NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 10

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Happy Saturday, Grinders! Last week, Russell Wilson got the job done very comfortably with a huge performance against the Buccaneers. David Montgomery stayed under his rushing total against the Eagles while Robby Anderson failed to climb over his receiving yards prop. Two out of three ain’t bad, they say but let’s build off of a solid week and maybe attain a clean sweep. How will we get there?

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Check out our Week 10 Lines and Betting Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into all of the online sportsbooks. Here are my three favorite props for NFL Week 10.

NFL Betting Picks Week 10 — QB Player Prop for Giants at Jets

Daniel Jones Over/Under 234.5 Passing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)

In a previous article, I grabbed the under on Jones’ passing yards against the Detroit Lions. Jones wasted no time in clearing the yardage prop early in the fourth quarter. This week, the passing yardage total for Jones does not make much sense considering the context of the game.

The Jets have allowed all but one quarterback to clear this yardage mark this season. The one quarterback who stayed under 200 yards was Carson Wentz — in a matchup where the Eagles jumped out to a huge early lead with a defensive score. Wentz didn’t need to wing the ball around the yard — Jones and the Giants should need to move the ball as short favorites against their hometown rivals.

Also, the Jets’ defense, ahem, the entire organization has been a disaster this season. That said, the Jets’ seem equipped at stopping the run only allowing 602 rushing yards to backs over eight games. Saquon Barkley is certainly a different breed of back and makes for a fine play in your DFS lineups this week but the Giants will likely need to commit to throwing the ball — perhaps to Barkley — to score against this Jets’ defense. The Giants will be without both Evan Engram and Sterling Shepherd but look for the Jets to force the ball in Jones’ hand. Give me the over in what might be an under-the-radar shootout.

My Pick: Over 234.5 Passing Yards -112

NFL Betting Picks Week 10 — RB Player Prop for Ravens at Bengals

Mark Ingram Over/Under 66.5 Rushing Yards (use our Pointsbet to get these odds)

In a different type of game script, the Ravens are enormous favorites on the road against the Bungles. Cincinnati is done for the year, placing Andy Dalton on ice as A.J. Green continues to sit out. Ryan Finley — another quarterback you or I never heard of — will start against the Ravens with Baltimore coming off of a huge home victory against the Patriots. Usually, this would be a potential “let-down” spot for the heavy favorites. Sports bettors and bookmakers disagree with an already robust 9.5-point spread moving to 10.5 points throughout the week. The Bengals are just that bad. Baltimore should control this game without much issue.

If the Ravens are in control and ahead, expect Mark Ingram to carry the ball. Lamar Jackson is going to be a very popular daily fantasy play in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend. Instead of leveraging the fantasy field with Ingram, I will hedge by taking the over on this prop. The two players are diametrically opposed in that Ingram will not hit a ceiling fantasy game if Jackson does and vice versa. Ingram can certainly exceed 66.5 rushing yards in a ceiling Lamar Jackson game.

What should we say about the Bengals? Cincinnati allows north of 100 rushing yards per game to running backs on defense. Four different teams already have rushed for greater than 200 yards against Cincinnati. They have not won a game. While the Bengals keep bungling, I am taking the over on Ingram’s rushing prop.

My Pick: Over 66.5 Rushing Yards -114

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NFL Betting Picks Week 10 — WR Player Prop for Rams at Steelers

Cooper Kupp Over/Under 6.5 Receptions (DraftKings)

This could possibly be my least favorite prop but one where sports betting sites seem to be sending mixed messages. For receptions, money is being bet on the under for 6.5 catches. Yet, on DraftKings, the 84.5 receiving yards prop for Kupp has a -130 price for the over. So, the public thinks Kupp will exceed 84.5 receiving yards but will not exceed six catches. Interesting.

Cooper owns a 13.7 yards per catch average this season. Six receptions give him about 82 yards for that average. Of course, projections are not that simple. Yet, in a game where Kupp might be peppered because of a ferocious Steelers’ front placing Jared Goff under siege — how can Kupp accumulate this many yards? This might not be pretty but I am going to take the over on 6.5 catches.

My Pick: Over 6.5 Receptions +113

Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 10 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 10 betting picks.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

joeycis
Joe Cistaro (joeycis)

A high school mathematics teacher from New Jersey, Joe Cistaro (aka joeycis) is a lifelong fantasy sports fan. As a member of the RotoGrinders community, Joe cut his teeth writing for the website through the blogging program. Previously engaging the community with articles such as Home Run Derby and Finding Paydirt, Joe now focuses his time on sports betting content for both the NFL and the PGA TOUR. Follow Joe on Twitter – @ JoeCistaro