The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Chiefs vs. Eagles
We have officially launched our new NFL DFS simulations tool: SimLabs. Try it now for FREE while it is still in beta!
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Chiefs vs. Eagles, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Chiefs vs. Eagles
We have a special treat on tap on Monday night, as we have a Super Bowl rematch between the Chiefs and Eagles. Both teams are coming off of a bye and are sitting atop their respective divisions. We know how good Andy Reid has been with two weeks to prepare in his career (28-4), but the Eagles will be a tough test on both sides of the ball. This should be a fun one for everyone if it lives up to the hype. The game features a 2.5-point spread and a 45.5-point total.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Despite losing key players each year, the Chiefs continue to have one of the best offenses in football. When you have Patrick Mahomes at center and Andy Reid at coach, I suppose that goes a long way. Mahomes has spread the ball around more than usual this season but has still topped 20 fantasy points in 5 of 9 games. He has already run for 258 yards this season and is on pace to set a career high in that regard. A matchup against the Eagles is actually better than you might expect, as Philadelphia is ranked 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. As always, Mahomes deserves consideration at MVP and Captain.
When it comes to the pass catchers for the Chiefs, it’s Travis Kelce and then everyone else. He has nearly twice as many targets as the next closest players on the Chiefs. Overall, he boasts a 24% target share and a 25% air yards share. He torched the Eagles in the Super Bowl so bad that all of us at the RotoGrinders party were screaming, “MAYBE TRY GUARDING THE OPPOSING TEAM’S BEST PLAYER.” Spoiler alert, our pleas did not work. The Eagles have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, so we could see another big game from Taylor Swift’s prince charming.
All of the metrics when targeting Rashee Rice are tremendous this season, but he continues to split time at wide receiver and has only seen more than 5 targets in 2 games all season. It’s promising that Mahomes is starting to look his way more in the red zone, but Rice will likely need to score a touchdown to pay off his elevated price point. Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman are all projected between 3.7 and 5.3 fantasy points in this game. We will also see snaps for Kadarius Toney and potentially for Richie James as well. Outside of Kelce, it’s really a guessing game when it comes to Kansas City’s pass catchers.
Isiah Pacheco is one of the toughest decision points on the slate. He is coming off of a season high in snaps and has taken full control of this backfield, but he draws one of his toughest matchups to date. The Eagles are ranked 2nd in DVOA against the run and 1st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. He’s a capable pass-catching running back but will likely need to find the end zone to end up on the optimal lineup. Call me crazy, but perhaps we finally see a bigger role for Jerick McKinnon. If the Chiefs can’t get much going on the ground, perhaps they use McKinnon a bit more in the passing game.
The Chiefs have a very talented defense and have averaged the 2nd-most sacks per game this season. However, the Eagles have a good offensive line and aren’t a turnover-prone team. I’m not saying no to Kansas City’s defense, but they aren’t a priority by any means. Harrison Butker is a strong option, especially in this matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
The Eagles are always a fun team to see on Showdown slates because they have a very concentrated offense. With Dallas Goedert set to miss some time, we could see an even more concentrated passing attack. Jalen Hurts has been a cheat code in fantasy football over the last few seasons. He has topped 20 fantasy points in 8 straight games, but that streak will be put to the test this week against the Chiefs. They have an elite pass rush and are ranked top 5 in DVOA against the pass, dropback EPA, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Despite the matchup, I view Hurts as the top overall play of the slate. We might see more mobility from him after the bye week.
Against the Cowboys, A.J. Brown was unable to continue his streak of games with 125+ yards, but he caught a touchdown and still ended up with 20 fantasy points. After seeing a pretty close split between Brown and DeVonta Smith last season, Brown has been the clear alpha this season. However, the Chiefs haven’t given up more than 80 yards to an opposing WR1 all season, and they have faced some good ones. When in doubt, Hurts usually looks to Brown, so I wouldn’t avoid him strictly due to the matchup. Smith has had some costly drops this season but does have 4 touchdowns and provides some nice leverage off of Brown.
With Goedert out, the Eagles will roll out a combination of Jack Stoll, Grant Calcaterra, and Albert Okwuegbunam at tight end. Yes, Albert O is on the Eagles (who am I kidding, I’m just finding out this news as well). I’m expecting Stoll and Calcaterra to get most of the snaps, and we know the Eagles like to target their tight ends. I like the idea of using one tight end in each lineup. Olamide Zaccheaus and Julio Jones will round out the wide receiver room. They are best suited as large-field tournament plays.
D’Andre Swift has had a much bigger role than you might expect. Since taking over as the RB1 in Week 2, he has averaged 20 touches per game. He has played on at least 65% of snaps in each of the last 3 games and has at least 2 receptions in 6 straight games. The downside with Swift is the “tush push.” Unlike most running backs, he’s not the preferred goal-line option on his team. He certainly has the best matchup of the skill position players, as the Chiefs are 30th in rush EPA this season. Kenneth Gainwell likely needs a touchdown to find his way onto the optimal lineup, but he has scored in 2 of the last 3 games.
We’ve seen the Broncos shut down the Chiefs offense, so I suppose we can look to the Eagles defense in large-field tournaments. Personally, I have a hard time clicking on these defenses when there are so many high-upside plays to choose from. Kicker Jake Elliott has averaged 10.3 fantasy points per game and is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
First of all, I’m throwing out the idea of building onslaught teams in this one. If we see one team get out to a big lead, we can expect a lot of production from the opposing team. It’s hard for me to see the Eagles or Chiefs completely failing in this spot. For that reason, I’m looking for more balanced builds. I plan to keep my MVP and Captain pool very tight, using only the quarterbacks, Brown, and Kelce. I’m also planning to be underweight on the defenses and overweight on the kickers.
Chiefs-Eagles DFS Salaries & Projections
|Player||Team||Pos||Proj||DK Sal||CPT Sal||DK/$||FD Sal||FD/$|
Jack Stoll: $3,200 DK / $5,500 FD
We currently have Stoll projected for very little ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I’m expecting the Eagles to use a committee at tight end, but I think Stoll will get the first crack at the TE1 gig with Goedert out. This is really just a bet on the position in an elite offense. With how tough the Chiefs have been against wide receivers, we could see some targets funnel to the tight ends.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Player Pick’em
Travis Kelce more than 0.5 Touchdowns (1.73x) – Sleeper
Wil Lutz came through for us last night, so let’s keep it going with Kelce. I usually like to side with yardage or kicking props, but this one stands out to me. Kelce is coming off of a season-low 4 targets, and his coach has had 2 weeks to figure out a way to get him the ball more. We know he’s the favorite target for Mahomes, and the matchup is certainly in his favor, as the Eagles have already given up 5 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.