The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Buccaneers vs. Falcons
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Buccaneers vs. Falcons, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks that we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites, like Sleeper Fantasy, ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Buccaneers vs. Falcons
We are back for another edition of Thursday Night Football. We’ve had a lot of bad Thursday games over the years, but we could have a good one on our hands this week. The Buccaneers and Falcons are divisional rivals and both have their sights set on the postseason. The Buccaneers are 3-1 in the standings, while the Falcons are sitting at 2-2. This game features a 1.5-point spread and a 43.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Jalen McMillan – Out
Trey Palmer – Out
Bijan Robinson – Questionable [limited practice Tuesday]
Ray-Ray McCloud – Questionable [limited practice Tuesday]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
The Buccaneers haven’t had much success on the ground over the last few years. Through the first 4 games, they are 6th in pass rate and 2nd in pass rate above expectation. This has been great for Baker Mayfield, who has already put up two slate-breaking performances (30 fantasy points in Week 1 and 32 fantasy points in Week 4). He struggled against the Broncos but has otherwise been terrific this season. This week, he squares off against the Falcons, who are below the league average in PFF’s grades against the pass, EPA against the pass, and pressure rate. Given his willingness to run (2 rushing touchdowns this season), he’s viable at MVP and Captain.
The Buccaneers have a concentrated passing attack, but let’s take a look at the underlying usage of their wideouts:
Mike Evans: 80% route percentage, 21% target rate, 43% air yards share
Chris Godwin: 78% route percentage, 26% target rate, 27% air yards share
Jalen McMillan: 48% route percentage, 5% target rate, 13% air yards share
Cade Otton: 70% route percentage, 16% target rate, 11% air yards share
An incredible 47% of the team’s targets and 70% of the team’s air yards have gone to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this season. With Evans set to square off against top cornerback A.J. Terrell, and with Evans, McMillan, and Trey Palmer all nursing injuries, this seems like an obvious Godwin spot. He has lined up in the slot 65% of the time this season, producing many easy catches over the middle of the field. In 4 games this season, he has caught 27-of-34 targets for 322 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Cade Otton has strong underlying usage, and his expected fantasy points per game are much higher than his actual output. This is a strong matchup, as the Falcons have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Given all of the injuries, he could end up seeing a higher target share this week. I am writing this article early Wednesday, and McMillan was just ruled out. If Palmer doesn’t clear concussion protocol (unlikely on a short week), Sterling Shepard would slide into the WR3 role. He’s only $1,600 on DraftKings.
Editor’s note: Palmer has been ruled out.
We are starting to see a shift in Tampa Bay’s backfield. Rachaad White has averaged a measly 2.8 yards per carry this season. He was a great fantasy option last year, but that’s not because he was efficient with his touches. It was because he didn’t have competition for touches and was a big part of the passing game. This year is much different, as Bucky Irving has looked great with his opportunities. Moving forward, I expect something close to a 50/50 split in terms of touches. A matchup against the Falcons isn’t perfect, but Atlanta is missing one of its best run-stoppers in Trey Andersen.
In my sack potential column in the NFL First Look, the Buccaneers are 5th this week. This is largely due to the fact that the Falcons have one of PFF’s worst pass-blocking grades in the NFL this season. I don’t love either defense here, but there’s a path for Tampa Bay. Kicker Chase McLaughlin is a perfect 7-for-7 this season and is a strong value play on this slate.
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Atlanta Falcons Preview
The Falcons have arguably had the toughest opening schedule of any team in the NFL. They have faced the Steelers, Eagles, Chiefs, and Saints. Somehow, they have managed to escape murderer’s row with a 2-2 record. While they have opened up the offense more than last season, they are only 17th in pass rate and 21st in pass rate over expectation. Kirk Cousins is 18th among quarterbacks in yards per attempt and has been held under 13 fantasy points in 3 of his first 4 games with the Falcons. While the Buccaneers have allowed a decent amount of fantasy points to quarterbacks, they are 4th in PFF’s grades against the pass and 13th in EPA against the pass. Cousins is viable, but he’s best suited as a play at UTIL.
Let’s look at the usage of Atlanta’s receiving room so far this season:
Drake London: 87% route percentage, 26% target rate, 37% air yards share
Darnell Mooney: 91% route percentage, 19% target rate, 33% air yards share
Ray-Ray McCloud: 79% route percentage, 19% target rate, 20% air yards share
Kyle Pitts: 68% route percentage, 11% target rate, 13% air yards share
Drake London leads the team in target rate, air yards share, and fantasy points per game. It’s also worth noting that his expected fantasy points per game are higher than his actual output, so perhaps we will see even more production moving forward. This isn’t a great matchup, but London has seen 28 targets in the last 3 games combined. Darnell Mooney is seeing a lot of targets downfield and has a 24% first-read rate this season. Ray-Ray McCloud also sees many targets downfield. The calling card for Todd Bowles and his defenses is keeping everything in front of them. I hate to say it, but the matchup sets up fairly well for Kyle Pitts. He’s coming off a goose egg last week against the Saints.
I’ve been on #TeamBijan ever since the Falcons drafted him last year. Nobody was happy with his usage in the offense last season. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier were essentially in a 50/50 split. With the departure of Arthur Smith, we all expected that to change this season. However, Allgeier has been very involved and hear me out, his usage has been warranted. Allgeier has averaged 6.1 yards per carry and has caught all 3 of his targets, while Robinson has averaged 4.1 yards per carry and has caught 15-of-16 targets. While Vita Vea was able to suit up for the Buccaneers last week, they are still missing key pieces up front and are dead last in EPA against the run this season.
The Falcons are 28th in PFF’s pass rush grades, while the Buccaneers offensive line has allowed the 2nd lowest pressure rate. I’m not forcing the Falcons D/ST into my lineups on this slate. Kicker Younghoe Koo is quickly becoming an Atlanta legend and is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I don’t have any strong takes on stacking in this game. However, I do have strong takes on individual players. Chris Godwin is easily my favorite non-quarterback target on the slate, I won’t be rostering much of these two defenses, I won’t be using Kirk Cousins at MVP or Captain, and I will be overweight on Younghoe Koo.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 20.94 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 2.14 | $14,500 | 1.44 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 18.58 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.94 | $16,000 | 1.16 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | WR | 17.08 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.71 | $12,500 | 1.37 |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 16.93 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.92 | $11,500 | 1.47 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | QB | 15.74 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.83 | $13,500 | 1.17 |
| Mike Evans | TB | WR | 15.53 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.52 | $14,000 | 1.11 |
| Rachaad White | TB | RB | 13.33 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.96 | $10,500 | 1.27 |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 12.29 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.71 | $8,000 | 1.54 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | ATL | WR | 10.61 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 3.12 | $7,500 | 1.41 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 8.64 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.54 | $9,000 | 0.96 |
| Bucky Irving | TB | RB | 8.30 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.30 | $10,000 | 0.83 |
| Younghoe Koo | ATL | K | 7.51 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.39 | $9,500 | 0.79 |
| Cade Otton | TB | TE | 7.41 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.85 | $8,000 | 0.93 |
| Buccaneers | TB | DST | 7.40 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 2.06 | $8,500 | 0.87 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 7.33 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.53 | $9,000 | 0.81 |
| Chase McLaughlin | TB | K | 6.79 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.36 | $9,500 | 0.71 |
| Falcons | ATL | DST | 5.14 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.17 | $8,500 | 0.60 |
| Trey Palmer | TB | WR | 4.64 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.78 | $7,500 | 0.62 |
| Jalen McMillan | TB | WR | 4.09 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.36 | $6,000 | 0.68 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Cade Otton: $4,000 DK / $8,000 FD
Even without the injuries at wide receiver, I would have been interested in Cade Otton against the Falcons. His underlying usage has been strong all season (70% route participation, 16% target share, and an 11% air yards share). The Falcons have good outside cornerbacks, which forces targets underneath and over the middle of the field. Slot receivers and tight ends have had success against Atlanta, and I expect that to continue on Thursday night.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 12-2
Chris Godwin more than 66.5 receiving yards (1.69x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Chris Godwin is currently 7th or better among all wide receivers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He’s caught 27-of-34 targets this season for 322 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s seen at least 8 targets in every game so far and has a matchup that benefits him more than the other receivers. A.J. Terrell is an excellent outside cornerback and will spend a lot of time on Mike Evans, while Tampa Bay’s WR3 (Jalen McMillan) has already been ruled out.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus