NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, November 16th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
11
Highest O/U
Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors – 221
Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets – 221
Lowest O/U
San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings – 195
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 113.25
Denver Nuggets – 112.5
Lowest Projected Total
Memphis Grizzlies: 94.5
Sacramento Kings: 94.75
Largest Spread
Los Angeles Clippers: 12-point home favorites over Memphis Grizzlies
Closest Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder: two-point favorites over Houston Rockets
Quick thoughts on the slate
ALERT: LeBron James (rest) has been ruled OUT for tonight.
There are seven studs priced at over $9,000 that I like. They’re all in good spots to put up huge fantasy points. Because of that, I’m not going to mention any of them specifically in my write-ups of each position, but know that James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and John Wall are all very much in play. Let’s get to some other strong plays that we can pair with some of the aforementioned studs.
Point Guard
Favorites
Kyle Lowry ($7,700 DK – $8,000 FD) – When you consider the output that Lowry is capable of, he represents a nice value tonight. The Raptors host the Warriors tonight in what will be a massive pace up spot for Toronto. The Warriors currently play at the seventh fastest pace in all of the land. Vegas projects this game to be close, as the Warriors are 5.5-point favorites. The fact that the Raptors are in Toronto for this one takes away some of the blowout risk, though they did play the Cavs last night and will be in the second leg of a back to back. Along with the elevated pace of this game, the Warriors also currently grade out as the 26th best team in DRtg/A, which may surprise some. Guess which teams rank one and two in terms of ORtg/A – Toronto and Golden State. This game should be a shootout, and with Lowry heating up and facing the 23rd ranked team in PG DvP, I like him to rise up to the challenge tonight.
Eric Bledsoe ($6,900 DK – $7,500 FD) – I like the price much more on DK, but Bledsoe is in play on both sites. While Devin Booker and T.J. Warren have stepped up and taken on more offensively this season, Bledsoe continues to contribute across the board. He also sports a very strong 25.39 USG rate. This game features the highest O/U of the slate, and the Nuggets currently rank as the best PG matchup in the NBA in terms of DvP. What makes this game even more enticing is that these two teams are number one and two in pace, while both teams also rank in the bottom eight on ORtg/A. This game may be a bit sloppy, but I expect Bledsoe to contribute across the board (as he has done all season thus far) including rebounds, assists and steals. Bledsoe brings a safe floor, and he has the highest ceiling that he’s had all season in this matchup tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Chris Paul
Isaiah Thomas
Kyrie Irving
Marcus Smart
Jamal Murray
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Evan Fournier ($5,700 DK – $5,600 FD) – If you don’t want to spend top dollar on Harden and you don’t want DeRozan either, I present you with Evan Fournier. While there are certainly higher floors and higher ceiling on the slate, Fournier provides both in what is expected to be a closely contested game. The Pelicans have played poor defense overall this season, though they’ve shown some minor improvements of late. They also continue to play at the eighth fastest pace in the NBA, which will lead to this becoming a pace up game for the Magic tonight. The Pelicans also represent the eight best SG DvP matchup in basketball as well, which all leads us to Mr. Fournier. Fournier is fairly scoring dependent, but he has been making a high percentage of his shots this season and has a healthy 22.36 USG rate. I don’t see the Pelicans being able to do a lot to impede him in this spot, which makes him a sneaky target for me both in cash games and tournaments, given his price and his potential upside. In this spot, I think his floor is around 25 FPTS with a 40-42 FPTS ceiling.
Others worth mentioning
Avery Bradley
Devin Booker
Klay Thompson
Eric Gordon
Seth Curry
Norman Powell
Small Forward
Favorites
Otto Porter ($6,500 DK – $6,300 FD) – Everyone seems to have jumped off of the Otto hype train of last week, which helps put him firmly on my radar this evening. Otto has had a few pedestrian games back to back, but finds himself in a prime spot this evening. John Wall being active and drawing defensive attention is serving to help Otto’s production. Wall will play tonight, and Vegas has this game at a minute 4.5-point spread, which should provide Otto and the starters with ample playing time. The 76ers grade rank dead last at SF DvP, 11th fastest in pace, and 20th in DRtg/A. Otto’s USG remains uninspiring, but with Bradley Beal already ruled Out, Otto will see a spike in USG and he should be on the narrowed down list of SF’s that you should be seriously considering tonight.
P.J. Tucker ($3,300 DK – $4,000 FD) – If we’re going to fit a stud or two in our lineups tonight, we’re going to need to find some great value out there. At the moment, Tucker is one of my favorite value plays of the evening. To recap about this game, it is tied for the highest O/U of the slate and both teams play at the two fastest paces in the NBA. Both teams also struggle in offensive efficiency. This is the type of game that P.J. can rack up steals in a hurry, as the Nuggets have the fourth most turnovers in the NBA (averaging over 18 per game) and the Suns have the sixth most steals in the NBA. Tucker himself has nine steals in his last four games (and 15% of team steals this season), and is seeing his minutes steadily climb. Tucker may also see some time at the four tonight, where the Nuggets also struggle. I have a good feeling that we’ll see 25 plus minutes from Tucker tonight, which will be more than enough time for him to meet and exceed value in a game like this. Don’t expect 20 real life points, but 30-35 FPTS isn’t out of the question at all.
Others worth mentioning
Kawhi Leonard
Harrison Barnes
T.J. Warren
Danilo Gallinari
Power Forward
Favorites
Draymond Green ($8,200 DK – $8,300 FD) – Draymond carries one of the most stable floors in all of NBA DFS because he contributes in so many ways. When Vegas projects a Golden State game to be within eight points or so, I’m going to be interested in Dray. As a team, the Raptors are average defending opposing PF’s and are slightly below average in DRtg/A. The Warriors team total is the highest of the slate, but it’s also nearly three points below their season average. This would make me less bullish on a guy like Klay Thompson, who is largely scoring dependent, but it’s a different story with Draymond. If this game does stay close as we think it will, Green is going to see 33 or more minutes, which projects to put his floor around 35 points and his ceiling around 50 points.
Markieff Morris ($6,100 DK – $5,900 FD) – Markieff is another option from the Wizards tonight. Again, we have a close spread and a healthy team total for Washington tonight as they face the 76ers and their 20th ranked DRtg/A. Philadelphia provides a pace up matchup for Washington tonight, and Morris should be able take advantage of that. As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, I love taking big men with a built in rebounding floor. While Markieff isn’t a dominant rebounder, the 76ers currently rank as the fourth worst rebounding team in terms of differential per game, which typically proves to give opposing bigs a boost of anywhere from 3-5 extra rebounding opportunities. Morris’s biggest issue this season has been his poor shooting, but he’s shown signs of improvements in that area in his last three games, and he still owns a USG rate of 21 despite his cold shooting so far this season. With Beal out, expect that USG rate to go up a bit in this one as well. Morris represents another sneaky but strong option in tonight’s packed slate.
Others worth mentioning
Blake Griffin
LaMarcus Aldridge
Kenneth Faried
Ryan Anderson – If you like pain (just kidding, mostly kidding)
Marreese Speights – FP/M monster in what Vegas projects to be a potential blowout.
Center
Favorites
Mike Muscala ($PF on $FD) ($3,600 DK – $4,000 FD) – Position eligibility on DK and FD is driving me freaking crazy. That wasn’t a rant as it lasted just one sentence (now two, to explain myself), but it helped me feel better. Muscala is primarily backing up the Hawks Center by the name of Dwight Howard. Muscala can shoot the three and stretch the floor, but he plays the role of the five for the Hawks (I may still be ranting unintentionally). The point here is that Dwight Howard left the game early last night with a knee/quad injury and sounds unlikely to go tonight. If Howard indeed misses tonight’s game, guess who will start at Center (not PF) for the Hawks – Muscala. Muscala has been a FP/M beast so far in his limited opportunity this season as he is averaging 20.9 DK FPTS per 20.1 minutes/game. Lastly, the Bucks rank 23rd in C DvP and 21st in DRtg/A. If Howard is Out tonight, plug Muscala in for a good time (and a great value).
Lucas Nogueira ($4,300 DK – $4,600 FD) I mentioned rostering “Bebe” to a friend on Saturday, and my friend had no idea who I was talking about. Bebe is Nogueira’s nickname, and it’s so much easier to type than “Nogueira,” so Bebe it is. Bebe has come on strong for the Raptors as he has seen increased minutes with Val recovering from his ailments. Prior to disappointing last night in a tough spot, Bebe had seen three straight games of 26 or more minutes with 25 or more FPTS. With the Raptors in the second leg of a back to back and with Val still getting back to full strength, I expect the minutes to be there again for the Brazilian tonight (He got into early foul trouble last night, which was the reason for his limited run). The Warriors rank 22nd in C DvP, and they play at a fast pace, which should provide extra opportunities for Bebe in this spot, so long as he avoids the foul trouble. As previously mentioned, the Warriors are also struggling in DRtg/A as they rank 26th in the NBA. Vegas projects this game to be close, and I think Bebe is in a good spot to meet and exceed value once again.
Others worth mentioning
Marc Gasol
Marcin Gortat
Steven Adams
Tendencies To Exploit
Roster construction is going to be very predictable tonight as most will lean towards a stars and scrubs type of lineup, especially with the anticipated value opening up due to injuries. If you want to be different in large pool GPPs, try to build a lineup with just one stud and build around that guy with mid-salary upside plays like Markieff Morris and Kyle Lowry and so on. There’s no need to differentiate too much in small pool GPPs or at all in cash, but be willing to be contrarian in your roster construction tonight.
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.