The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Chiefs vs. Lions
The NFL is back baby! I don’t know about you, but I always have a bit of apprehension heading into a new season. Expectations are high, but unlike the other major sports, we only have 18 main slates to capitalize on in DFS. Luckily, we can accompany our classic slate play with the three primetime Showdown slates each week. And don’t worry, I have you covered for the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night Showdown slates this season.
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers – Lions at Chiefs
The Lions have high hopes entering the season. They were 9-8 in Dan Campbell’s second year and have far less competition in the NFC North thanks to that departure of Aaron Rodgers. The Lions will try to limit mistakes on offense and lean on their pass rush on defense. As far as turnover at the skill positions, the biggest change is at running back. D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams both have new homes, while the Lions welcome Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to Detroit.
The Chiefs are fresh off of another Super Bowl win and are the odds-on favorite to win it again this year. They arguably have the best quarterback and the best head coach in the league, which is a lethal combination. We shouldn’t expect too many changes from a play-calling perspective, but it’s worth noting that Matt Nagy will take over as the offensive coordinator, as Eric Bieniemy is now the signal-caller for Washington. The Chiefs offense returns most of the same starters, with the exception of Juju Smith-Schuster, who is now with the Patriots.
The spread for this game is down to 5.5 points, as there are some key injuries on both sides of the ball for Kansas City. Chris Jones has been ruled out (holding out for a new contract), while Travis Kelce was a late-week add to the injury report. The former improves the matchup for Detroit, while the absence of the latter would open up a ton of value for the Chiefs offense. Unfortunately, Kelce is shaping up to be a game-time decision, so we likely won’t know his status until an hour before kickoff. If active, he becomes one of the more intriguing spends, as his ceiling is unmatched by any player not named Patrick Mahomes, not to mention we could see an ownership discount. We do run the risk of him being limited or aggravating the injury though.
If Kelce ends up getting ruled out, this will be a spot to stack the Chiefs in Showdown contests. Personally, I would be looking to target one or two of the top projected Lions and then fill out the rest of the lineup with Mahomes and his weapons. Both quarterbacks set up to be priorities on the slate, and Amon-Ra St. Brown really pops on a full-PPR site like DraftKings. One player that is on my radar regardless of Kelce’s status is Skyy Moore, who expects to play more this season and run more routes over the middle of the field. Defenses and kickers are always intriguing Showdown targets, but their appeal also hinges on the availability of Kelce. If he’s out, I would prioritize the cheap wideouts from Kansas City over the defenses and kickers.
Chiefs vs. Lions Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 18.70 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.83 | $13,500 | 1.39 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 17.51 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.86 | $15,500 | 1.13 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 14.99 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.83 | $11,000 | 1.36 |
| David Montgomery | DET | 13.07 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.98 | $13,000 | 1.01 |
| Riley Patterson | DET | 8.20 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.95 | $8,500 | 0.96 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 7.40 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.48 | $6,500 | 1.14 |
| Josh Reynolds | DET | 7.14 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.55 | $8,000 | 0.89 |
| Marvin Jones | DET | 7.04 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.14 | $10,500 | 0.67 |
| Lions | DET | 3.97 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.24 | $7,500 | 0.53 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | 3.94 | $800 | $1,200 | 4.93 | $7,000 | 0.56 |
| James Mitchell | DET | 1.94 | $200 | $300 | 9.70 | $5,000 | 0.39 |
| Craig Reynolds | DET | 1.45 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 0.81 | $5,000 | 0.29 |
| Brock Wright | DET | 0.80 | $600 | $900 | 1.33 | $5,500 | 0.15 |
| Antoine Green | DET | 0.65 | $200 | $300 | 3.25 | $5,000 | 0.13 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 23.39 | $12,200 | $18,300 | 1.92 | $18,000 | 1.30 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 16.44 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 1.37 | $15,000 | 1.10 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | 13.12 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.93 | $11,500 | 1.14 |
| Kadarius Toney | KC | 8.87 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.27 | $9,500 | 0.93 |
| Skyy Moore | KC | 8.36 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.74 | $8,000 | 1.05 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | 8.24 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.87 | $9,500 | 0.87 |
| Jerick McKinnon | KC | 8.11 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.45 | $9,000 | 0.90 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | 6.65 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.23 | $10,000 | 0.67 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 6.35 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.76 | $7,500 | 0.85 |
| Chiefs | KC | 6.18 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.63 | $9,000 | 0.69 |
| Justin Watson | KC | 2.97 | $200 | $300 | 14.85 | $6,000 | 0.50 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 2.87 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 0.62 | $7,000 | 0.41 |
| Richie James | KC | 2.80 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.40 | $6,500 | 0.43 |
| Noah Gray | KC | 2.61 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.09 | $5,500 | 0.47 |
| Justyn Ross | KC | 1.73 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.73 | $5,500 | 0.31 |
| Blake Bell | KC | 0.75 | $200 | $300 | 3.75 | $5,000 | 0.15 |
Fantasy Sleepers
As noted above, so much of this slate hinges on the availability of Kelce. The lineup somewhat builds itself if you take him out of the player pool. However, the sleepers that should fly under the radar regardless of Kelce’s availability are the non-starting running backs on both teams. David Montgomery is expected to fill the valuable Williams role from last year, which could lead to a lot of work near the goal line. On Kansas City’s side, Isiah Pacheco is set to garner ownership, but Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are looking like interesting contrarian options. So much of Showdown comes down to who scores the touchdowns, and we could easily see Montgomery, McKinnon, and/or Edwards-Helaire find their way into the endzone.
TNF Player Props
Harrison Butker more than 1.5 field goals made (1.88x on Sleeper)
While I likely won’t be building a ton of lineups with kickers in DFS, Butker has my favorite player prop on the slate. He’s one of the best kickers in the league, and we can expect the Chiefs to move the ball at will in a home matchup against the Lions. If Kelce ends up being out, that takes away their biggest red zone weapon. Even if he’s active, I still like Butler to attempt at least two field goals.
Final Thoughts on Showdown Strategy
While I would love to point you in a certain direction, there’s only so much we can do until we know the availability of Kelce. If he’s out, Justin Watson and Noah Gray will both see a major uptick in snaps and targets. Additionally, the wide receivers would soak up some of the target share that Kelce would leave in his absence. In order to combat the Lions pass rush, we could see Mahomes utilize his running backs a bit more in the passing game.
Personally, I am hoping that Kelce is able to suit up. If he’s out, the plays become all too obvious. With that said, I am pumped to have the NFL back in our lives!