NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, December 14th
With all of the late breaking news, feel free to hit me up in the comments section or on twitter. I’ll answer as quickly and as sagaciously as I can.
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Ten
Highest O/U
Los Angeles Lakers @ Brooklyn Nets – 228.5
Lowest O/U
Detroit Pistons @ Dallas Mavericks – 188.5
Highest Projected Total
Los Angeles Lakers – 115
Lowest Projected Total
Dallas Mavericks – 92
Largest Spread
Los Angeles Clippers – 9.5-point road favorites over Orlando Magic
Closest Spread
Los Angeles Lakers – 1-point road favorites over Brooklyn Nets
Point Guard
Favorites
Goran Dragic ($7,300 DK – $7,400 FD) – Dragic has been a beast, and yet I seem to roster him every time he puts up a dud. I think I’m willing to roll with him again in this spot though. Tonight, Goran gets a great matchup against the Pacers who rank 21st in PG DvP, 20th in DRtg/A and eighth in pace. The Heat play at a bottom five pace in the NBA, so this is a massive pace up spot (more than five possessions per game difference). Dragic should thrive in a game like this. Vegas also has this game as being tied for the closest spread of the night with Miami being a one point home favorite. Minutes and production should be there in spades for Dragic tonight.
Andrew Harrison ($4,300 DK – $4,200 FD) – Harrison isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s a great value and a sneaky good option. The Cavs blew Memphis out last night, but Harrison produced just shy of one fantasy point per minute in 31 minutes of action. Harrison gets the same matchup tonight, though the Cavs will be resting their big three, which means that the Grizzlies have the likely advantage. Harrison has seen minutes regardless of game-flow, and Vegas still has this game as being relatively close. The spread is unattractive, but with the dropping salary and the attention that will likely be on the value plays on the other side of this game, I don’t mind Harrison as a sneaky good play for cash and GPP. Patrick Beverley was a darling of mine on Monday night, and he didn’t let us down. He’s in an excellent spot tonight as well, and is firmly in play at a slightly higher price point.
Others worth mentioning
Chris Paul
John Wall
Kemba Walker
Cavaliers’ starter
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Lou Williams ($6,500 DK – $6,200 FD) – Sweet Lou is even sweeter given the massive drop in salary that we’ve seen. If you’ve been reading this article for very long, you know that I like to target good players in good spots who are coming off of disappointing performances. While it’s true that the nearly fully healthy backcourt of the Lakers will lend itself to somewhat squeezing Lou’s minutes, he’s still going to see a minimum of 26 minutes with 35 minutes upside. The matchup is ideal. The Nets rank 28th in SG DvP, 27th in DRtg/A and are one of the few teams in the NBA that play at a faster pace than the Lakers. This game will be played at a torrential pace, and Vegas projects it to be the highest scoring single game of the slate. We’ll want some action here, and Lou is likely to be lower owned than he should be due to his disappointing outing last game. With a big drop in salary and a heavy dose of recency bias, fire up Sweet Lou in your GPPs.
Others worth mentioning
James Harden
Nicolas Batum
Sean Kilpatrick
Bojan Bogdanovic
Iman Shumpert
J.R. Smith
Small Forward
Favorites
Luol Deng ($4,000 DK – $4,200 FD) – Another Lakers player, and you shouldn’t be surprised considering that their opponent ranks 28th or worse against every position in terms of DvP. You could take three or four Lakers and I wouldn’t have a strong argument against it. Deng might see a spike in ownership tonight due to his recent performances. Simply put, Deng has seen more consistent minutes over the last two weeks, and he has been remarkably consistent over that span. In his last eight games, Deng has exceeded 6x salary five times. At his price now, Deng can easily do that once again in this matchup. As I referenced earlier, the Nets are a mess defensively. They represent the second most favorable matchup for opposing SFs. Furthermore, the pace and DRtg/A are also extremely favorable for Lakers players tonight. What I really like with Deng is that he’s taking (and making) more shots in his last few games. He’s always going to produce in peripheral categories because of his length and effort, so the real life points are a nice bonus to add on top of that. Don’t overlook him tonight.
Omri Casspi ($4,400 DK/FD) – Casspi has SF/PF eligibility on DK, but is PF eligible only on FD. I feel a sudden rage bubbling up within me as I try to understand the ever-changing landscape of position eligibility. I’m writing about Casspi here because Rudy Gay is Doubtful for tonight’s game and Casspi is expected to be the primary beneficiary of that news. Matt Barnes should also see an uptick in minutes, but that didn’t really pan out last game. Casspi is the closest thing to a lock for more minutes, and he has produced double-digit real life points in four straight games along with five or more rebounds in three of those four games. Casspi probably doesn’t have the ceiling for GPP consideration, but he does represent a good value on the slate, and he gives you some flexibility considering his MPE. The Rockets are heavy favorites here, but they are a bottom ten team in DRtg/A and are average to below average in SF/PF DvP. Casspi is a solid bet for 4-6x on his salary.
Others worth mentioning
Kawhi Leonard
Demarre Carroll
Sam Dekker
Matt Barnes
Dorian Finney-Smith
Power Forward
Favorites
Update: LaMarcus Aldridge has been ruled out Wednesday.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,100 DK – $6,300 FD) – To be honest with you, I haven’t rostered LMA once all season long. I rarely play more than two lineups, and so I’m constantly playing my optimal lineup, and Aldridge hasn’t made the cut. He will (at the very least) tempt me tonight. The Celtics have improved defensively as the season has progressed, but they are still well below average in DRtg/A, and they particularly struggle defending the PF position (where they rank 23rd). Furthermore, the Celtics are 26th in rebound differential, which should lead to an uptick in boards for LMA. What else do we like here? In close games, Aldridge is still seeing plenty of run (usually around 34-36 minutes per game). The price is as low as it has been all season. If the Celtics can keep this game close, Aldridge is a sneaky bet for a double-double. He still possesses 50 FPTS upside in the right spot, and I would be surprised if he doesn’t at least get us 5x tonight.
Trevor Booker ($5,900 DK/FD) – Here’s how the Lakers stack up defensively – 28th in PF DvP and 28th in DRtg/A. LAL ranks 27th in rebounds allowed to opposing PFs. Booker is extremely efficient in terms of FPTS/MIN, and he should see somewhere around 30 minutes tonight. Again, this is the highest total of the night, and Booker is poised to be a key component in how this game plays out. Booker collects points, rebounds and he has the second most steals among all power forwards this season with 45. Guess which team leads the NBA in turnovers and steals allowed this season (by a lot) – If you guessed the Lakers, you’re correct! Go you! Steals are never a certainty, but given the pace, the likely turnovers and the minutes for Booker, he ought to rack up a couple of them, which will only help pad his stat line. Booker is one of the safest plays at the position tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Blake Griffin
JaMychal Green
Center
Favorites
Al Horford ($6,700 DK – $7,900 FD) – Al is a far superior play on DK, and I’d likely pay a bit more for Whiteside on FD, however, I wouldn’t argue against Horford on either site. We’ve been attacking the “defense” of Pau Gasol for years, and there’s no reason to stop now. Pau has seen good minutes lately, which should coincide with some of Horford’s success tonight. Horford has taken eight 3PA’s in two straight games, and is clearly taking on more of an offensive role with IT2 Out. That should remain the case tonight. Horford has seen a massive spike in USG over the last several games and that will continue in this spot. The Spurs are excellent defensively, and they’ve been better than you think against the C position, but Horford remains in an elite spot because of the spike in usage and his individual matchup tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Hassan Whiteside
Brook Lopez
Tristan Thompson
Jonas Valanciunas
Tendencies To Exploit
There are a vast number of injured and resting players tonight. It’s up to us to figure out who will benefit the most. Consider both the team of the resting/injured player(s) and how that team will be impacted as well as how the opposition will adjust, and how it will impact them. Keep an eye on your RotoGrinders app for news and updates. Stay flexible, and be willing to adjust.
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.