NFL Best Bets for Week 10: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Yet another split last week. Jacksonville was absolutely dead. They had less than 40 yards of offense midway through the 3rd quarter. Then a Saquon Barkley fumble and some Nick Sirianni chicanery allowed the Jaguars to get back in the game. Tough loss. Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t threaten his receiving yards prop…easy win there. Need to hit both picks one of these weeks.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 5-4
- Prop Picks: 4-5
Tennessee Titans Under 15.5 Team Total (-108 on DraftKings)
Will Levis was listed as a full participant in practice on Thursday. Head coach Brian Callahan said he is “hopeful” Levis can return this week. I’m expecting him to start against the Chargers, which is good news for their talented defense. And even if Mason Rudolph draws the start, I’m still not worried. Rudolph has been almost as bad as Levis.
Levis ranks 34th in EPA/play among the 35 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays this season. Only Bryce Young has been worse than Levis. Deshaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett, and Gardner Minshew have all been better than him. Tennessee averaged 16.3 points in the 4 games Levis finished.
The Chargers have allowed the fewest points per game (12.6). They lead the league by a significant margin. The Steelers are 2nd at 14.6, and the Broncos are 3rd at 17.9. Those are significant gaps. The Chargers have allowed more than 17 points just once this season. They’ve allowed the lowest EPA/play in the league. The Chargers have given up the 2nd-lowest dropback EPA and rush EPA. Just an elite unit all around.
If Levis can put together three scoring drives, I’ll tip my cap.
Javonte Williams Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (-113 on BetRivers)
Williams did manage 42 yards on 12 carries last week against a tough Baltimore run defense. This is an even tougher matchup, and there are several factors working against him.
Kansas City is the best run defense in the league. They’ve held running backs to the fewest yards per carry and the fewest yards per game. The Chiefs are 2nd in both yards before contact and yards after contact per attempt. They’re also 2nd in stuff rate. It’s a brutal matchup.
Denver’s backfield is as crowded as it’s been since the short-lived Tyler Badie run. Badie led the team in carries out of nowhere in Week 3 and looked to be securing a larger role, but he got hurt in Week 4 and has been on IR since then. Williams maintained his lead-back status from there, but new challengers have emerged. Jaleel McLaughlin has played more than 30% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks, something he hadn’t done since Week 5. Audric Estime also played a season-high 10% of the snaps last week. Williams’ 54% snap rate in Week 9 was his lowest since Week 3. He earned just half of the running back carries.
Estime largely played in garbage time, which could be a factor once again in this spot. Denver is on the road as a touchdown underdog against the last remaining undefeated team. Williams will need the Broncos to keep it close, have success against the best run defense in the league, and choose to prioritize him over the other backs. He has multiple paths to failure here.
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