The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Broncos vs. Patriots
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Broncos vs. Patriots, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Broncos vs. Patriots
Merry Christmas Eve!
I hope the day is treating you well so far. If not, I hope this article can at least help point you in the right direction for tonight’s showdown slate. The Broncos and Patriots have very different motivations at this point of the season. The Broncos are 7-7 in the standings and have about a 25% chance of making the playoffs. The Patriots are 3-11 in the standings and are counting down the days until the end of the season. This game features a 7-point spread and a 35.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Rhamondre Stevenson – Out
Juju Smith-Schuster – Out
Hunter Henry – Out
Denver Broncos Preview
This is an important game for the Broncos, as their chances of making the playoffs fall to 2% with a loss. I’ve been betting Russell Wilson unders most of the season and I see no reason to get away from that in this game. The Broncos are a run-first team that rarely throws the ball down the field (with the exception of a bomb to Courtland Sutton once or twice a game). Wilson has only thrown for more than 225 yards one time in his last 11 games. His rushing has kept his fantasy production afloat, but he can’t rely on rushing touchdowns each week. The Patriots aren’t all that good against the pass (21st in DVOA), but they have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Sutton has been a lot more productive than Jerry Jeudy this season, but their underlying usage hasn’t been all that different. Sutton has a 21% target share and a 40% air yards share, while Jeudy has an 18% target share and a 31% air yards share. I know there aren’t a lot of strong plays in this game, but it’s tough for me to spend $11,000 on Sutton on DraftKings, at least in cash games and small-field tournaments. He’s obviously viable in large-field tournaments given his upside. It doesn’t feel great, but I will side with Jeudy over Sutton when factoring in salaries.
Marvin Mims and Lil’Jordan Humphrey will WR3 split snaps, but we haven’t seen anything suggesting that they will be very involved in terms of targets. If this game goes as planned, we could see a limited number of pass attempts from Wilson. It doesn’t get much better for Denver’s tight ends, as the Patriots have held the position to the 3rd fewest fantasy points this season. Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull have been splitting routes at tight end. They are both very cheap, but one will likely need a touchdown to be a big difference maker on the slate.
Javonte Williams was shut down by the Lions last week but has had at least 14 touches in each of the last 4 games. Jaleel McLaughlin will mix in here and there, and Samaje Perine is used in obvious passing situations, but there’s a path for Williams to see 20 touches if the Broncos are playing with a lead. The problem is that the Patriots are 1st in both DVOA against the run and rush EPA this season. Perhaps the Broncos will look to get their running backs more involved through the air, as New England has allowed the 9th most receiving yards to enemy backs. I like the idea of building lineups with two of these three running backs.
The Broncos’ defense is not only in play, but there’s a chance they could lead the slate in fantasy points. They have done a great job of generating turnovers in the second half of the season, and Bailey Zappe has thrown an interception in 4 of his last 5 games. Kicking points could be more valuable on a low-scoring slate like this, which makes Wil Lutz a strong option in all formats.
New England Patriots Preview
The Patriots don’t have a lot to play for, but they can at least play the role of spoiler. We’ve seen many great games between these teams, but that was back when it was Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. It’s a bit of a different story at quarterback for the Patriots these days. Bailey Zappe did have a nice game against the Steelers, but he struggled mightily against the Chiefs and Chargers. The Broncos’ defense doesn’t look great on paper, but they’ve actually been tough against the pass in the second half of the season. Zappe is viable given the nature of showdown slates, but he’s far from a priority.
Do you know who the leading target-earner has been with Zappe under center this season? Ezekiel Elliott! But we will get to him in a bit. After Zeke, it has been Hunter Henry, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Demario Douglas, and then Tyquan Thornton. Smith-Schuster has been ruled out of this game, which should help condense the target tree. The way I see it, there is an obvious target among the bunch.
The Broncos have allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. I’m all aboard the Henry train in this one and don’t mind using him at MVP on DraftKings. Douglas and Parker project better than Henry, and I will have some exposure in large-field tournaments, but I’ll side with Henry in my main lineup. Thornton is cheap enough on DraftKings ($1,200) that he deserves consideration. I suppose Mike Gesicki could be a sneaky tournament option as well.
Update: Hunter Henry has been ruled out. Mike Gesicki is now my favorite point-per-dollar play of the slate and is my favorite contrarian MVP on DraftKings.
With Rhamondre Stevenson still out, we should see a ton of Elliott once again. Kevin Harris did vulture a touchdown last week against the Chiefs, but he only had 4 touches in the game. Zeke still played on 73% of the snaps and handled 16 touches. As noted above, Zappe has peppered him with targets, which gives Zeke a path to success regardless of how the game plays out. I love the spot for him, as the Broncos are dead last in DVOA against the run this season. He deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
The Patriots’ defense doesn’t have a lot to play for, but they have continued to put up strong performances. With this potentially being a very low-scoring game, I don’t mind looking their way in tournaments. Kicker Chad Ryland has only scored more than 6 fantasy points one time in his last 11 games. That’s not exactly what we are hoping for.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The Broncos’ side of the ball is going to be difficult to predict. They rotate in three running backs, and their passing attack hasn’t exactly been lethal this season. On the Patriots’ side of the ball, there are two obvious targets in my eyes: Hunter Henry and Ezekiel Elliott. I like the idea of playing them both and then filling out the rest of the lineup with players from the Broncos. And that includes the kicker and the defense.
Broncos-Patriots DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | NE | RB | 16.89 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.66 | $12,500 | 1.35 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | QB | 16.30 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 1.43 | $15,500 | 1.05 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | RB | 13.61 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.45 | $12,000 | 1.13 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 11.34 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.03 | $15,000 | 0.76 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | QB | 11.32 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.29 | $13,500 | 0.84 |
| Demario Douglas | NE | WR | 10.94 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.61 | $10,000 | 1.09 |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | WR | 9.73 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.22 | $11,000 | 0.88 |
| Broncos | DEN | DST | 9.04 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.67 | $9,000 | 1.00 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | 7.49 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.44 | $9,500 | 0.79 |
| DeVante Parker | NE | WR | 7.21 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.44 | $8,000 | 0.90 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 6.21 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 0.89 | $8,000 | 0.78 |
| Samaje Perine | DEN | RB | 6.21 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.73 | $9,000 | 0.69 |
| Chad Ryland | NE | K | 6.05 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.26 | $8,500 | 0.71 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | RB | 5.88 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 3.27 | $7,000 | 0.84 |
| Patriots | NE | DST | 5.55 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.39 | $8,500 | 0.65 |
| Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | 3.82 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.36 | $6,500 | 0.59 |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | DEN | WR | 3.70 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.54 | $6,500 | 0.57 |
| Kevin Harris | NE | RB | 3.57 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.19 | $6,000 | 0.60 |
| Tyquan Thornton | NE | WR | 2.82 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.35 | $7,500 | 0.38 |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 2.78 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.07 | $7,500 | 0.37 |
| Mike Gesicki | NE | TE | 2.43 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.52 | $7,000 | 0.35 |
| Lucas Krull | DEN | TE | 2.17 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.71 | $6,000 | 0.36 |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE | WR | 2.04 | $200 | $300 | 10.20 | $5,000 | 0.41 |
| Pharaoh Brown | NE | TE | 1.65 | $600 | $900 | 2.75 | $5,000 | 0.33 |
| Jalen Reagor | NE | WR | 1.65 | $200 | $300 | 8.25 | $5,500 | 0.30 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Hunter Henry: $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD
I’m writing this before the first set of ownership projections have been released, but given his subpar projection, there’s a chance he could get overlooked in this game (especially on DraftKings). As noted earlier, the Broncos are dead last in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. On top of that, Henry has seen more targets (19) with Zappe under center than any of the other pass catchers on the team.
Update: Hunter Henry has been ruled out. Mike Gesicki is now my favorite point-per-dollar play of the slate and is my favorite contrarian MVP on DraftKings.
Rams vs. Saints Player Pick’em
Season record: 32-16
29-8 over the last 37 games
Ezekiel Elliott more than 31.5 receiving yards (1.75x) – Sleeper
The props haven’t slowed down and hopefully won’t anytime soon. Chris Olave hit his receiving prop early in Thursday night’s game against the Rams. We’ll look to keep it going with Zeke to get more than 31.5 receiving yards. He has covered this number in 3 of his last 5 games and is essentially playing three-fourths of the snaps now that Stevenson is out. He leads the team in targets (20) with Zappe under center, and the Broncos have allowed the 7th most receiving yards to running backs this season. This is also a game where we expect the Patriots to be playing with a deficit.
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