NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 11
Happy Saturday, Grinders! Last weekend, Danny Dimes left no doubt when carving up the Jets’ secondary in a loss to the crosstown rivals. Mark Ingram never needed to carry the ball as the Ravens decimated the Bengals very early so he stayed under. Going into the afternoon, I needed Cooper Kupp to get over 6.5 catches to secure a 2 for 3 day. Anybody find Cooper Kupp yet? Looking to bounce back this week, let’s pick out some props across sports betting sites.
Check out our Week 11 Lines and Betting Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into all of the online sportsbooks. Here are my three favorite props for NFL Week 11.
NFL Betting Picks Week 11 — QB Player Prop for Falcons at Panthers
Kyle Allen Over/Under 248.5 Passing Yards (use our FanDuel to get these odds)
Kyle Allen is projected to be a popular daily fantasy option on Sunday as a home favorite against the woeful Falcons’ defense. While last weekend saw the Falcons reinvigorated against Drew Brees, Atlanta will need to show us far more on the defensive side of the ball to be considered an imposing defense. Instead, the entire Panthers’ offense should be considered strong options on Sunday.
While Kyle Allen does not possess a game log filled with massive yardage performances, the Atlanta Falcons do. The Falcons, though, boast these massage yardage performances on the defensive side of the ledger. Four quarterbacks crossed the 290-yard mark with one additional quarterback overcoming this number. A couple of the lower passing totals were due to a blowout performance from the other team where the quarterback never needed to throw the ball.
The Falcons are in the bottom five when it comes to fantasy scoring for quarterbacks and wide receivers per RotoGrinders GridironIQ. Kyle Allen has not been efficient with only 6.8 yards per passing attempt this season. With the volume of attempts though and a boost in efficiency due to the Falcons’ defense (7.9 Y/PA), Allen should approach this number if the Falcons can keep up with the Panthers. The Panthers allow 25.3 points per game on defense. With a 49-point implied total, this game very well might shoot out. I will take the over on this prop for Allen.
My Pick: Over 248.5 Passing Yards -108
NFL Betting Picks Week 11 — RB Player Prop for Patriots at Eagles
Sony Michel Over/Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
The Ravens laid the smackdown on the Patriots last Sunday night, rendering Sony Michel rushing attempts unnecessary. Michel carried the ball four times for a whopping 18 rushing yards. His role for the Patriots is pretty clear — run the ball on the goal line or when the Patriots are ahead. I can’t imagine Michel will see 44 goal line carries this weekend.
Additionally, the Eagles give up very little on the ground to opposing rushing attacks. Philadelphia has only allowed 581 rushing yards this season — through nine games. Efficiency does not exist versus the Eagles — not that it matters to Sony Michel. Michel’s 3.3 yards per attempt this season is a big drop from last season and his longest run — 26 yards — does not inspire confidence in a big play helpin to topple this prop. In a game where the Patriots will have to pass the ball, I love the under on this rushing prop.
My Pick: Under 43.5 Rushing Yards -118
NFL Betting Picks Week 11 — WR Player Prop for Patriots at Eagles
Julian Edelman Over/Under 6.5 Receptions (use our DraftKings to get these odds)
The weather will be rather blustery for this game with potential wind issues. While this is a concern for the long passing game, the New England Patriots do not necessarily love to take downfield shots anymore. As previously mentioned, the Patriots will likely struggle to establish a successful ground attack. So, what does that leave Tom Brady with?
This leaves a short passing attack likely highlighted by his two favorite targets — James White and Julian Edelman. Edelman already has 90 targets on the season with seven catches per game. When you factor in the game’s context — bad weather for downfield passing, inability to run the football, a capable opponent — I find it difficult to fathom a script that does not favor Edelman being targeted heavily in the passing game. Considering his average is north of this prop, I will take the over on Edelman’s receptions in a strong context for a chain-moving receiver.
My Pick: Over 6.5 Receptions +107
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 10 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 11 betting picks.
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