Nets
Closest Spread
Detroit Pistons 2.5-point favorites over Oklahoma City Thunder
Point Guard
Favorites
Isaiah Thomas ($7,800 DK – $8,100 FD) – Point Guard is a tricky position tonight (especially on FanDuel) with many good options, but no clear cut elite plays. Here’s why I like IT2. The Celtics and Pelicans are two teams who are playing poor defense to start the season (27th and 19th in DRtg/A). Vegas projects this game to stay close with Boston being 4.5-point road favorites. The Pelicans currently play at the 9th fastest pace in the NBA, while the Celtics are playing at a slightly slower pace than they did last season (this will be a pace up game for the C’s). The Pelicans are an average DvP matchup for Isaiah, but I’m content to take a point guard with the third highest usage rate among all starting point guards (behind only Westbrook and Harden) in a game that is expected to stay competitive throughout. There is some slight injury concern here as Thomas is listed as a game time decision, but he played through the finger jam in the last game, so I expect him to suit up and rock tonight.
Elfrid Payton ($5,600 DK – $5,400 FD) – Elf is a strong play tonight, though there are pros and cons here. We’ll start with the negatives – The Indiana Pacers represent a less than stellar PG DvP matchup as they rank 14th in that category thus far (not great, not bad). Elf is also coming off of a game last night, which is always somewhat concerning for a team as a whole. Vegas has this game as a seven point spread, which factors in the back to back issue. The positives are that the Pacers are currently 29th in DRtg/A as a team and they are playing at the second fastest pace in the NBA. This is exactly the type of game in which Elfrid can rack up assists and rebounds. If this game stays competitive, I wouldn’t be surprised if he flirts with a triple double. Understand that there is some risk here. With the up-tempo nature of this game, I think Elf can come close to meeting value on peripheral stats alone.
Others worth mentioning
James Harden – DK
Russell Westbrook
J.J. Barea
Ish Smith
Tyler Johnson – FD
Shooting Guard
Favorites
James Harden ($12,000 DK – $11,700 FD) – If I’m paying up for a stud tonight, it’s Harden. The 76ers are actually playing at a faster pace than the Rockets at this point in the season, so this game should bring a few extra possessions to Harden and the Rockets as well. There is some blowout risk any time the 76ers are one of the two teams playing, but the upside here is immense. The 76ers also represent the sixth best DvP matchup for point guards (which James Harden is, even though he’s still listed exclusively as a SG on FanDuel). At his price point, Harden needs around 60 points to reach value. That number may seem unattainable and unrealistic, but Harden has hit 60 or more DK FPTS in seven of nine games. He’s a great cash and GPP play tonight.
Jamal Crawford ($3,900 DK – $4,100 FD) – Tonight, we are going to need some value in order to pay up for Harden, and there are several sub 5k SG’s that I like this evening. I’ll give you a deeper GPP play here. Brooklyn currently plays at the sixth fastest pace in the NBA, and they have a top 10 DRtg/A ranking (meaning they’re one of the 10 best defenses). I have a hard time believing that the Nets will remain a top 10 defense for long, especially given their team pace and overall personnel. Furthermore, the Clippers are sixth best in ORtg/A (offensive rating). The Clippers come into this game as the biggest favorites on the board. I expect CP3, Blake and co. to smash in this game, which should open a large lead in the second half. Crawford may not see above 25 minutes, but I like this spot plenty as a GPP play, especially with his USG sitting around 22. The Nets struggle mightily against the SG position (26th in DvP) and if Crawford gets hot, he can pay off his salary handsomely. I’ll list a few other cheap options that I like below.
Others worth mentioning
Avery Bradley – not cheap
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Cash
Seth Curry
Josh Richardson
Tyler Johnson – DK
Joe Harris
Small Forward
Favorites
Harrison Barnes ($6,000 FD) – This is a FanDuel specific play as his price is way too cheap. He’s listed at $7,100 on DK, which doesn’t take him out of play by any means but it makes him far less attractive. The Knicks currently rank as the second best SF DvP matchup in the NBA, which is largely due to Carmello’s disinterest on the defensive end. The Knicks also represent a pace up matchup for the Mav’s tonight, which is something we like to target. Barnes ranks fifth among starting SF’s in USG for tonight’s slate, and given the close spread of this game, I expect Barnes to get good run tonight. On FanDuel, I’m locking him into my cash lineups. On DK, he makes for a high floor play, but he may not crush value.
Gordon Hayward ($7,600 DK – $7,700 FD) – It’s easy to look at an O/U and write off the game and every player from that game entirely, but Hayward has proven himself to be a viable option, even in low totals and slow paced games. The reality is that the Jazz are always going to be involved in a slow paced game as they play at the slowest pace in the league. It’s important to look beyond any given stat or trend. Hayward has the third highest USG of an SF in the NBA, and has been getting elite minutes (35 or more in each of his last three games). Vegas expects this game to be relatively close (six point spread), which should allow Hayward to continue his recent tear. At his price point, we need 36-37 FPTS to reach value, which he has done in each of his last four games on both major sites. He’s a great cash play with enough ceiling to warrant GPP consideration, especially when many will be turned off by the low total.
Others worth mentioning
Kawhi Leonard
Robert Covington
CJ Miles
Power Forward
Favorites
Anthony Davis ($11,300 DK – $11,500 FD) – The Celtics have taken a new defensive approach over their last few games by starting Marcus Smart at SF and have added a healthy Kelly Olynyk to the starting five, which has coincided with a slight improvement in DRtg/A. That’s all well and good, but that alone isn’t likely to help the Celtics defend Brow tonight. The Celtics currently rank as the ninth best PF DvP matchup in the NBA (and the fourth best represented on the slate) and still sit at a woeful 27th in DRtg/A. Vegas projects this game to stay close throughout, and Brow with his 31.59 USG rate is going to be a massive reason why. The Pelicans play at a quick pace, and the Celtics prefer to play up-tempo as well, which should further open the door for fantasy goodness tonight. I love to take big men against bad rebounding teams, and the Celtics currently rank as the second worst team in terms of rebounding differential. Brow could easily snag 15 boards tonight to help pad his stat line even more. There is always the chance of injury with Davis, but we can’t make decisions based on fear of injury. He should beast tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Blake Griffin
Kelly Olynyk – DK
Jon Leuer
Center
Favorites
Nikola Vucevic – ($6,100 DK – $7,100 FD) – Once again, there is massive price discrepancy between sites, but I like Vuc as a strong play on both DK and FD. Some may write Vuc off tonight after the Magic played last night, but the big man got into early foul trouble last night and played under 20 minutes, which means he should be at full strength tonight. The Pacers currently rank as the sixth best C DvP matchup in the NBA, and I expect Vuc to take full advantage of that. As mentioned earlier, the Pacers are playing at an extremely fast pace and have been playing some of the worst defense in the NBA. Some people still view Indiana as a strong defensive team, but that is reality no more. Vuc owns a USG rate of 21.94, and should be able to beat Myles Turner down low.
Joel Embiid $(6,300 DK – $5,400 FD) – The price keeps climbing slowly, but his price on FD remains way too cheap. Embiid should start tonight in an up-tempo game against a team with a bottom five DRtg/A. While Embiid has not played above 26 minutes this season, he has surpassed 23 DK FPTS in every game while surpassing 36 DK FPTS in half of his games. Embiid is a usage monster, as he currently owns the second highest USG (39.0) out of any starter in the NBA behind only Russell Westbrook. The DvP matchup is not elite, but it is nothing that worries me when I can get a player at his price point with his usage in an up-tempo game. He’s in play on DK where you can roster two Centers and he is nearing must play status in cash games on FD at his price point.
Others worth mentioning
Hassan Whiteside
Andrew Bogut
Kelly Olynyk – FD
Tendencies To Exploit
We’ve talked about it before, but don’t just look at the box score. Nikola Vucevic only played 19 minutes last night. Some DFS players will look at that and run the other direction. You and I can look at that and find out why, and if it is likely to be repeated or if it was an outlier. If you find yourself shying away from a play because of minutes, look at the reason. Does he always play sub 25 minutes or is he usually up around 30 plus minutes. Did he get into foul trouble? Was he involved in a blowout? Did he get ejected? And so on. Do yourself a favor, and give those guys extra consideration. Be able to answer the question, “why don’t I want to roster this player” along with the question of “why do I want to roster this player.” Both are equally important, and looking at the box score isn’t going to be adequate in forming educated answers.
Give RotoGrinders and me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.