NFL Best Bets for Week 13: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Bang! Finally hit both picks last week. After weeks and weeks of splits, then a whiff in Week 11, it was nice to cruise to a couple of wins. The Giants offense was a disaster with Tommy DeVito under center. They didn’t sniff their team total. D’Andre Swift didn’t get anything going against Minnesota and failed to get even halfway to his rushing prop. Let’s stay hot!
Season Record
- Game Picks: 6-6
- Prop Picks: 6-6
New York Jets Under 20.5 Team Total (-110 on Caesars)
We’re going back to a New York team this week. This time, we’re picking on the Jets. This offense under Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been much better than it was with Zach Wilson and Mike White. The Jets are averaging just 18.5 points per game, the 6th-lowest mark in the league.
The big injury to monitor is Breece Hall. He popped up as questionable with a knee issue, which is especially concerning considering the Jets are coming off a bye week. He got in a limited practice on Thursday, so he might be on track to suit up on Sunday. Even if he plays, it likely won’t be at 100%. Braelon Allen has played well in a backup role, but he’s no Hall.
Seattle’s defense has struggled on the injury front. They came out of a Week 10 bye much healthier, and the results have shown it. The Seahawks limited the 49ers to 17 points in San Francisco, then turned around and held Arizona without a touchdown last week. Leonard Williams absolutely wrecked that game, but he did pick up a minor injury. He’s questionable right now, so hopefully, he manages to play. Mike Macdonald has this group playing well and I’m expecting that to continue here.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-113 on FanDuel)
Stevenson got off to an excellent start to the season. He rumbled for 356 yards on 77 carries through New England’s first 5 games. Stevenson’s 4.6 yards per carry was in line with his career average. Since then went down with a foot injury. He only missed Week 6, but his production has fallen off a cliff since then. He’s posted 242 yards on 85 carries in his 6 games since the foot problem, good for just 2.9 YPC.
It hasn’t been a matchup thing, either. Stevenson has actually faced two of the same defenses in each split (Dolphins and Jets). He’s flopped against the Bears, Jaguars, and Rams, who all rank bottom 8 in rushing yards allowed per game. The only tough matchup in this recent stretch was the Titans, and yet he’s still faltered. Stevenson managed just 13 yards on 8 carries last week against Miami. Antonio Gibson actually out-snapped him for the first time this season. The game script may have had something to do with it, but Gibson did go for 31 yards on his 6 carries.
Indianapolis would seem to fall in the easy matchup camp. The Colts have allowed the 5th-most yards per game to running backs. The key is DeForest Buckner. Indy has been much sturdier with Buckner in the lineup. In 5 games since Buckner returned from IR, they’re allowing 4.2 yards per carry. It’s not amazing, but an improvement. They’ve shut down Jonathan Taylor and Aaron Jones, while holding James Cook and Joe Mixon in check. Jahmyr Gibbs had a big game last week, but he needed 21 carries to get there.
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