The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Welcome back to another edition of the NFL Grind Down. We have the Buccaneers (8-6) and the Cowboys (6-8) for Sunday Night Football. Believe it or not, the Buccaneers are leading the NFC South with 3 games to play. The Cowboys haven’t officially been eliminated from the playoffs, but they would need to win out and get a lot of help from the other teams in the NFC. Tonight’s game in Dallas features a 4.5-point spread and a 48-point total.
Key Injuries
Cade Otton – Out
Dak Prescott – Out
Jalen Brooks – Out
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
The Buccaneers have been a fun team to watch this season. Despite numerous injuries (especially on offense), they have averaged 28.8 points per game, the 4th-best mark in the NFL. A large part of that has to do with the play of Baker Mayfield, who is having the best season of his career. He’s not only had a high floor each week but has topped 27 fantasy points in 7 games this season. He’s firmly in play at the multiplier positions, as the Cowboys have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Buccaneers over the last 4 games:
Mike Evans: 28% target share, 46% air yards share, 33% first-read rate
Jalen McMillan: 14% target share, 22% air yards share, 13% first-read rate
Sterling Shepard: 18% target share, 15% air yards share, 20% first-read rate
Cade Otton: 14% target share, 13% air yards share, 12% first-read rate
With Cade Otton doubtful, Payne Durham will serve as the TE1 for the Buccaneers. He’s extremely cheap (especially on DraftKings) and the top value play on the slate. He’s unlikely to command the same type of target share as Otton, which means we can give small boosts to the wide receivers as well. Mike Evans boasts a massive 28% target share over the last 4 games and needs 251 receiving yards over the last 3 games to keep his 1,000-yard streak alive. It’s a good matchup, as the Cowboys have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Jalen McMillan has had a couple of big weeks this season, but I’d rather chase the underlying volume with Sterling Shepard at a cheaper price point.
The Buccaneers have had a tremendous rushing attack (especially in the second half of the season) and get to face the Cowboys, who are 30th in PFF’s grades against the run and 32nd in EPA against the run. Bucky Irving and Rachaad White have both had massive fantasy outings in recent weeks. Both are viable, but I do have a difficult time rostering them together. If one has a ceiling game, it will be tough for the other to have a ceiling game. I will make a rule in LineupHQ to have a maximum of 1 in each lineup.
The Buccaneers have struggled defensively all season. I understand they are facing Cooper Rush, but I am expecting this to be a high-scoring game. Kicker Chase McLaughlin is viable, but he’ll likely need 3+ field goals to be on the optimal lineup.
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Dallas Cowboys Preview
The Cowboys have very little chance of making the playoffs, but they have actually played better over the last few games. Cooper Rush has topped 20 fantasy points in 2 of his last 5 games and has thrown multiple touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games. He draws one of the best possible matchups tonight and is playing at home, which is typically a great recipe for fantasy production. On the season, the Buccaneers are 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Cowboys over the last 4 games:
CeeDee Lamb: 28% target share, 25% air yards share, 34% first-read rate
Jalen Tolbert: 9% target share, 15% air yards share, 9% first-read rate
Brandin Cooks: 15% target share, 26% air yards share, 14% first-read rate
Jake Ferguson: 15% target share, 11% air yards share, 21% first-read rate
CeeDee Lamb is one of my favorite MVP/CPT targets tonight. Over the last 4 games, he boasts a 28% target share and a 34% first-read rate. He’s facing a defense that has allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Brandin Cooks quietly has a 26% air yards share during that stretch and could see more playing time with Jalen Brooks out. I prefer him over Jalen Tolbert, especially in tournaments. With that said, the matchup is so good that all of these receivers are viable. Jake Ferguson has underwhelmed recently, but he’s been the first read on 21% of dropbacks in the last few games. The Buccaneers are even worse against tight ends than wide receivers.
Rico Dowdle has been terrific over the last 3 games, averaging over 20 fantasy points per contest. He’s racked up touch totals of 25, 19, and 25 during that stretch. The Buccaneers are worse against the pass than they are against the run, but it’s not exactly a poor matchup. Tampa Bay is 25th in PFF’s grades against the run and 14th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. I prefer the passing attack myself, but there’s certainly a path for Dowdle in this game.
Much like the Buccaneers, I am happy to fade the Cowboys D/ST. Kicker Brandon Aubrey is in play for both cash games and tournaments.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The first step that I will take tonight in LineupHQ is to make a group with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White to have a maximum of 1. I don’t want lineups that have both of Tampa Bay’s running backs. I’m hoping the Buccaneers can jump out to a lead and force the Cowboys to air it out. I’m taking my chances with a fade of Rico Dowdle. On DraftKings, I love the idea of using Payne Durham at CPT.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | TB | WR | 18.89 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.78 | $15,500 | 1.22 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 18.19 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.89 | $14,500 | 1.25 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 17.97 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.73 | $15,000 | 1.20 |
| Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | 17.01 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.81 | $13,000 | 1.31 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | QB | 16.31 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.90 | $12,000 | 1.36 |
| Bucky Irving | TB | RB | 15.74 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.75 | $12,500 | 1.26 |
| Rachaad White | TB | RB | 12.69 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.59 | $11,000 | 1.15 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 10.65 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 2.22 | $8,000 | 1.33 |
| Jalen McMillan | TB | WR | 9.53 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.36 | $10,000 | 0.95 |
| Sterling Shepard | TB | WR | 7.96 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 2.34 | $7,500 | 1.06 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 7.85 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.51 | $9,000 | 0.87 |
| Brandin Cooks | DAL | WR | 7.43 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.13 | $9,500 | 0.78 |
| Chase McLaughlin | TB | K | 7.26 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.45 | $9,000 | 0.81 |
| Buccaneers | TB | DST | 5.97 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.36 | $8,500 | 0.70 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 5.21 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.45 | $8,500 | 0.61 |
| Payne Durham | TB | TE | 5.20 | $200 | $300 | 26.00 | $5,000 | 1.04 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 4.77 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.19 | $8,000 | 0.60 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 4.76 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.59 | $7,000 | 0.68 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | RB | 3.35 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.20 | $7,000 | 0.48 |
| Sean Tucker | TB | RB | 2.92 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.22 | $7,500 | 0.39 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 2.30 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.28 | $6,000 | 0.38 |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 2.07 | $400 | $600 | 5.18 | $5,500 | 0.38 |
| Ko Kieft | TB | TE | 1.36 | $200 | $300 | 6.80 | $5,500 | 0.25 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Brandon Aubrey: $5,200 DK / $9,000 FD
Given all of the elite spends in this game, the mid-range options are going to get overlooked. I generally shy away from kickers on teams that aren’t favored, but Brandon Aubrey might be the best kicker in the game, and we know the Cowboys will have no issue moving the ball. If the game is competitive, I could see 3 or 4 field goals for Aubrey.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 27-22
Mike Evans more than 84.5 receiving yards (1.71x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We are on a cold streak at the moment, but that’s the up-and-down nature of the prop world. We will look to bounce back with Mike Evans, who has an elite matchup against the Cowboys. Their defense has been better the last few games, but they have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. The Buccaneers are missing two of their top wideouts in Chris Godwin and Cade Otton. Evans is also looking to extend his streak of 1,000-yard seasons.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus