NFL Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 8
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
This past weekend was a good example of how you sometimes do not want to overthink things, and certainly don’t need to be contrarian in GPPs for the sake of being contrarian. As I alluded to in my column last week, I thought the Rams were the slam dunk top defense in Week 7. Not only were they the top defense, but they came at a depressed price point due to a tough early season schedule. Obviously things don’t always work out, but in this case the Rams produced a Week 7 best 25 fantasy points. I used them universally on all of my lineups on both sites. But when looking at ownership percentages, they were 32% owned in the DK Millionaire Maker and 27.9% owned in the FD Sunday Million. So just by making the obvious choice, you were able to gain an advantage on over two-thirds of the field. Even in the massive DK double ups, I saw the Rams D owned 50-60%. Obviously that’s high, but you still gained an advantage on almost half the field.
Week 7 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 7:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.44
Other Defenses to Target: 7.71
All Favorites: 8.60
All Home Teams: 7.55
All Teams: 7.19
Week 7 Top Scoring Defenses: St Louis (25 pts), New York Giants (22 pts), Miami (12 pts)
The defense that fit the criteria had a pretty strong week, hitting on two of the top three scoring defenses of the week. I’ve already spent a paragraph discussing the Rams above, but they finished as the top scoring defense in Week 7. The Dolphins also turned out to be a strong pick, scoring a defensive TD and finishing with 12 fantasy points. It would have likely been an even stronger effort, but the Dolphins got out such a big lead that they were mostly playing soft coverage the whole 2nd half, leading to some points allowed. The one miss of the week was the Redskins defense. I thought there may be some upside facing Jameis Winston, who had allowed several strong outings to fantasy defenses this season so far. But, the Redskins defense is just not very good overall.
The other defense to target for Week 7 was the Carolina Panthers. Carolina was in a great situation facing the mistake prone Eagles offense. They ended up finishing with a modest eight fantasy points, mainly from sacking Sam Bradford five times. They just were unable to build upon the early interception they were gifted on a Jordan Matthews dropped pass. The Panthers did hold the Eagles to only 16 points, but finished with only that one turnover.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
St. Louis Rams ($5100 FD, $3200 DK) vs San Francisco- the Rams are eight-point favorites with a total of 39.5. There is only one defense that fits the criteria this week, but it is a strong one. Coming off an impressive 25 point performance, the Rams again make this column as the top defense of the week. Their matchup this week may be even better than last week as the Niners rank last in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense. The spread and total for this game have the Niners projected to score less than 16 points. The Niners’ offense has not turned the ball over a ton, but they have allowed the fourth-most sacks in the league with 25 sacks allowed through seven games. The Rams are not as cheap as they were last week, but they still come at a discount from the highest priced teams. I think you could make an argument that the Rams have the 2nd best defense in the NFL right now. I think they are again the best cash game and GPP play this week.
Other Defense to Target
Seattle Seahawks ($5200 FD, $3700 DK) at Dallas- the Seahawks defense has not been as good as in years past so far this season, but they still have produced as a top 3 fantasy defense. They are 3rd in total defense and 5th in scoring defense. I don’t typically like them on the road, but this week this face a Dallas offense that is still without Tony Romo and may not have Dez Bryant back yet either. In Week 7, Dallas turned to Matt Cassel at QB, who proceeded to throw 3 interceptions. The Giants defense was able to rack up 22 fantasy points last week against Dallas. In their previous game in Week 5, Dallas allowed 14 fantasy points to the Patriots. I think there is a lot of upside with the Seattle defense this week. I would rank them slightly below St. Louis based on price, but I think they make a strong, safe option this week.
Denver Broncos ($4700 FD, $2900 DK) vs Green Bay- I said in previous columns that I would have a hard time not including the Broncos is this column every week. This week, I was prepared to not include them, as they face a very good Green Bay offense. Then I saw their depressed price point and felt they warranted consideration. On FD, there are 7 teams priced higher than Denver, and another 3 teams priced the same. On DK, there are 10 teams priced higher than Denver, and one team priced the same. You will not find the best defense in the NFL priced this low again. The Broncos lead the league with 26 sacks and 17 takeaways. Their upside is probably limited this week as Green Bay does not turn the ball over much at all. But this game is in Denver, and Rodgers is coming off a game where he turned the ballover 3 times. I don’t love Denver this week, but I think you could do a lot worse at this price point.
Tennessee Titans ($4500 FD, $2500 DK) at Houston- With my last pick of the week I wanted to highlight a cheaper defense that is likely to be very low owned. The Titans defense has actually been average to above average this season. They ranked 5th in total defense and 16th in scoring defense. Their opponent this week is the Houston Texans, who have move the ball pretty well this season (often playing from behind), but are in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense. They also turned the ball over 11 times. I think this is a situation though where Houston’s offense after losing Arian Foster, does not have the talent to exploit Tennessee’s weakness against the run. If Houston has trouble running the ball, Tennessee ranks 2nd in the NFL in pass defense this year. Hoyer has only thrown 3 interceptions, but I think that stat has been a little lucky considering his is only completing 58.9% of his passes, which is 5th worst in the NFL. I think there is some upside this week in Tennessee as a GPP option facing a one-dimensional offense.