NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 12
Happy Saturday, Grinders! After a second two for three performance in a row, I am looking towards the Week 12 slate for my first clean sweep in awhile. Kyle Allen, in a dreadful performance, was able to put up enough yardage to finish over his passing prop. Sony Michel predictably stayed below his rushing prop in a tough matchup against the Eagles. In the same game, Julian Edelman was my only miss — staying below the 6.5 receptions mark. The wave of momentum feels pretty strong and I plan on riding it to a Week 12 sweep.
Check out our Week 12 Lines and Betting Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into all of the online sportsbooks. Here are my three favorite props for NFL Week 12.
NFL Betting Picks Week 12 — QB Player Prop for Raiders at Jets
Sam Darnold Over/Under 239.5 Passing Yards (use our FanDuel to get these odds)
Post kissing disease, Sam Darnold — combined with a soft schedule — has reinvigorated the Jets’ offense. While you come to terms with my use of reinvigorate let’s focus on the facts. The Jets are moving the ball more effectively as Darnold continues to develop in his second year. Darnold is using his tight ends, feeding Jamison Crowder, and stabilizing the offense with an improved on-target percentage (68.15%).
The soft schedule — for Jets’ passing purposes — persists this week when the Raiders travel to New Jersey. Per RotoGrinders GridironIQ tool, the Raiders are a strong matchup for QB fantasy points (6th) and pass-catching options (8th for WR and 4th for TE). The Raiders allow an average of 264.1 passing yards per game — a boon to Darnold’s prospects. The Jets could attempt to establish the run but might find themselves in a shootout because of an ineffective passing defense. Give me the over on FanDuel.
My Pick: Over 239.5 Passing Yards -112
NFL Betting Picks Week 12 — RB Player Prop for Dolphins at Browns
Nick Chubb Over/Under 95.5 Rushing Yards (use our DraftKings to get these odds)
Nick Chubb will unquestionably be a popular daily fantasy option in the most favorable of matchups against the Dolphins. The Dolphins are unsurprisingly towards the bottom of the NFL in many rush defense categories. The Dolphins — usually behind — allow 31.7 rushing attempts per game and 4.7 rushing yards per attempt. They allow a sixth-worst 27.78 fantasy points per game to the running back position despite only allowing six total rushing touchdowns. Yardage is an issue for Miami.
Game-log watchers might be concerned by Chubb’s lack of production and could attribute it to the return of Kareem Hunt. Looking a bit deeper, Chubb is still seeing plenty of touches — carrying the ball 27 times against the stout Steelers in a blowout victory. The Browns are projected to beat the Dolphins up at home — favored by 10.5 points on DraftKings at the time of this writing. The script suggests heavy usage for Chubb and the matchup suggests better efficiency. Give me the over.
My Pick: Over 95.5 Rushing Yards -112
NFL Betting Picks Week 12 — WR Player Prop for Buccaneers at Falcons
Julio Jones Over/Under 95.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
The space between Miami and Tampa Bay is relatively small. The difference between the Tampa Bay passing defense and that of Miami’s is significantly smaller. The Tampa Bay passing defense is horrendous while their rushing defense remains stout. Allowing only 651 total rushing yards to running backs in 2019, most opponents look to attack Tampa Bay through the air. Most teams do so without much resistance.
Consequently, the Falcons’ running game is out of sorts with injuries to both Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith. As a chalky DFS play last week, Brian Hill failed miserably. Atlanta cannot count on a rushing attack and instead will likely need to lean on their high-volume passing attack going forward. Without Austin Hooper, the Falcons’ opportunities should funnel heavily between Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones.
Jones carries a 23.1% target share into Week 12 after hitting the 40% mark of air yard share in the Falcons’ last three contests. Ryan will use his favorite target early and often in another game that could turn into a shootout. I will take Julio to go over his prop.
My Pick: Over 95.5 Receiving Yards -112
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 10 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 12 betting picks.
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