NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, November 23rd
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
13
Highest O/U
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors – 228
Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets – 216.5
Lowest O/U
Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons – 188.5
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 122.5
Cleveland Cavaliers – 113.5
Lowest Projected Total
Dallas Mavericks – 91.25
Miami Heat – 91.5
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors: 17-point home favorites over Los Angeles Lakers
Closest Spread
Atlanta Hawks @ Indian Pacers: 1.5-point spread
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans: 1.5-point spread
Point Guard
Favorites
Isaiah Thomas ($8,000 DK – $8,200 FD) – For starters, IT2 ranks fifth in the league in USG among starters (at any position) with an awesome 33.16 rate. Everything else sets up beautifully tonight as well. The least attractive thing about this matchup is the fact that Boston is a 7.5-point favorite, which does equate to potential blowout risk. The good news is that this game will be played in Brooklyn, which might help the Nets stick around in this game. As for the matchup – The Nets currently play at the second fastest pace in the NBA, which is something that we love for opposing guards. Next, the Nets are dead last in PG DvP and 26th in team DRtg/A. Want more? Ok. The Nets are allowing the third most 3PM (successful 3-point shots) in the NBA, and the sixth most 3PA (3-point attempts) in the NBA. We LOVE those numbers when looking at someone with IT2’s usage and three point FGA’s per game. If this game stays competitive, Thomas could easily put up a score that wins a GPP. The higher priced options may be sexier, but no spot is more favorable for an opposing PG.
Elfrid Payton ($5,900 DK – $5,700 FD) – In the right matchup, Elf has 50 FPTS upside. This may just be such a matchup. The Suns play at the fastest pace in the NBA, which means more opportunities for peripheral stats for opposing players. The Suns also rank 28th in PG DvP and 21st in DRtg/A. The Magic are currently expected to outscore their season average in points by 14 (not a typo). That is a massive number, and it is Vegas’s way of telling us that this game should be full of fantasy goodness (that is our interpration, at least). Elfrid doesn’t own the highest USG rate, but at 20.32, it is still respectable. This spot is extremely favorable, the price is favorable, and the up-tempo nature of this game should allow opportunities for more peripheral stats (steals, blocks, assists, rebounds) as well. He’s a good salary saving option with upside.
Others worth mentioning
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry
Kyle Lowry
Kyrie Irving
Eric Bledsoe
Jordan Clarkson
Tim Frazier
Dante Exum
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Klay Thompson ($6,200 DK – $6,000 FD) – Klay brings GPP winning upside to the table every time he takes the court. We’ve all seen those games where he gets hot and stays hot and ends up with 60-70 FPTS. I’m not saying this is one of those times, but I’m saying that he has a great chance to exceed value in this spot tonight. The Warriors have the highest projected team total on the board at 122. Vegas also has the Warriors as 17-point favorites, which isn’t great. The Lakers have played solid basketball, at least offensively, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they stay competitive (though they did play a closely contested game last night). If you’re feeling like you want a piece of the Warriors, Klay is cheap and couldn’t be in a better matchup. The Lakers rank 29th in SG DvP, 28th in DRtg/A and are ninth fastest in pace. With this game expected to be played in transition, Klay will find open shots. If he gets hot, he could be a sneaky play from this game as he’s been largely overlooked in favor of the other Warriors starters (minus Zaza).
Others worth mentioning
James Harden
Avery Bradley
Devin Booker
Rodney Hood
Evan Fournier
Lou Williams
Small Forward
Favorites
Rudy Gay ($6,900 DK – $7,200 FD) – Gay has already flashed 55 FPTS upside this season on multiple occasions, and he finds himself in an interesting spot tonight. Vegas projects a closely contested game as the Kings are 2.5-point favorites over the Thunder tonight. The Kings’ team total is more than six points above their season average in points, which is in part due to the Thunder playing a tough game last night. The Thunder remain one of the best teams in DRtg/A, but they have shown weakness against the SF position, where they currently rank 21st in DvP. OKC is also one of the best teams when it comes to defending the C and PF position, which may mean the Kings give Gay a few extra looks as Cousins will have his hands full. The stigma is that Cousins takes all the USG and that there isn’t enough meat on the bone for other contributors, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. Gay owns an excellent 24.36 USG rate and is averaging over 20 real points per game. With this game expected to stay close, I expect Gay to crush value in this spot.
Vince Carter ($4,100 DK – $4,300 FD) – This is not an upside play as Vince isn’t going to go get you 50 FPTS, but I like trying to find solid value at SF. Chandler Parsons is a walking injury and will be sidelined for the next week at minimum, and James Ennis is also expected to be out for the next two weeks. That leaves the Grizzlies with Vince Carter. Carter has regularly been seeing 30 minutes, and he should be in line for the same tonight. Brief rabbit trail – the first jersey that I ever owned was a purple pinstriped Vince Carter Raptors jersey (what was your first jersey?). Further enhancing this spot is the surprising spread – Vegas expects this game to remain close as the Grizzlies are only five point favorites. The 76ers rank 29th in SF DvP, 22nd in DRtg/A and are a top ten team in pace. Vince gives us some great salary relief and should have a solid floor as long as his minutes are what we expect them to be tonight. Tony Allen is also a solid option for all of the same options above, though he is listed at SG on DK and FD . Allen doesn’t bring the same offensive ability, but he should be in line for solid minutes if his groin issue is resolved. Both guys should see 25 plus minutes.
Others worth mentioning
Kevin Durant
Kawhi Leonard
Andrew Wiggins
Power Forward
Favorites
Kevin Love ($7,700 DK – $7,800 FD) – Vegas has the Cavs as 11-point home favorites against Portland tonight, which isn’t ideal, but the Cavs do have the second highest total on the slate. Love finds himself in a prime spot tonight. The Blazers currently rank 30th (last) in DRtg/A, and have had massive struggles against the PF position. Ed Davis has started the last three games in a row, and has played reasonably well, but he can’t guard Kevin Love on the perimeter or in the paint. Davis is a good rebounder, which may take a few boards away from Love, but not many. The Trail Blazers rank 29th in PF DvP. Love sports an excellent 26.19 USG rate, and against a pace up opponent like Portland, Love should be able to rack in some extra peripheral stats as well. Love is averaging a double double on the season (20.25 points and 11 boards per game), and should have no problem getting it done in this spot tonight.
Paul Millsap ($7,800 DK – $7,800 FD) – Millsap has underwhelmed at times this season, but he seems to be heating up of late with three consecutive 40 FPTS outings prior to the blowout loss last night against the Pelicans. Millsap will face the Pacers tonight, and Indiana rank 20th in DRtg/A, 19th in PF DvP and fifth in pace. Indiana also ranks 28th in rebounding differential, which means that Millsap and Howard should feast on the boards tonight. More specifically, the Pacers are allowing the second most rebounds to power forwards in the NBA. Vegas has this game at a healthy 209 O/U with the Hawks favored by one point. Millsap should see plenty of run tonight and is a nice pivot off of Love in a similar spot. I like both plays for cash and GPP.
Others worth mentioning
Draymond Green
LaMarcus Aldridge
Trevor Booker
JaMychal Green
Center
Favorites
Marc Gasol ($7,000 DK – $6,800 FD) – Gasol is a strong cash game play tonight, though he may not bring the most upside with his rising salary. Still, there is plenty to like for Gasol in this spot. As we mentioned earlier, Vegas expects this game to stay competitive. Gasol has seen at least 33 minutes in five of his last six, and should see the same tonight. If you’ve been reading this article for very long, you know that I want big men in good rebounding spots as that helps pad their stat line. Gasol faces the 76ers tonight, who rank 25th in rebounding differential. Gasol isn’t the greatest force on the boards, but he should rack up a few extra rebounds in this spot. Furthermore, the 76ers rank 27th in C DvP. If this game stays close as Vegas projects, Gasol has a strong chance to double double and exceed value tonight.
Bismack Biyombo DK – $4,500 FD) – Bismack has seen minutes in the 20’s in seven straight games. As a fantasy point per minute beast, Biyombo finds himself in a very attractive spot tonight. First of all, the Suns rank as the fasted tempo’d team in the NBA. This means that the big men will share minutes more evenly as they’ll be working hard. It also means that there are more opportunities for rebounds, blocks and steals, which is where Bismack really thrives. The Suns are average in terms of C DvP, but Tyson Chandler (their best interior defender) won’t be playing tonight. Phoenix ranks 20th in DRtg/A, and have allowed the sixth most rebounds per game to opposing Centers (and the most steals per game allowed to opposing C’s). I’m projecting Bismack for 25 minutes tonight, which would be more than enough time for him to smash value.
Others worth mentioning
Karl Anthony-Towns
Andre Drummond
Dwight Howard
Al Horford
Brook Lopez
Nikola Vucevic
Alex Len or Alan Williams (one or both are likely to exceed value – take your pick)
Steven Adams
Tendencies To Exploit
It’s a huge slate, so pay attention to detail today. Look at Vegas line movement as an additional factor to consider. Some lines have moved considerably in the last two hours alone. Good luck!
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.